Page 9 | The Road Map: It’s Bollocks, Right?

cantkeepawayforever · 28/02/2021 12:05

What you have said is why I am so pleased to have such a well thought out plan. A long slow roll out. Where we don't fully relax until everyone has had their second jab with a 3 week wait for it to be fully effective.

As i said earlier, I think the THEORETICAL plan isn't too bad. However, the way that the Great British public will act because of the plan being communicated could completely scupper it - for example by taking the return to school as a green light to unlimited social mixing for children outside school and to return to work out of the home for adults. T

There is a THEORETICAL gap between each step, but in fact it is very likely that many people will hugely anticipate each step and thus defeat the purpose of the gaps.

Paquerette · 28/02/2021 15:42

YANBU.

As hardly any teachers or parents of school children have even had a first dose of vaccine, it really seems insane.

It would have been a far better idea to have had each year group into school for one morning or afternoon of outdoor PE for the last three weeks of term. The rest of their lessons would remain as they already are. That way they would still get to see their classmates, but it would give more time for teachers and parents to get vaccinated before the return to school in April.

ResIpsaLoquiturInterAlia · 01/03/2021 16:00

We are now in spring and already there is the first (of perhaps many) road blocks or potential u turns as apparently the Brazilian variant(s) has arrived and recorded already within the UK prompting mass surge testing in certain localities and a hunt for one recent international arrival who did not or evaded the immigration health reporting requirements but is apparently a carrier of this more challenging Brazilian variant. This person is "somewhere" in the country probably spreading it already as that is how pandemic starts.

news.sky.com/story/covid-news-live-latest-uk-updates-12232389

Poorlykitten · 01/03/2021 18:08

I don’t know why people are so sure this road map with unfold without any hiccups. Variants will always appear, some unfortunately will be hard to deal with. This won’t change until the whole world is vaccinated....we really are in this for the very long haul.

LastTrainEast · 01/03/2021 18:32

Every single decision regarding covid has been a compromise. That's the way it is. People keep saying "but wouldn't it be safer to to do this" and yes it probably would! but you have to take everything else into account.

I have no idea if this decision is the best one for now since I don't have the data they are basing it on and nor does anyone else here. They can't be 100% sure either since it's still based on estimates, but their guess IS better than mine in this case.

People say that Boris is making decisions that favour the economy like that's a bad thing. Where do they think the money comes from that buys their food etc?

JeannetteR · 02/03/2021 03:23

We will not know the truth of this until the ONS 'attempts' to unpick the numbers (fully) and the overall excess death rate is known. In US the CDC have already stated that covid deaths only comprise 6% of all deaths - how that pans out I couldn't say, but it is less than is stated on the media.

happymummy12345 · 02/03/2021 14:28

Yes it's the biggest load of nonsense I've ever heard and I'm not happy at all

PrincessNutNuts · 02/03/2021 15:23

@JeannetteR

We will not know the truth of this until the ONS 'attempts' to unpick the numbers (fully) and the overall excess death rate is known. In US the CDC have already stated that covid deaths only comprise 6% of all deaths - how that pans out I couldn't say, but it is less than is stated on the media.

There are only two years in the last 182 where the U.K. had more than 600,000 domestic deaths: 1918 and 2020.

The U.K. was under the 5 year average for the first couple of months of 2020 but finished with one of the largest excess death totals in the world.

I can't find your CDC covid 3% figure. As far as i know 2020 was the USA's deadliest year on record with a 15% rise in deaths on the previous year.

nonono1 · 02/03/2021 15:24

We are now in spring and already there is the first (of perhaps many) road blocks or potential u turns as apparently the Brazilian variant(s) has arrived and recorded already within the UK prompting mass surge testing in certain localities and a hunt for one recent international arrival who did not or evaded the immigration health reporting requirements but is apparently a carrier of this more challenging Brazilian variant.

Well, how fucking convenient. We’re never going to get out of this shit are we?

nonono1 · 02/03/2021 15:27

I can’t go on like this anymore - Brazilian variant or not, enough is enough, we need to get back to normal life as set out in the (painfully slow) roadmap because this is not living.

PrincessNutNuts · 02/03/2021 15:28

@LastTrainEast

Every single decision regarding covid has been a compromise. That's the way it is. People keep saying "but wouldn't it be safer to to do this" and yes it probably would! but you have to take everything else into account.

I have no idea if this decision is the best one for now since I don't have the data they are basing it on and nor does anyone else here. They can't be 100% sure either since it's still based on estimates, but their guess IS better than mine in this case.

People say that Boris is making decisions that favour the economy like that's a bad thing. Where do they think the money comes from that buys their food etc?

We have one of the worst death tolls, the worst economic hit for 300 years, and we've spent a year in restrictions.

How are those compromises working out for you?

It's not theoretical or hypothetical any more. We have a years worth of experience that tells us their way of doing things doesn't work, hasn't worked and sometime in the next fortnight we'll find out 150,000 British people are dead because of it.

I think we've got another year if it to come.

What's the definition of insanity again?!

PrincessNutNuts · 02/03/2021 15:30

@nonono1

I can’t go on like this anymore - Brazilian variant or not, enough is enough, we need to get back to normal life as set out in the (painfully slow) roadmap because this is not living.

Sure. Nothing's gone wrong every time we've done that before.

nonono1 · 02/03/2021 15:31

Sure. Nothing's gone wrong every time we've done that before.

We’re in fucking lockdown in case you didn’t notice and this has still happened. What is the point?

OrangeBlossomsinthesun · 02/03/2021 15:32

I'm in Spain and, although vaccination is slower here (although even then we have more people who have had both doses than the UK), things aren't being talked about in the way they are in the UK, it's a much slower approach to loosening restrictions.

Dongdingdong · 02/03/2021 15:34

(although even then we have more people who have had both doses than the UK), things aren't being talked about in the way they are in the UK, it's a much slower approach to loosening restrictions.

Well, presumably it’s a much slower approach because the Spanish vaccine rollout is much slower!

RosieLemonade · 02/03/2021 15:36

Honestly, how much slower do people want it to go. June would have meant another 6 months of restrictions. If these doom mongers are right in saying we will be in lockdown in October when are they expecting the economy to get any money injected into it.

Dongdingdong · 02/03/2021 15:38

(although even then we have more people who have had both doses than the UK)

It’s been shown that delaying the time between first and second doses makes the AZ vaccine more effective, so I’m not sure what your point is.

Quartz2208 · 02/03/2021 15:39

I dont think you can gauge the speed though of this that is partly the point.

The road map in effect creates a hierarchy of the order in which things are going to open up - it slightly I think nationalises to England the tiers (when you look at what is opening up and when).

We arent doing the same as before - before we just opened up on those dates we didnt have them as the earliest date to do so. Plus the vaccinations are going well and look to be doing exactly what promised (if not slightly more).

Yes the variants are a concern - but at the moment even the AZ one looks to prevent serious disease/hospitalisation for most variants. So if all adults are done and children not getting serious disease.

The roadmap is desgined to be fair to take into account of hiccups by having the dates as the earliest time it would happen. I think it is how it has been interpreted that is the problem people see the date and take it as fact

PrincessNutNuts · 02/03/2021 15:41

@RosieLemonade

Honestly, how much slower do people want it to go. June would have meant another 6 months of restrictions. If these doom mongers are right in saying we will be in lockdown in October when are they expecting the economy to get any money injected into it.

We know that regions in the midlands and the north struggled to get out of restrictions because cases weren't low enough when we came out of Lockdown and into Eat Out To Help Out.

If you want to get out of restrictions it takes as long as it takes

Do it when the numbers aren't low enough and you're setting yourself up to fail. Again.

PrincessNutNuts · 02/03/2021 15:43

@nonono1

Sure. Nothing's gone wrong every time we've done that before.

We’re in fucking lockdown in case you didn’t notice and this has still happened. What is the point?

The point is that opening up prematurely won't improve our situation.

It's the fastest way to create a third wave and lockdown 4.

nonono1 · 02/03/2021 15:46

Well I don’t care anymore, that’s my point. I’ll be seeing my parents at Easter because they’ll have had the vaccine by then and I refuse to live this miserable existence any longer - Brazilian variant or not.

Lovaduck74 · 02/03/2021 15:47

@AllTheWayFromLondonDAMN

So, I feel a bit like I’m going loopy. And I want to preface this by saying that I really hope I’m wrong. We are both secondary teachers with two small kids and this year has been an absolute bitch. Work for us has been hugely full in, whether it’s been in school or online teaching. Our infant school aged children have missed school terribly and their whole lives at this age are all about school, their little pals and their grandparents and cousins, all of whom have been off limits for months. So this has been far from fun for us and I have no desire for this to carry on (before anyone accuses me of that).

BUT this is all bollocks isn’t it? I know that numbers are going down and that we are doing really well with the vaccinations but this road map that Boris has announced.... it’s magical thinking isn’t it?!?! Less than eight weeks ago we were in dire straits, with tens of thousands of cases and more than 1500 people a day dying. This lockdown has choked those numbers down but now... throwing all the schools back in at once?! Telling us that we will be able to open up hospitality in only six weeks or so?! Saying we won’t even have to wear masks in just 16ish weeks?! REALLY? Because whilst I know that the warmer weather will make things better and of course the vaccine is making things better, it just feels a bit to me like Boris has decided that he’s bored of Covid so he’s just announcing that it’ll he done and dusted and we can just forget about it by midsummers day. Which seems.... bonkers. Bonkers when this has been going on a year now and very recently we were in huge trouble. Some areas of the country are still in huge trouble. Are other European countries talking like this? Like we can just say we have all had enough, so we are going to stop Covid?! Because if it was that easy wouldn’t we have done this a year ago?!?!

So am I the mad one who’s just being a pessimistic old boot, or is anyone else finding this whole change of tone just a bit.... weird?

No,you're not the only one. Seems just like getting the children into school last time and we know how well that worked out!

PrincessNutNuts · 02/03/2021 15:50

Yeah @Quartz2208 If the PM does not adhere firmly to these dates Conservative MPs will be all over the news losing their marbles like they were two weeks ago, in order to put pressure on the cabinet.

3 weeks after they insisted we came out of the last lockdown on December 2nd the government had to invent Tier 4 on December 20th then put us back into lockdown in January 5th.

I'd rather not do that again.

Racoonworld · 02/03/2021 15:55

I think a lot of us have reached the end of what we’re prepared to do now and the government know it. They will have to stick to the road map or face mass uncompliance making them look like idiots. I’ve already made plans to see my family and friends and will be sticking to them, in agreement with everyone we know.

Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum · 02/03/2021 15:55

As a very wise scientist was saying earlier:

We do 40% of the worlds sequencing in the UK.

We now sequence one third of all UK test

The mutations are actually slowing down now. Less variants are being made than a few months ago because once a virus gets to its ultimately state of transmission. It spreads well enough that way.

Anyway the general opinion from the experts is the vaccine will still work if not a bit less on transmission. That there is no evidence yet of the vaccine not stopping hospitalisations and deaths with any of these variants

So basically the hype is just that hype. The experts need to chase up anything new. That is why they call them variants of concern because they are a concern until fully researched. Not because they are automatically a game changer.