Will cases rise or plateau?

[RosieLemonade]

Just that really? Will we see cases rise or will they just sort of level out?

I think it's fairly obvious cases will rise in the short term. Longer term remains to be seen in terms of vaccine protection and take up.

It's very likely the figures will rise as we get the consequences of transmission via schools.

Some cases will be picked up by testing, which will push the figures up for those days (and some cases won't be picked up, which will likely lead to increased spread in the schools).

I think the expectation is that with schools opening, the number of cases will rise. 'reopening all schools could increase R from an assumed baseline of 0.8 to between 1.0 and 1.5, or to between 0.9 and 1.2 reopening primary or secondary schools alone' (Center for Mathematical Modelling of infectious diseases). I think Prof Whitty said something similar but including the entire road map, not just opening of schools.

They will rise, but unless hospitalization rates rise at the same rate (allowing for delay) everything should go ahead as planned.

That's my understanding.

Will this be in two weeks time or straight away?

If we take September as an example, cases were slow to start of with. In my school (I work in a London large secondary school) there was one case every couple of weeks. Then from mid November onwards it was 2-3 cases a week, then by mid-December it was 1-2 cases a day.

That was obviously due to the new variant, which took us all by surprise. It's so much more contagious.

I think it will take more like 3-4 weeks to show, then it will be Easter so it will come down again.

I personally think cases will plateau or start dropping more slowly, not rise.

All the modelling put forward by SAGE ignores impact of seasonality which I believe is more significant than what we have so far assumed. It is a known and documented model assumption.

Opened schools will push the R rate up but, hopefully, this trend might be offset by the arrival of the spring season.

Rise, but as long as hospitalisations don’t follow, it’s all good.

It's not all good if cases rise and hospitalisation doesn't follow. Of course it's good in a way, but many scientists are cautious because it would allow the virus to mutate and potentially evade the vaccine.

I know that new vaccines can me tweeked, but it would take months to re-vaccinate everyone again, and we'd see more deaths, and more lockdowns.

Children and most parents of school children aren't vaccinated so the numbers will probably rise, hopefully the better weather and increased testing plus masks will keep things in control while we get all the adults vaccinated.

Chris Whitty just saying ( bbc news) another wave either in summer or autumn.

I don't think it matters about cases. They could rise without an associated impact on hospitalisations or deaths, especially now we have vaccinated a good proportion of people most likely to be seriously ill.

Detected cases will rise due to mass testing of millions of asymptomatic pupils, but that doesn't necessarily mean that there is a net rise in actual cases.

Realistically, there will be some increased actual net transmission in schools, not least among the adults there, but that will be very much less than up to now due to the continual mask wearing.

Bear in mind that schools are not the only relaxations in rules taking place right now or in the next few weeks.

plateau a bit i reckon. But it's not long until the Easter hols when we can see other people outside but indoor mixing of pretty much all kinds will be banned for kids again.
Once easter holidays end and kids back in school the vaccine situation will be several weeks further on than it is now.

I think cases will rise, what is perhaps more important is what happens to hospital admissions and deaths.

It's very likely the figures will rise as we get the consequences of transmission via schools.

Well in Scotland Nicola sturgeon has decided its safe for 50 people to gather indoors for communal worship, this is before all our children are even back in school. All in time for Ramadan and Easter. Still not allowed your mum round for a coffee though . They can bugger off if they start blaming schools again where masks must be worn all day and 2m social distancing observed at all times.

@MoriParty

It's very likely the figures will rise as we get the consequences of transmission via schools.

Well in Scotland Nicola sturgeon has decided its safe for 50 people to gather indoors for communal worship, this is before all our children are even back in school. All in time for Ramadan and Easter. Still not allowed your mum round for a coffee though . They can bugger off if they start blaming schools again where masks must be worn all day and 2m social distancing observed at all times.

I also thought that was the wrong decision; before exam sitting kids are back to school properly WTF?!

I think they will rise now large gatherings are taking place where the majority haven’t had the vaccine.

It’s not just hospital admissions that are important, the more cases the more risk of new variants that evade the vaccines and more with long covid that put strain on the nhs elsewhere.

Numbers of cases will definitely rise. Hopefully deaths will come down a lot due to so many seniors being vaccinated. There will still be tragic deaths in younger people with and without underlying conditions. I particularly worry about people who work in schools.

Cases fell notably during the November lockdown with schools continuing to be open for all (around specific isolations for bubbles where needed), despite entering the respiritory illness season, having a higher rate of transmision at the start of the lockdown compared to now and no vaccinations.

I can not see any logical reasons why rates would go up significantly now compared to November when social restrictions were about the same as they are now. The rate of decline might tail off a little but that should be mitigated by entering a more favourable season and over a third of the adult populatikn having been vaccinated.

I think there'll probably be a honeymoon period where it looks like we're getting away with it, but by May the direction of travel should be pretty clear.

@BogRollBOGOF

Cases fell notably during the November lockdown with schools continuing to be open for all (around specific isolations for bubbles where needed), despite entering the respiritory illness season, having a higher rate of transmision at the start of the lockdown compared to now and no vaccinations.

I can not see any logical reasons why rates would go up significantly now compared to November when social restrictions were about the same as they are now. The rate of decline might tail off a little but that should be mitigated by entering a more favourable season and over a third of the adult populatikn having been vaccinated.

"I can not see any logical reasons why rates would go up significantly now compared to November"

Kent strain for one - it was just getting going last November.

Cases arent the issue. Its hospital admissions that need to stay low and likely will stay low with the vaccines.

Cases are just someone whose unwell, millions of people get unwell across the globe every day and most of those millions will be a bit crook for a week or two and then back to normal.

I thought that the AZ vaccine provided decent protection against severe disease even for the SA variant, but I am losing track of all the evidence now...

@notrub your last comment is racist.