Why do people keep saying this?

[Stalagmitesstalagtites]

We’re going to keep being in lockdown, how? Why? How would they justify this after vaccines here, and why would they do that?

I have one of those people on my FB. Drives me insane with her ramblings!

I think there is a lot of concern about how effective the vaccine will be in practice.

Sure, in a clinical trial it was approx 90% effective, but often things turn out differently in real life due to the people receiving it in the trial usually being in perfect health and receiving the second dose of it exactly on time etc. In the real world, it's become apparent that the vaccine may have a much lower success rate in some groups. For example recently it's been shown that obese people seem to only be producing 50% of the antibodies that a healthy person creates (and obesity accounts for almost 1 in 3 people in the UK). We don't know what that means yet, but if half the antibodies means half the effectiveness, we may be in trouble. Similarly if similar, less severe numbers occur in overweight people, we'll be in trouble (63% of the UK are overweight or obese). There's also the lack of testing about the 12 week gap between Pfizer vaccine doses, so we don't know whether it'll be as effective as in trials.

I also think there is an element of being unwilling to believe it because it seems too good to be true. Because last summer they were saying we wouldn't be locked down again and yet it happened twice more.

I don't 'keep saying it' like the people you must know, but I do feel that the road map was pretty optimistic. I think that's because Boris Johnson is quite simply a liar... So I don't believe him on this.

The real world data is starting to come in now and it's looking good

Israel have the most data as they have vaccinated so many people
www.google.com/amp/s/m.businesstoday.in/lite/story/pfizer-vaccine-shows-94-efficacy-real-world-study-israel/1/432288.html

But even on out one dose and larger gap the real world data is looking fantastic.

www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/theobserver/commentisfree/2021/feb/28/both-covid-jabs-are-working-well-in-the-real-world-not-just-the-lab

That's not to say there won't be improvements made like boosters and perhaps there will be an adapted vaccine for obese patients one day.

To the OPs point, I thi k the ne erending lockdowners fall into those who don't think covid will go away and those who don't think the government will let it happen. I suppose, broadly, those that don't trust scientists and those that don't trust poloticians.

Because this virus will mutate and we will keep needing slightly altered vaccines. However it won't necessitate more lockdowns I don't think. Possibly just mask wearing or social distancing.

I am saying this to myself. Not because I really believe it but because I cant have my hopes up and dashed again.

Realistic concerns about too rapid easing causing mutations that evade the vaccine. Concerns we don’t know how well they work especially against variants or cut transmission yet.

I hope they work with no trouble and this doesn’t happen, but I am mentally prepared for it happening if we unlock too soon and realistically I’m ready for what happens to be somewhere in the middle of those two.

I understand some people feel better ignoring the science, some of us feel better paying attention to prepare ourselves.

I respect all opinions. All methods of coping.

Let’s try to get along.

To summise, I’m cautiously hopeful.

And I hate lockdowns! I’m no lockdowner! Who is!? I want to take measures to avoid more

I'm sick of hearing about bloody mutations. We cant stay in forever and businesses can't afford to stay closed for ever . We are in a better position then people who have had to live through pandemics before. A year in and we already have vaccines that are showing really good results yet people still want to stay inside for the foreseeable

I think a lot of the country has collective PTSD. Boris Johnson was so cheerful and optimistic and I just felt like “yeah, okay, I’ve seen this show before” because we’ve already had two lockdowns and been told we wouldn’t need another. I just can’t bring myself to get my hopes up again, it was so awful last time.

I don’t think people in general trust the government anymore, the reduction in infections seems to being put down to the vaccines when the lockdown could well account for it, time will tell I guess. There are still so many in answered questions regarding the vaccine including longevity and efficacy due to newness of the vaccine.

If the vaccines don't work (I think they will BTW) then we are pretty much stuffed aren't we? life cannot continue as we are indefinitely. Will it literally then become survival of the fittest?

Because the latest SAGE modelling indicates we could have problems again.

My question is why do people over estimate the power of the vaccines?

Good grief life won't be worth living if all these restrictions carry on much longer. People get sick and people die, it's part of the condition of living. Ffs! Why are we protecting all the fat and old people at the expense of everyone else? At the expense of everyone being able to earn money and live a normal life!!! I've spent the last year trying to stay slim fit active and mentally well do that I don't become a burden to myself and others. I've lost the love of my life during this dreadful situation after spending months not being physically close to her to shield her. I can't do this any more. Please let the restrictions end.

It's a virus. It will be with us for the foreseeable. It will keep mutating, it's what viruses do. It will continue to kill people and it will cause Long Covid in some that survive. I don't wish anyone any ill and I don't want to get sick myself. But I want to be able to see my loved ones and travel beyond my home town. I'm going to go and see my loved ones soon, I can't take much more of the government telling me I can't see people. Can't hug people.

People who are fat and old are loved ones too.

My question is why do people over estimate the power of the vaccines?

Maybe its optimisim or wish ful thinking, because without them we are really no different than we were 12 months ago and the thought of having to continue the way we are for the foreseeable is actually quite hard to comprehend.

I don’t believe there will be more lockdowns. However I am the sort of person that would prefer to think cautiously and then be presently surprised later on.

Sorry that should say pleasantly surprised!

@EveryFlightBeginsWithAFall

I'm sick of hearing about bloody mutations. We cant stay in forever and businesses can't afford to stay closed for ever . We are in a better position then people who have had to live through pandemics before. A year in and we already have vaccines that are showing really good results yet people still want to stay inside for the foreseeable

Completely agree. We can't stay living under these extremely strong restrictions on the basis of a what if?? This fat person wants to see her family.

In the real world, it's become apparent that the vaccine may have a much lower success rate in some groups. For example recently it's been shown that obese people seem to only be producing 50% of the antibodies that a healthy person creates (and obesity accounts for almost 1 in 3 people in the UK). We don't know what that means yet, but if half the antibodies means half the effectiveness, we may be in trouble. Similarly if similar, less severe numbers occur in overweight people, we'll be in trouble (63% of the UK are overweight or obese). There's also the lack of testing about the 12 week gap between Pfizer vaccine doses, so we don't know whether it'll be as effective as in trials.

I'm interested in reading the evidence for this as you seem very confident. Could you link it please? I've looked and the only article I'm aware of is the Guardian one that talks about the Italian study that says that the second dose of the Pfizer vaccine might produce up to 50% less antibodies and that might mean obese people need a booster. It hasn't been peer reviewed yet either.
Is there another more conclusive study than this?

I don't think it's unreasonable for people to feel wary about going into or remaining in another lockdown. Not everyone pins their hopes and dreams on a vaccine.

If the vaccines had all failed, where would we be? Living like this for the next couple of years?
Wouldn't the majority of people say enough?
When do we stop staying alive and start living?

Maybe its optimisim or wish ful thinking yes precisely. A lot of 'positivity' is people protecting their own mental health. That's fine, but it is no more right than doom and gloom.

The SAGE modelling is still pretty worrying with vaccines factored in. That modelling could turn out to be pessimistic, optimistic, or about right.

I understand people hoping but I get itchy at certainty because none of us know.

Wouldn't the majority of people say enough? Probably not. I think a significant minority would but basically we would get an extreme mental health reaction if there were no end in sight combined with high risk and many people will retreat not advance in that scenario.