Brazilian new variant found in Scotland and South Glous

[PicsInRed]

That's it really.

Brazilian variant found here. Scotland and South Gloucestershire. Just breaking on Sky news.

Is this variant still considered vaccine resistant?

Poo.

Here:

news.sky.com/story/covid-19-new-brazil-covid-variant-of-concern-discovered-in-uk-health-officials-say-12231996

It had to be sequenced so it arrived a couple weeks ago.

Eek. It’s like whackamole, and South Glos is a bit closer to home than SA or Brazil.

Isn’t there some principle, though, that viruses generally mutate to be more transmissible but less deadly? Or have I got that wrong?

Isn’t there some principle, though, that viruses generally mutate to be more transmissible but less deadly?

Yes, there’s no real advantage to a virus that kills its host so quickly that it can’t spread. Those strains which spread more quickly tend to become the dominant ones. The problem is more transmissible strains can infect more people so they can still cause more deaths overall.

@PurpleDaisies

Isn’t there some principle, though, that viruses generally mutate to be more transmissible but less deadly?

Yes, there’s no real advantage to a virus that kills its host so quickly that it can’t spread. Those strains which spread more quickly tend to become the dominant ones. The problem is more transmissible strains can infect more people so they can still cause more deaths overall.

Ah yes. Thanks. I actually remember the process of learning all that two months ago.

This is getting very circular.

very convenient timing of the announcement after a weekend of people enjoying the sun and the lowest case and death numbers we have had in a long time... cue the panic, all viruses mutate we are the only country looking so in-depth into new variants no where else seems to care!

@Katie517

very convenient timing of the announcement after a weekend of people enjoying the sun and the lowest case and death numbers we have had in a long time... cue the panic, all viruses mutate we are the only country looking so in-depth into new variants no where else seems to care!

Convenient?

South Glous is certainly far too close! Let's hope Bristol isn't subject to the strategy from the movie Outbreak. 😂

Isn’t there some principle, though, that viruses generally mutate to be more transmissible but less deadly?

I think the issue with covid is that a potentially long incubation period combined with asymptomatic infections means it has LESS reproductive and evolutionary pressure to be less deadly. It infects enough people before any death to continue to spread and replicate.

My biggest concern though, is more lockdown.

Do the vaccines cover this variant though?

South Glous is certainly far too close! Let's hope Bristol isn't subject to the strategy from the movie Outbreak. 😂

The pilots! I remember that! (One of those actors later played the tech nerd in Homeland.)

Looking at the scientists I follow I on Twitter, yes the vaccines cover it

@Teenageromance

Do the vaccines cover this variant though?

Yes, thought to be less effective against this one, but yes.

... and this is why we need to close our borders.

@PicsInRed

South Glous is certainly far too close! Let's hope Bristol isn't subject to the strategy from the movie Outbreak. 😂

Isn’t there some principle, though, that viruses generally mutate to be more transmissible but less deadly?

I think the issue with covid is that a potentially long incubation period combined with asymptomatic infections means it has LESS reproductive and evolutionary pressure to be less deadly. It infects enough people before any death to continue to spread and replicate.

My biggest concern though, is more lockdown.

Yes, also I heard that it doesn’t need to become less deadly because it can spread in the days before symptoms appear (thus the need for isolation as soon as you know you’re a contact).

Where in Scotland?

This news pops up because we do a lot of variant sequencing in this country. Mutations arise all the time, and it's those that occur in the regions of the virus protein targeted by the vaccines that are of more interest. The vaccines will elicit antibody production to many areas of the virus protein though, so if one mutation affects one region so that an antibody will no longer recognise that area, there will be other antibodies that will recognise the rest of it, so a mutation in itself doesn't knock out the effectiveness of the vaccines altogether, but may slightly reduce it. New vaccines that will cover the main important mutations that are becoming more prevalent, are being designed and made currently and we will likely move towards a cocktail so that the vaccines in the winter and beyond are representative of the sequences in circulation.
The vaccination program aims to reduce severe illness, hospitalisation and death rather than 100% protection from infection.
People don't need to be alarmed. Carrying on good hand and respiratory hygiene is important - is really helping against flu also this year.

Aberdeen isn’t it? Of course they flew in via Paris and London, spreading their germs as they went...

It was a flight into Aberdeen. There don't seem to be further details released to the public.

Apparently one of the three from S.Glous they have no onward details at all as he didn't fill in some card?! So they've followed up 2 for tracing, but not him, can't. Is that true? Can't be, surely.

I also should add that these mutations occur spontaneously, so a mutation first described as 'Brazilian' just means it was first identified in a Brazilian patient. If it's then found elsewhere, it doesn't mean it came from Brazil - although that could have happened, it is also highly possible that it occurred locally.

I'm really worried about this, can anyone reassure me?! Trying to find out online if the scientists believe that this Brazilian variant will evade the current vaccines or not?

The thing is, these are just the ones that have been identified. The fact that this strain has been identified numerous times in the UK means that there are highly likely to be other people who have it that they don't know about it.

In other words, unless you completely close international borders indefinitely (which is tough given how much trade comes into the UK on trucks driven by living breathing people from other countries), these variants are going to spread all over the world. It's inevitable. That's why ensuring EVERY country in the world gets enough vaccines is so important. One or two or ten countries doing really well isn't enough.

It's also why people should be wary of scaremongering headlines about foreign variants being found here.

Just the ones we know about maybe but can they be used to halt any easing of restrictions etc if the are putting vaccine effectiveness at risk?

@PurpleDaisies

Isn’t there some principle, though, that viruses generally mutate to be more transmissible but less deadly?

Yes, there’s no real advantage to a virus that kills its host so quickly that it can’t spread. Those strains which spread more quickly tend to become the dominant ones. The problem is more transmissible strains can infect more people so they can still cause more deaths overall.

There is no such principle. A highly lethal virus which killed the host before they had time to spread it wouldn’t be very efficient at spreading, so a mutation which was somewhat less lethal would have the advantage of being able to spread more easily. There is no evidence that this virus has evolved to become less lethal, in fact wasn’t there some evidence that the Kent variant was actually more so? There is no evolutionary pressure on it to kill fewer people as it’s extremely transmissible before the host is even unwell, it doesn’t matter what happens to the host after they have become infected and passed it on.

@PicsInRed

It was a flight into Aberdeen. There don't seem to be further details released to the public.

Apparently one of the three from S.Glous they have no onward details at all as he didn't fill in some card?! So they've followed up 2 for tracing, but not him, can't. Is that true? Can't be, surely.

I think they didn't register their test card rather than the flight card.

Is this variant still considered vaccine resistant

For goodness sake. It was never deemed vaccine resistant. It, like all the other variants, vaccines “may be” less effective against. Less effective does not mean vaccine resistant. And viruses mutate all the time, so they will not know until they have done all the required tests.

Because may be less effective, also means may be just as effective or even may be more effective. That’s what maybe means

People really need to stop this hysterical scare mongering. It’s not on. At no stage ever has it been said to be vaccine resistant.

@luckyduckling

Just the ones we know about maybe but can they be used to halt any easing of restrictions etc if the are putting vaccine effectiveness at risk?

This is my biggest fear. More lockdown. Indeterminate lockdown.