Cases in the North West

[Sallygoround631]

I wonder what other people make of this?

I am from South Lakes, and I have some family in a large urban area between Manchester and Liverpool. Whilst covid isn't too high here in Cumbria at the moment, the more populated areas around me still seem unable to get the cases down.
No matter whether we have endured lockdowns or tier restrictions, the case rates in the NW keep rising, or at least never significantly drop down.

Why?

Many outside of the NW blame 'poverty', but this is a rather sweeping and ignorant presumption; the NW is is a large area with a densely packed population which includes many, many high income families/individuals, so it is difficult to accept this as an over-arching stereotype. Where my family are at present (near Wigan) the cases never seem to drop, but people are largely following restrictions. Many of these high case areas are in higher income postcodes, it isn't so simple as you might think, or easy to predict at this point. But what makes the NW so different, really?

Do less people work from home?
Do people in the NW not conform to rules?
Is it because there are so many large urban areas strung together over a large distance so it's easier to transmit?

I work from home, and did before covid, so it is difficult for me to judge. Most people I know in the NW are following restrictions, but maybe there is a contingent that don't? I know that my family have to avoid Lidl and Asda locally due to no sanitisation/masks, etc, but according to them, most people (neighbours, work friends) are doing their best.

COVID messenger site is very good - you can sort the table by county so you can see at a glance the various boroughs within each county
There are a couple of areas within Cumbria and within Greater Manchester that are rising (compared to this time last week) but everywhere else is falling (and are much lower than at the end of December/start of January)
www.covidmessenger.com/#coronavirusliveupdate

It's the same in Leicester. Cases have obviously dropped but we're still way above the national average...I don't know how there's anyone left here that's not had it since we've been high in the rankings since about June last year! I fear we'll be straight back into tier 4 when this lockdown ends 😩

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/17/englands-poorest-areas-hit-by-covid-perfect-storm-leaked-report?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

Before this current lockdown the Liverpool City Region had some of the lowest rates in the country. There were only a few regions left in tier 2 and we were one of them. I remember seeing a chart that listed the local authorities by rates and the Liverpool city region were right down near the bottom. The only places lower were very rural places. Obviously that’s not the case now but I think it shows it can be done here. It’s an uphill battle in many places just due to the population density.

Cases in very large parts of Lancashire are dropping and are below the average for England as a whole.

I do think that branding the entire north west as an example of 'poverty' is missing the mark somehow, I think it is far more likely to be connected to large populations/towns existing in close proximity (and I do not mean within the same household).
It really does seem to be a stereotype which won't wear off, and pretty much stifles discussion about many other contributing factors.

There are some very depressed areas all across the UK, including Scotland, Wales, etc. Whilst pockets of those exist in the NW, this cannot be the only reason the area is struggling to get cases down.

I am curious though as to why some areas are way above average case rates - Bolton especially. It seems to have had tough restrictions since late last summer and still experiencing high numbers.

Cases are dropping in the Merseyside and Greater Manchester areas at a consistent rate, it just took a while before they dropped in line with the country average.
Cases started to spike here over the new year (it is regularly a few weeks behind London and the SE. A lot has got to do with the NW having many industrial towns were a lot of the population are required to work out the home in factories where infection undoubtedly spreads. I can only judge on the small amount of people I see and hear of but I don't think compliance is a huge problem the majority are complying with the restrictions in place its more a case of demographics

Greater Manchester cases have fallen but not as much as England as a whole. I’ve been tracking closely and the overall region phase only ever declined by 15-20% a week, whereas England overall decline is more like 30% a week. If this continues then GM will be one of the highest areas in the country even though gradually declining.

If anyone came read these...tables from RP131 which show rates by region as of 13 Jan and as of yesterday. Liverpool city region went from 1,007 to 184 in that period, a drop of 82%. Greater Manchester went from 423 to 187, a drop of 56%.