Next week's announcement won't be the good news we think it'll be

[likeamillpond]

Listening to the news and reading between the lines regarding the latest variant that's supposed to be resistant to the vaccine, I don't think it's going to be brilliant news next week.
I dont think it'll be a case of, We've got this. You can all go out now.
Im hoping theyll say for certain that schools can go back. At least.
I think we are still in the shit. They just haven't told us.
I'm prepared to be told I'm worrying over nothing.

@sadpapercourtesan

I am also worried about the newest variant and the possibility of vaccine escape. I don't think we are anywhere near the end of this, personally.

But I will be beyond happy if my 16 and 18yos can go back to college. I can wait, for the rest.

Yep me too. I'm just desperate for DS1 to get back to college, he hasn't been since the end of Nov with a combination of self isolating and college starting online. He managed to squeeze in one day before Christmas having a fish and chips dinner on a bench with a couple of mates . Since then nothing. We don't live in the same town as his college and I feel driving him there for a walk is out of realms of staying local . It just isn't healthy being cooped up with just us oldies for company!

DBML

@DenisetheMenace

That’s not what we’re being told though. We’re constantly hearing about mutations; the need for continued restrictions; no holidays; longer school days; summer school; closing borders; no visiting others; no gyms; must get all groups 1-9 vaccinated, no actually all adults vaccinated, no actually let’s wait for kids too; vaccine passports; LFT before going into a pub or a restaurant...etc etc

Seriously? There is no foreseeable end to this. They’ve even spoke about lockdowns next winter!

We’ve got people losing jobs; committing suicide and long standing companies disappearing. I’m starting to think we’ve gone horribly wrong. How can we keep this up.

We’ve got everyone saying ‘get the kids back to school and we can tolerate everything else’ ....what’s the point? At this rate there’s nothing left for them anyway. We can’t keep wrecking our economy. And adults suffer just as much as kids do. We ALL need out of this circle of lockdowns”

Yes, we do. But if we do it now, too soon, we’re well and truly long-term screwed. In just two months, over 95 %of adults most likely to succumb to serious illness requiring hospitalisation will be vaccinated. The health service will not be under threat by Covid admissions (barring a mutation that is completely resistant to all vaccines, unlikely and can be tweaked within weeks, or which targets younger people and children). All adults will be vaccinated by the autumn.

I agree with much of your sentiment. I just don’t agree with you about timing.

I believe Boris Johnson is an incompetent twat. I can’t actually think of a word rude enough to describe his Education Secretary. I can think of lots of rude words to describe the purely self-interest driven, self-appointed Covid Recovery Group which I don’t believe give a flying f**k about the health of the nation but which I fear will be driving Govt.. policy because Bozo is frightened of them, but I’d be banned if I wrote them.

One thing I know for sure though is that torrid are by instinct libertarians and this will not go on for a moment longer than it has to (which renders Beanniecats theories complete nonsense, btw).

This was the analogy Prof Van Tam came up with last week WRT easing lockdown restrictions-

"It's like being on a hill in a car, it's a very steep hill, your foot on the foot brake and your hand on the handbrake," he explained.

"Until you know the handbrake is biting" you don't "whip" your foot off.

"Vaccines are the handbrake and restrictions are the footbrake.

"I don't want to take my foot off the footbrake until I know the handbrake is holding."

Email this evening from Matt, extending advised shielding from end date Feb 21 to 31 St March, even if both vaccines have been administered.
So not sure what this road plan will contain.

dingit

“ And if the vaccines don't stop transmission ....”

Stronger and stronger data that they do, That’s been know for a while now.

I think the announcement will be the plan to open up, but will be based on thresholds, or levels that we need to reach for various types of unlocking. It's not going to be a definitive set of dates. That's just totally unfeasible.

Everyone is fed up. I'm fed up, I've worked from home, since March, and our kids have been homeschooled to a greater or lesser degree. Not seen my parents other than in the garden when permitted, since March, as all are CEV. My Dad has now been diagnosed with incurable cancer. It's shit.

However, I have limited patience for those people seemingly doing whatever they like. I get people are struggling and want, or need to see people, I do. Because I want l it too. But don't absolutely take the piss and see multiple different groups all the time. I'm sorry, but that's not fair, and it's undermining the effort everyone else is making.

Lots of my close friends work in the NHS snd are totally bloody exhausted. Even if you hate the government (I am absolutely not a fan) think about the front line staff who've faced this head on for the last year.

@Sparklingbrook

This was the analogy Prof Van Tam came up with last week WRT easing lockdown restrictions-

"It's like being on a hill in a car, it's a very steep hill, your foot on the foot brake and your hand on the handbrake," he explained.

"Until you know the handbrake is biting" you don't "whip" your foot off.

"Vaccines are the handbrake and restrictions are the footbrake.

"I don't want to take my foot off the footbrake until I know the handbrake is holding."

And in the meantime businesses fold, jobs are lost, education and kids futures lost, mental health nosedive, our rights and freedoms lost

What are you saying? That even once 90% are vaccinated we still have to keep restrictions because if we don't the virus will become immune to the vaccines? We don't worry about that with the flu vaccine, we just produce a new vaccine each year. We don't tell everyone they can't see their loved ones or go to the theatre or send their children to school

This is what the government are preparing us for though- very long term social distancing. Schools will hopefully stay open and people will be able to see family eventually- but interventions like 1.5/2 meter distancing/masks/rule of 6/WFH will all be staying well into next year.

I'm so fearful that this local dictate has made so many dc extra miserable.

No one in England put a limit on miles.. Someone said they couldn't take their dc to the coast a 2 mile drive away as THEY didn't feel it was local...

@Sparklingbrook

This was the analogy Prof Van Tam came up with last week WRT easing lockdown restrictions-

"It's like being on a hill in a car, it's a very steep hill, your foot on the foot brake and your hand on the handbrake," he explained.

"Until you know the handbrake is biting" you don't "whip" your foot off.

"Vaccines are the handbrake and restrictions are the footbrake.

"I don't want to take my foot off the footbrake until I know the handbrake is holding."

God love him. He speaks "ordinary person" doesn't he?

@DenisetheMenace

I know you’re right about moving too quickly. I understand that completely...I’ve advocated for it myself.

But I’m also feeling really resentful, because I feel that we could have done things differently between September and December and avoided this.

If we’d decided on a long-term reduced capacity for everywhere and mask wearing, we’d have avoided this in-out lockdown business.
Schools should have gone onto rotas. Everywhere else had to limit numbers. Instead we rushed and look where we are...and the biggest piss off, we’re probably about to do it again.

If there is no phased return to school...if the flood gates are opened on March 8th, they can fuck off with the restrictions and I’m going to do what I damn well please as far as I can.

sittingpondering

@DenisetheMenace it sounds very hard for you too so I apologise for being snippy, I’m just finding it all too hard right now. I hope with a break from the home schooling over half term I can gather some strength for the next few weeks and keep on but I’m very low. The thought of two more months of no school is too much for me.“

Good God no need to apologise. I’m not sure I could do what you’re doing.
That’s the worst thing about this whole sorry situation, pretty much everyone is under the most enormous strain.
I just feel that for the sake of another few weeks, we can all be in a much better place, permanently.

DBML

“But I’m also feeling really resentful, because I feel that we could have done things differently between September and December and avoided this. “

Damned right we could have.

@SpringisSpinning

I'm so fearful that this local dictate has made so many dc extra miserable.

No one in England put a limit on miles.. Someone said they couldn't take their dc to the coast a 2 mile drive away as THEY didn't feel it was local...

I’m in Wales. In my city, we’ve got police road stops set up so you can tell them where you’re going. If they feel it’s non essential, you get a fine.

I’m out for a drive officer; not getting out of the car; just want to see if we can spot deer in the woods.
Nope...that’s non essential, have a fine, you’re 10 miles from home.

@TheCrowening

I’m a children’s social worker (so tier 2) and I’m having my first vaccine next week. I don’t understand why teachers aren’t similarly prioritised.

I don't understand why lots of other services who work with children are getting vaccinated but we are not. Not that I resent anyone getting them just wondering why we aren't included.

And if the vaccines don't stop transmission what is the point in waiting for everyone to be vaccinated apart from to make sure Boris' mates pockets are fully lined?

To be fair vaccines are the one thing that hasnt been outsourced, and it's the only thing that's going well...

About 50 countries have covid deaths at zero or in the single figures most weeks.

The U.K. had 3536 last week.

About 100 countries have less than 10 deaths per million most weeks.

The U.K. had almost 53 last week.

@DBML

And in the meantime businesses fold, jobs are lost, education and kids futures lost, mental health nosedive, our rights and freedoms lost

I assume by his analogy it would mean if he did whip his foot off the footbrake things would be even worse and for even longer?

Not sure. I'm just posting what he said when he tried to explain.

@ilikegrapes21

What are you saying? That even once 90% are vaccinated we still have to keep restrictions because if we don't the virus will become immune to the vaccines? We don't worry about that with the flu vaccine, we just produce a new vaccine each year. We don't tell everyone they can't see their loved ones or go to the theatre or send their children to school

This is what the government are preparing us for though- very long term social distancing. Schools will hopefully stay open and people will be able to see family eventually- but interventions like 1.5/2 meter distancing/masks/rule of 6/WFH will all be staying well into next year.

No justification for this at all There will be riots soon

Was anyone expecting to be told anything more than schools going back?? Naive in the extreme.

@PrincessNutNuts

About 50 countries have covid deaths at zero or in the single figures most weeks.

The U.K. had 3536 last week.

About 100 countries have less than 10 deaths per million most weeks.

The U.K. had almost 53 last week.

@DBML

Many of those are tiny little islands or hardly inhabited: The Caymans Fiji Greenland

You can’t really compare them to the densely populated UK.

With any virus there will always be mutations that lead to different variants, vaccines will change and adapt to this over time. It will be another virus that we have to learn to live with, like the flu, it’s virtually impossible to eradicate completely.

@B33Fr33

Why would schools go back? Students didn't go back until September last year, nothing is any different yet. The vaccine is only for the elderly and those who work with them.

@SpringisSpinning

I'm so fearful that this local dictate has made so many dc extra miserable.

No one in England put a limit on miles.. Someone said they couldn't take their dc to the coast a 2 mile drive away as THEY didn't feel it was local...

I thought they had said stay local? I wouldn't call travelling 2 miles an issue, but what is local ?

At the moment I'd be happy with the outdoor rule of 6. Anything else is a bonus. My older dc can go out and see a friend for a run, a walk or a bike ride. My youngest age 6 can't do any of that as obviously he's too young to go out alone yet if I meet up with another Mum and their 6yo for a walk or bike ride I would be breaking rules and could be fined, yet if my ds was a couple of years younger this would be OK . Children need interaction outside the immediate family home, it doesn't necessarily need to be at school. Im pretty sure most people want dc back in school for the social and emotional benefits than educational benefits.