Sorry if this has already been posted but....festivals ?

[catherineofarrogance80]

Logically today we are not allowed to sit on our garden with a friend
And in a few months we can stand in a field with thousands of people
Do we think it's worth buying tickets at all?

Why would there be 'huge' numbers of unvaccinated adults by late summer?

These festivals mainly attract teenagers, are 15-18 year olds getting vaccinated ? I didn't think they were unless there was pre existing conditions?

Take up is expected to be lower in younger age groups, if so there could be significant numbers of unvaccinated people.

I refused to buy DD tickets for reading or leeds because I don't feel it will be safe this year. Id much rather she wait until next year.

@covetingthepreciousthings

Why would there be 'huge' numbers of unvaccinated adults by late summer?

These festivals mainly attract teenagers, are 15-18 year olds getting vaccinated ? I didn't think they were unless there was pre existing conditions?

I don't know a lot about these festivals but this is from the Reading Festival website

"AGE POLICY

13.All Under 16s must be accompanied by an adult ticket holder (aged 18 or over) This adult must remain on site throughout the whole weekend as the under 16-year-old’s guardian. No unaccompanied under 16s are allowed on site."

I doubt many teens would want to attend a festival with mum or dad so I expect the majority will be 17 or older.

Yes, I would have thought that the risks to lower age groups of the virus are lower so less incentive to vaccinate. If there is resistance amongst older age groups and high risk groups already then it could be considerably higher in the younger groups. Also are under 18s banned from festivals? I think probably not and they won't have been vaccinated. Also, many of the younger age group will have had one jab not two so protection not as good as it could be.

I can understand why young people are desperate for some excitement though. The risk of the virus is low to them and they are stuck with lots of restrictions.

PS - by 'resistance' I meant refusal of 'vaccine hesitancy' as it is being called!

@MGMidget

ChameleonClara, where did you see the government modelling on cases rising from September? I am interested to see that and keep track of their predictions and others might be too. I would have predicted that myself but it all seems to be tidily being swept away at the moment. I'm trying to make decisions for next winter on what to do regarding my DD's education! The Government's roadmap conveniently ends in the summer....

Sorry missed this - the SAGE modelling covered four options for unlocking.

The one closest to the government plans (not absolutely the same) showed significant deaths from September.

The fourth option which involved a more restricted summer had far fewer deaths. The 'unlock fully in April model' had over 100k deaths and a peak worse than January - despite the vaccines to date.

It's a choice. The government has chosen a medium number of deaths, and rejected a high number of deaths and a low number of deaths.

@ChameleonClara

Take up is expected to be lower in younger age groups, if so there could be significant numbers of unvaccinated people.

But they're also much less likely to need hospitalisations

Of course @TrustTheGeneGenie but when you get too much spread these things happen:

• virus more likely to reach the vulnerable who couldn't vaccinate
• virus more likely to reach the older vaccinated, of whom some will die despite vaccination
• young people have nasty illness
• virus more likely to mutate

Basically cases are either rising or they are falling and rising cases is non-ideal.

The government have made their choice, they are aiming for medium deaths.

@ChameleonClara

Of course *@TrustTheGeneGenie* but when you get too much spread these things happen:

• virus more likely to reach the vulnerable who couldn't vaccinate
• virus more likely to reach the older vaccinated, of whom some will die despite vaccination
• young people have nasty illness
• virus more likely to mutate

Basically cases are either rising or they are falling and rising cases is non-ideal.

The government have made their choice, they are aiming for medium deaths.

How likely is any of that?

Worth cancelling life for?

I doubt many teens would want to attend a festival with mum or dad so I expect the majority will be 17 or older.

I live locally to one of these festivals and groups of mid-teens (14-17) going with a single token parent is quite common.

Well it is built in to government modelling so pretty likely yes. Or where do you think the winter deaths will come from? They come from the virus spreading.

I have said nothing about cancelling life. I am just stating a reality.

The government has chosen to allow large events this summer. Deaths in winter will be higher than if they had not chosen this.

People not letting their teenagers go to a festival because it won't be safe.... from Covid. Ok!

Sorry, that was in answer to the question 'how likely is any of this?'

@ChameleonClara

Well it is built in to government modelling so pretty likely yes. Or where do you think the winter deaths will come from? They come from the virus spreading.

I have said nothing about cancelling life. I am just stating a reality.

The government has chosen to allow large events this summer. Deaths in winter will be higher than if they had not chosen this.

Ok, so you'd rather keep everyone locked up for lower deaths?

And then more deaths from poverty along with lower life expectancy etc?

Mutations are what worry me. I can't help wondering if even the godawful eat out to help out, which at least kept people local, might be better than big festivals with hundreds of thousands of people moving right across the country. We can stop being locked up, but still be selective about which things go ahead, and Reading and Leeds don't seem a great choice for this year.

We can not stop living to save everyone from covid.

We have tickets to a big wrestling convention at Liverpool exhibition centre in may, it feels a lot less likely that this will go ahead, but it was postponed from last may so if it's on we'll go. Even though ds1 is more fussed on football than wrestling these days. 😒

@Mycatismadeofstringcheese

I’m sure the people of Reading and Leeds can’t wait for 200,000 unvaccinated teenagers to descend on their towns.

What can possibly go wrong?

🙈 I do agree with you... although Dd(17) has bought a ticket. It all seems a bit crazy to me, but I'm glad they have something to look forward to.

According to The Times yesterday the government is considering underwriting the cancellation of festivals this year so they must be pretty sure they stand a good chance of going ahead.

All my re-booked tickets are for things happening in Oct and Nov 21 so really hoping they will go ahead because if we are still in lockdown by then i think i will have completely lost the will to live. Slightly dramatic but hey!

outdoor events in the summer

bring it on

:)

YOLO

Ok, so you'd rather keep everyone locked up for lower deaths?

This is where I lose respect @TrustTheGeneGenie - this is an easy and lazy remark to throw around.

I said upthread I have said nothing about cancelling life'

These are choices. The government has chosen medium deaths, not low deaths or high deaths. Large events will contribute to that choice. We will have to see how that looks and feels in winter 21/22.

@ChameleonClara

Ok, so you'd rather keep everyone locked up for lower deaths?

This is where I lose respect @TrustTheGeneGenie - this is an easy and lazy remark to throw around.

I said upthread I have said nothing about cancelling life'

These are choices. The government has chosen medium deaths, not low deaths or high deaths. Large events will contribute to that choice. We will have to see how that looks and feels in winter 21/22.

But that's essentially what you're saying you want?

We cannot save everyone. Not without killing more people in the long run.