The Road Map: It’s Bollocks, Right?

[AllTheWayFromLondonDAMN]

So, I feel a bit like I’m going loopy. And I want to preface this by saying that I really hope I’m wrong. We are both secondary teachers with two small kids and this year has been an absolute bitch. Work for us has been hugely full in, whether it’s been in school or online teaching. Our infant school aged children have missed school terribly and their whole lives at this age are all about school, their little pals and their grandparents and cousins, all of whom have been off limits for months. So this has been far from fun for us and I have no desire for this to carry on (before anyone accuses me of that).

BUT this is all bollocks isn’t it? I know that numbers are going down and that we are doing really well with the vaccinations but this road map that Boris has announced.... it’s magical thinking isn’t it?!?! Less than eight weeks ago we were in dire straits, with tens of thousands of cases and more than 1500 people a day dying. This lockdown has choked those numbers down but now... throwing all the schools back in at once?! Telling us that we will be able to open up hospitality in only six weeks or so?! Saying we won’t even have to wear masks in just 16ish weeks?! REALLY? Because whilst I know that the warmer weather will make things better and of course the vaccine is making things better, it just feels a bit to me like Boris has decided that he’s bored of Covid so he’s just announcing that it’ll he done and dusted and we can just forget about it by midsummers day. Which seems.... bonkers. Bonkers when this has been going on a year now and very recently we were in huge trouble. Some areas of the country are still in huge trouble. Are other European countries talking like this? Like we can just say we have all had enough, so we are going to stop Covid?! Because if it was that easy wouldn’t we have done this a year ago?!?!

So am I the mad one who’s just being a pessimistic old boot, or is anyone else finding this whole change of tone just a bit.... weird?

I think the roadmap is okay and in line with vaccinations etc and cases don't really matter etc. However, cases do matter when you have youngish people unable to work because they have covid or lots of teachers self isolating for ten days then cases do matter a great deal!

[quote cherrybunx0]@PrincessNutNuts so viruses exist as part of our world, as shit as it is. maybe the amount of deaths would of been preventable had certain measures been put in place but every avenue was going to equal death and misery for some.

I still think leaving the borders open was the biggest problem we had but it's done now. can only move forward. slowly coming out of lockdown is 100 percent the correct decision.[/quote]
We know those deaths were preventable because so many countries prevented them.

We have one of the worst five covid death tolls on earth however it's counted because almost every other country in the world prevented them better than we did.

SAGE have been called scaremongers all along the way but the actual death toll has always exceeded their projections.

This time SAGE recommend opening up slowly over 9 months to avoid another wave, another 50,000 deaths, another lockdown and closing the schools again.

The government plan is 3 and a half.

I agree with you about all the mistakes made, and about foreign travel @MrsFrisbyMouse.

Deciding that cases don't matter makes us a prime breeding ground for variants of concern, and sensible countries won't want British people travelling inside their borders without all the testing and self isolation palaver.

But when SAGE advise that a slow careful open up over nine months would be best and the government opt for three and a half that can't be called slow and careful.

I like the 5 weeks thing, but the first one has a school holiday in it to bring numbers down and I worry they'll abandon it if things don't go as well as hoped like they did last last summer.

@pussinbootss

I think the roadmap is okay and in line with vaccinations etc and cases don't really matter etc. However, cases do matter when you have youngish people unable to work because they have covid or lots of teachers self isolating for ten days then cases do matter a great deal!

More cases, more variants, more chance of a variant of concern that can evade immunity and make the vaccine rollout an expensive waste of a year.

SAGE have been called scaremongers all along the way but the actual death toll has always exceeded their projections.

Anyone remember the 4000 a day projections? We've never got anywhere near those huge death projections.

Why would we wait for 9 months to open when every adult in the UK will have had 2 jabs by August?

The plan is obviously get every adult their first jab by the end of May. Then open up properly 3 weeks later. Which allows the vaccine to be effective by the time we need it too.

Vaccinations are totally on track even tacking into account second doses. By the 8th March 40% of adults will have had a first dose. All the evidence know shows good protection and transmission blocking even after ons dose.

Add to all that the fact that a large number of people have some immunity because of having caught covid. Then on top of that the fact we are opening up slowly and in five weeks gaps. Plus the daily figures still dropping well. I think SAGE would have rejigged their opinion by now.

Well apart from the odd stubborn pessimist

*Sorry about all the letter jumble I am feeding the baby

No, I think it's totally reasonable, and it certainly IS to soon for people to decide the plan is bollocks, when presumably the vaccine rollout will be done, and hospitalizations are already falling. What else would be waiting for? The economy can't wait forever.

@Dongdingdong

Oh bore off OP and anyone else who wants to stay locked down for the next 20 years. We’re getting back to normal life whether you like it or not!

That's so insulting.OP doesn't want to stay locked down. No one does.

I don't want to do this again. At all. Ever.

Putting all the kids back in school all at once makes this a distinct possibility.

@ILookAtTheFloor

SAGE have been called scaremongers all along the way but the actual death toll has always exceeded their projections.

Anyone remember the 4000 a day projections? We've never got anywhere near those huge death projections.

The SAGE reasonable worst case scenario for this winter was 85,000 covid deaths.

SPI-M modelled a lot of scenarios. All of them predicted more deaths in the second wave than in the first. All predicted a peak of more than 1000 deaths a day.

They inform the reasonable worst case, they're not the reasonable worst case.

"That's so insulting.OP doesn't want to stay locked down. No one does.

I don't want to do this again. At all. Ever.

Putting all the kids back in school all at once makes this a distinct possibility."

This. 1000 times over.

And this
"Life is less likely to get back to normality if we release the lockdown/start schools in this ‘bonkers’ fashion.

With a bit more care, schools could have opened slowly and more safely whilst vaccines had time to take effect and roll out more. "

Forgot to add

If not only Whitty and Van Tam but professor lockdown doomster himself says we have leeway to open schools on the 8th. Well you know this isn't just the government making another mistake.

Consent for the kids to be tested, secondary kids in masks and try to follow the rules yourselves a tad longer. That will all help too.

@Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum

Forgot to add

If not only Whitty and Van Tam but professor lockdown doomster himself says we have leeway to open schools on the 8th. Well you know this isn't just the government making another mistake.

Consent for the kids to be tested, secondary kids in masks and try to follow the rules yourselves a tad longer. That will all help too.

*Neil Fergusson in case anyone is wondering

Agreed @twinkletoesimnot

My kids showed me that #Lockdown4 and #Summer2021IsCancelled were trending on Twitter due to all the teenagers saying how stupid sending everyone back to school at once was. I retweeted a few of them. Their despair at the government fucking it up again was palpable.

Mine and his friends are happy to finally be going back. Most the year 10s have been very anxious about this time missed. They understand it is necessary but exams next year and all that.

@PrincessNutNuts

Agreed *@twinkletoesimnot*

My kids showed me that #Lockdown4 and #Summer2021IsCancelled were trending on Twitter due to all the teenagers saying how stupid sending everyone back to school at once was. I retweeted a few of them. Their despair at the government fucking it up again was palpable.

@princessnutnuts - well if the teenagers are tweeting about it then clearly we are doomed and must ignore Chris Whitty et al 🙄 My teen on the other hand is busy being optimistic about returning to school, choosing her prom dress and deciding which festival she is going to go to! Even if it all goes tits up (which I don’t think it will) at least she hasn’t spent all her time being a doom muppet worrying about things that might never happen!

Being cautious is not a bad thing. Personally I think children's mental health is extremely low at the moment and I certainly wouldn't be getting their hopes up for things like proms and a big summer of music festivals and holidays.

Cautiously plan, yes, but be very aware of the effect on mental health if these plans can no longer go ahead. This isn't being mean or loving lockdowns and restrictions (a very immature response to assume that).

well if the teenagers are tweeting about it then clearly we are doomed and must ignore Chris Whitty et al 🙄

Agree and rest if post. Btw I can’t imagine dc being influenced by parents views of how’s its all going to go wrong..

[quote changi]Perhaps read what was actually announced...

www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-sets-out-roadmap-to-cautiously-ease-lockdown-restrictions[/quote]
Thank you, I find this helpful rather than the media soundbites

@Stellaris22

Being cautious is not a bad thing. Personally I think children's mental health is extremely low at the moment and I certainly wouldn't be getting their hopes up for things like proms and a big summer of music festivals and holidays.

Cautiously plan, yes, but be very aware of the effect on mental health if these plans can no longer go ahead. This isn't being mean or loving lockdowns and restrictions (a very immature response to assume that).

Exactly.

DD is planning to go back to school, and looking forward to seeing her friends, but is completely aware that further periods of self-isolation are possible over the coming weeks.

She has made tentative plans to go on a self-catering break in England in the summer with a group of close friends, but their original plan to go abroad has long since been abandoned and they have gone for an option that fully refunds them if they are not allowed to travel.

She has an offer for her preferred university course, and is planning to take it up in the autumn, but is expecting there still to be some restrictions in place.

She's not a 'doom muppet'. She is not 'worrying about things that might never happen'. She is making plans she is happy about, but isn't ignoring the risks. I think she's very typical of her friends.

(I do think that some people are happier to plan for the best and then deal with any downside if it comes. Others are happier to plan for something less because they know they find the knock-backs harder to weather. Neither approach is 'the only right one'. )

Letting kids have some hopefully things to look forwards to is fine. I am sure all sensible parents will warn them it is subject to the place we are at at the time.

To be honest most the teenagers I have worked with would be very aware we are at a curious place anyway. Not like the don't have silly number of gadgets giving them information these days.

@Stellaris22

Being cautious is not a bad thing. Personally I think children's mental health is extremely low at the moment and I certainly wouldn't be getting their hopes up for things like proms and a big summer of music festivals and holidays.

Cautiously plan, yes, but be very aware of the effect on mental health if these plans can no longer go ahead. This isn't being mean or loving lockdowns and restrictions (a very immature response to assume that).

Agreed.

Those of us who care about young people listen to them rather than belittle them

We've been damaging our children's mental health for a year with the constant disappointments and disruption caused by false optimism.

It's time we acted like grown ups and insist on the government doing it right this time.

@cantkeepawayforever

(I do think that some people are happier to plan for the best and then deal with any downside if it comes. Others are happier to plan for something less because they know they find the knock-backs harder to weather. Neither approach is 'the only right one'. )

How about this