Sidmouth care home outbreak - why?

[crunchy37]

I’ve been reading reports that there has been an outbreak of Covid at a care home in Sidmouth and three people have sadly died:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-56372847

According to the report, ‘the "vast majority" of residents and staff had received the first dose of vaccine, which "may have helped prevent an even worse situation".’

So why has this happened and why is there a police investigation into the outbreak?

This article from just three days ago seems very poignant now

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sidmouth-the-seaside-town-that-covid-forgot-kxjg6qlqf

About 50% of transmission is from asymptomatic people too

Where is that stat from please @ParadiseIsland ? Do you have a research link please

The residents may have been vaccinated too recently for it to have been effective, or those who had died may have not had the vaccine for whatever reason.

I assume the police involvement means there’s something more complicated we haven’t been told about. Maybe someone who had tested positive or been told to isolate by T&T had gone to work or to visit?

Sorry, quote didn't work - that was in response to notrub

MrsTerryPratchett That would be horrendous, it had crossed my mind but tbh I'd discounted it as being a thought produced by my anxiety and not rational...

Yes another reason for police involvement would be staff forced/coerced to work whilst having tested positive, testing not carried out or fraudulent results entered etc.

There was another home last year with a high number of deaths from COVID in the Isle of Man and the police investigated whether prosecutions could be brought under health and safety legislation www.carehomeprofessional.com/arrests-made-in-investigation-into-covid-care-home-deaths/

@ParadiseIsland

Currently the virus is believed by some to be mainly transmitted through aerosols in the air. No Less so from contact. Hand washing may thus I will have a lower impact than opening Windows.

Some experts believe that as much as About 50% of transmission is may be from asymptomatic people too.

If it raises questions it’s about the efficacy of the vaccine.
The vaccines are known to be less effective in the very old so these deaths aren't that surprising.

And. A potential increase of asymptomatic transmission

There - fixed it for you!

As pp said, people are moving into care homes every day; it’s not a static community.

Also homes differ - there may have been many residents who were very frail or near end of life who would have been felled by any infection, even norovirus.

Staff turnover is huge too. A bank nurse or casual carer/cook/domestic coming in may not have been vaccinated.

[quote Tambourinetunes]There was another home last year with a high number of deaths from COVID in the Isle of Man and the police investigated whether prosecutions could be brought under health and safety legislation www.carehomeprofessional.com/arrests-made-in-investigation-into-covid-care-home-deaths/[/quote]
That’s interesting. Wonder what sort of breach of health and safety legislation would incur a prosecution?

Not wearing ppe? Not keeping residents 2m apart? A member of staff going to work with a cough?

"Human rights group Amnesty International told MailOnline it suspects the resurgence of the virus in care homes is linked to the Government's controversial policy to continue to send Covid patients discharged from hospitals back into care homes.

Under the scheme, designed to free up hospital beds and protect the NHS, care homes which pass inspection and are deemed Covid-secure are asked to house infected patients"

They're still releasing covid positive patients directly into care homes.

Stats widely quoted for vaccine efficacy are probably quite a bit less for older people as they don't respond as well to vaccines. It's why the overt 65's have a separate flu vaccine with an adjuvant.
This group are usually very frail with several co-morbidities and are often at the end of life.
Carers haven't been massively forthcoming for vaccination too I believe.

@notrub, do you have some research papers or even comments from researchers to prove your point?

Because the research I have disagree with you. But I’m opened to be enlightened.

FWIW my understanding is that the fomites explanation is about 1 year old and has been discredited.

The involvement of the police DOES NOT MEAN a crime has been committed.

It doesn't even mean a crime is LIKELY to have been committed.

This kind of investigation is fairly routine - google Operation Koper if interested.

[quote ParadiseIsland]@notrub, do you have some research papers or even comments from researchers to prove your point?

Because the research I have disagree with you. But I’m opened to be enlightened.

FWIW my understanding is that the fomites explanation is about 1 year old and has been discredited.[/quote]
You made a series of unproven claims, not I.

I happen to also believe that aerosols are the main vector, but that's besides the point - it's not only not proven, it will NEVER be proven because that kind of research is impossible to carry out.

So please desist from stating as fact, opinions you've picked up from the media.

@FlyingBurrito

About 50% of transmission is from asymptomatic people too

Where is that stat from please @ParadiseIsland ? Do you have a research link please

Sorry for the Twitter link but it links directly to the study

twitter.com/trishgreenhalgh/status/1368665859510697989?s=21

Whenever there's been an unexpected death (ie. Doctor hasn't seen the person for 14 days beforehand) police have to inspect the body to make sure there's no foul-play. When my mum died a police officer attended and she had to inspect my mum. It was hard, but she was so sensitive and caring that it didn't feel intrusive.
The fact that a post-mortem is being carried out also suggests that they don't know the cause of death. Just because someone had covid in the 28 days before they died doesn't necessarily mean that that's what caused the death.

My great uncle is in a care home. He had his first jab in January, got covid in February and is just out of hospital now. He'll have his second jab in April if he's well enough.

Covid in care homes is very far from over, and I guess It can only be a good thing if sudden deaths are investigated.

There was a sudden spike of 12,512 "Alzheimer's" deaths during the first peak which don't seem to have been.

Police are always involved in a death aren't they though, when I found DM dead at her house police came round house, paramedics called them, they have to check nothing untoward.

Thank you for the link @ParadiseIsland

The document on the tweet won't open fully for me so can only comment on the tweet itself which says "59% of Covid19 cases are caught from people who have no symptoms at the time "

My understanding is that doesn't mean asypmtomatic only it includes those who later go on to show symptoms, so pre-symptomatic as well

Maybe the research on only asymptomatic isnt available yet

This brings back very bad memories for me as my aunt and uncle died of covid within a week of each other last April . Both died of covid but only one was recorded as covid .

It was the saddest thing . The only compensation was they had lovely carers who were with them at the end . It was devastating for them as well .

I don’t ever want to have to arrange a joint funeral again .

It was such a sad and undignified end for them both .

@saffire
The particular care homes in question in Devon had had no previous cases of covid . Had only had their injections a few weeks before and they have reported they are covid related . One care home lost 9 very quickly so it’s pretty obvious as covid was being suffered by a lot of residents that was the cause .

If you are going to use that argument just look as excess deaths for all the cases is Europe . You will find it’s more than covid reported deaths .

So it does not take much noddle to work things out.

The Independent’s report on this says the police investigation is in response to concerns raised about the quality of care being provided by the home. That suggest somebody has made a complaint, either a relative or a member of staff blowing the whistle.

There are numerous possible explanations for this, including (off the top of my head) residents being neglected because so many staff were off sick with Covid, or sloppy infection control processes which allowed Covid to get in. Equally, there might be nothing wrong at all.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/devon-care-home-covid-outbreak-sidmouth-cqc-b1816410.html

@Nerdygirl

Happened in Hampshire too

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-england-hampshire-55840781

A third of the care home wiped out.

In this article it's very unclear about vaccination at that care home. Also it's dated late January and quite possible that residents weren't long vaccinated; if at all. Immunity takes 3 weeks to kick in and, I believe, more likely 4 weeks for the elderly.

Care homes are complex. We don’t know if some residents refused the vaccine for one. Those with illnesses like Alzheimer’s, there may be moral issues around consent etc.

The case in Hampshire, my Gran-in-law is in that care home. Covid got in about a week & a half after their first Pfizer jabs in January. The doctors & staff my MIL regularly spoke too said it was just desperately unlucky timing. This wasn’t a case of the vaccine failing. Rather, the vaccine just not having enough time to build enough antibodies.

There was research out last week that showed for cancer patients, one dose wasn’t hugely effective & they needed the two doses closer together because their immune systems are none existent from chemo. It may be similar in the 80+ year olds in care homes potentially. They’ll have much weaker immune systems.. some patients will be towards end of life anyway. COVID sadly would just be too much, vaccine or no vaccine.

It’s desperately sad & it was extremely difficult during the covid outbreak in my relatives home. She’s been left slightly traumatised by the loss of so many residents bless her. But even she told my OH on the phone that things like this will happen with this virus & that we can’t ever be safe from death & illness totally. And she’s right. Even with vaccines, covid is here to stay around the world & outbreaks in confined care homes, hospitals etc will happen. In 2019, that care home was closed for 3 weeks on two separate occasions from a norovirus outbreak. One resident died from related causes (severe dehydration my Gran-in-law said). Obviously, noro is less deadly but equally contagious in a confined space!

@tobee - correct, they were only 1.5 weeks post vaccine

The Sidmouth care home was nearly 12 weeks post vaccine though. They were due their second this weekend, their first was in January.

If most of the residents and staff were vaccinated. I think this probably does raise questions about the wisdom of 12 week spacing of the jabs in the elderly. Or at least it should do.