Cases in the North West

[Sallygoround631]

I wonder what other people make of this?

I am from South Lakes, and I have some family in a large urban area between Manchester and Liverpool. Whilst covid isn't too high here in Cumbria at the moment, the more populated areas around me still seem unable to get the cases down.
No matter whether we have endured lockdowns or tier restrictions, the case rates in the NW keep rising, or at least never significantly drop down.

Why?

Many outside of the NW blame 'poverty', but this is a rather sweeping and ignorant presumption; the NW is is a large area with a densely packed population which includes many, many high income families/individuals, so it is difficult to accept this as an over-arching stereotype. Where my family are at present (near Wigan) the cases never seem to drop, but people are largely following restrictions. Many of these high case areas are in higher income postcodes, it isn't so simple as you might think, or easy to predict at this point. But what makes the NW so different, really?

Do less people work from home?
Do people in the NW not conform to rules?
Is it because there are so many large urban areas strung together over a large distance so it's easier to transmit?

I work from home, and did before covid, so it is difficult for me to judge. Most people I know in the NW are following restrictions, but maybe there is a contingent that don't? I know that my family have to avoid Lidl and Asda locally due to no sanitisation/masks, etc, but according to them, most people (neighbours, work friends) are doing their best.

Probably enough people not following the rules to keep.it ticking over?

And when I say the NW is a 'densely packed' area, I don't mean people are living 12 per house like Dickensian shoe shiners. I mean the area is large and varied in income, but each borough has a high population.

Just to be clear :)

Well what you've said doesn't apply to the Lancaster and Morecambe areas of Lancashire does it?

@DavidsSchitt

Well what you've said doesn't apply to the Lancaster and Morecambe areas of Lancashire does it?

no idea what you mean. I can't be specific, just watching the case rates over time for different areas of UK.

I'm from and live in the NW, poverty plays a part, but I'm not sure it's the main reason. I think that it's just very populated. We have 2 massive cities with Liverpool and Manchester and lot of large towns such as Warrington, Oldham, Blackburn, Blackpool etc. It's also a very diverse area with a huge amount of very wealthy and very deprived areas, all add up to a high Covid rate.

It's definitely going down in the area and was consistently low. Despite that, we were lumped in with Lancashire and kept in the highest level of restrictions.

I don’t know exactly where you mean, but the NW is coming down nicely.
The rate for done if these areas was over 1000 at Christmas

Here in Cumbria Carlisle and Barrow have continued to be hotspots for various reasons. The two main hospitals for the county being located here, so many people commuting in and out from all over the county for work, education, retail, leisure. Carlisle's on both the M6 motorway and the West Coast mainline railway. Then you've got tourists visiting the Lakes from all over when not in lockdown.

In urban hotspots you may have a lot of keyworkers and other low paid employees who have to work outside the home.

I live in a less well off area of Carlisle, lots of terraced housing. I've followed the rules strictly, neighbours have to varying degrees. But then my own ultra middle class, well off family living in the lakes have been worse for quietly stretching the rules when it comes to household mixing with other family and friends from elsewhere in the UK and abroad over the last year.

It's definitely a thing to blame those in less well off areas for being 'covidiots' and the bigger part of the problem but not really fair or true. In many ways the greater risk comes from those who are wealthy enough to travel more widely, the first cases identified here in Carlisle came from skiing hols after all and it was no surprise the Kent variant took a hold here when you look at travel routes.

Merseyside also has massive testing, way higher than average

I replied to your similar comment on another thread not realising you'd started this one, but cases are down loads in the NW compared to the start of the year and still falling. This is also true in Manchester, Liverpool, Salford, Trafford, Blackburn, Warrington, Wigan, St. Helens, Preston, Chorley, West Lancs and Halton. The overall falling rates in Bolton and Bury have levelled off a bit but they also have significantly fewer daily cases than they did in January (and both had lower infection rates than the national average in January anyway). So where exactly is this 'large urban area between Manchester and Liverpool' that you're referring to?

Cases in the nw have been falling for a while, some at a lower rate than others but still falling.
Which area are you talking about?

Here in Cumbria Carlisle and Barrow have continued to be hotspots for various reasons.

Cases in Carlisle are down to almost 10% of where they were at the start of January. It's really impressive actually, I think they must have had one of the steepest drops in the country!

@psychomath

I replied to your similar comment on another thread not realising you'd started this one, but cases are down loads in the NW compared to the start of the year and still falling. This is also true in Manchester, Liverpool, Salford, Trafford, Blackburn, Warrington, Wigan, St. Helens, Preston, Chorley, West Lancs and Halton. The overall falling rates in Bolton and Bury have levelled off a bit but they also have significantly fewer daily cases than they did in January (and both had lower infection rates than the national average in January anyway). So where exactly is this 'large urban area between Manchester and Liverpool' that you're referring to?

Thanks for the info, I admit I don't know a great deal, and only access a handful of 'sources' for my covid info! I usually check the uk interactive map and the daily counts on reddit.

I am glad to hear the cases are actually down. They always seem to be the highest across the UK whenever I view charts.

I'm in greater Manchester, the numbers are coming down, but slowly.

We struggled after the first lockdown as our first wave was after London but we came out of it when it wasn't time here, our numbers were higher.

I fear the same will happen this time. I think Boris takes a look at his local news figures and applies them to the entire country.

This is from the ONS

This is Wigan

Some great information here, thank you for sharing these numbers.
I expect I am growing a bit weary and puzzled as time goes on, without seeing a massive drop in cases since the 3rd lockdown it sometimes depresses me.

It is great to hear there's some levelling off in the NW, but I do hope this continues as vaccines roll out and restrictions are decreased. It has always felt like something of a precipice here.

Regarding the replies about Cumbria: I recall it hitting Kendal very early on, a lot of talk about skiing in Italy and whatnot. I was living in Ambleside last March and the place was still heaving with visitors from all over the world. That vanished fairly suddenly though about a week before lockdown!

Back then, it hadn't took hold of areas like Wigan too badly. The rest of the north west seemed to take off as Cumbra got under control, if I remember rightly. Sadly areas like Bolton and St Helens are still struggling after 3 lockdowns. Wigan is up and down in parts.

Sometimes if you look at numbers it looks like a big jump, but you’re just talking about a handful of cases, but as a % of the population of the area it looks like it makes a difference.

@psychomath

Here in Cumbria Carlisle and Barrow have continued to be hotspots for various reasons.

Cases in Carlisle are down to almost 10% of where they were at the start of January. It's really impressive actually, I think they must have had one of the steepest drops in the country!

They have thankfully come down from where they were. I believe the vaccination rollout is going well here, we'll have to see what happens as lockdown lifts (which I'm all for).

@Veuvestar

This is Wigan

Thanks! Is there a way to view this without it being blurred? I don't know how to view it properly.

Someone asked where in the NW was I referring to - I am only familiar with cumbria and the lancs/wigan areas, personally. But I am taking my info from gov sites. The NW gets lumped into one area in many cases so hard to get a breakdown of towns.

Have a look at the government website here, they update every day and you can see the data by region or by smaller towns. It's best to look at the 7 day average (the blue line) because cases from the weekend sometimes don't get recorded til Monday, so if you only look day to day it sometimes looks like there's been a jump from Sunday to Monday.

This is the chart for daily positive tests in the Wigan area, so it is coming down, even if it's not as fast as in some places.

19th jan vs now. They're coming down.

@psychomath

Have a look at the government website here, they update every day and you can see the data by region or by smaller towns. It's best to look at the 7 day average (the blue line) because cases from the weekend sometimes don't get recorded til Monday, so if you only look day to day it sometimes looks like there's been a jump from Sunday to Monday.

This is the chart for daily positive tests in the Wigan area, so it is coming down, even if it's not as fast as in some places.

this is helpful, thank you!

www.wigan.gov.uk/Docs/PDF/Resident/Crime-Emergencies/COVID19-Weekly-Tracker.pdf

I just googled Wigan Covid cases

According to the most recent update from the Council - Wigan, Wrightington and Leigh hospitals have only 68 covid positive patients currently on wards. I wouldn't call that high for the size of the area.