All restrictions to be gone by May?

[LemonSherbetFancies]

Anyone else see this?
I would be really pleased if this happened and we could return to normal life.

We have become very insulated from death in the west but the reality is we don't have a right to life. Or a guarantee of a long life. We may have to learn to accept that.

I thought the right to life was part of the UN universal declaration of human rights?

It doesn’t mean for ever, obviously.

@LemonSherbetFancies

Can't believe some of you think we will only be back to normal this time next year. I am of the belief that by summer, everything will be back to normal. No social distancing, no masks etc. The only thing that they will be careful about is crowds so no gigs or festivals until next year. With that said, these vaccination passports could ease that issue.

I’m sorry to say this but your belief is very naive OP. We will be back in lockdown around 2/3 months after they lift this one. The transmissibility of the new variants mean our numbers will go back up much quicker than they did after last years first lockdown.

People are going to be very disappointed once they realise this.

Not before Dishie Rishie has launched his "New variant Eat out"

"Fill yer plate to help the virus mutate."

@Thewiseoneincognito

Numbers yes, but what about hospitalisations?

The transmissibility of the new variants mean our numbers will go back up much quicker than they did after last years first lockdown.

It’s not cases that are key it’s hospitalisation. What will it be after groups 1 to 9 are vaccinated?

[quote SeldomFollowedIt]@Thewiseoneincognito

Numbers yes, but what about hospitalisations?[/quote]
We’ll find out just how effective the vaccines really are I suppose. Factor in the complacency that will set it because people think there’s herd immunity already and start forgetting some of the basics such as no hugging, shaking hands etc. Only time will tell.

The answer is nobody really knows at this stage how v1.0 of the vaccines will hold up / reduce disease severity of new evolving variants, But we are approaching rapidly the event horizon of no more total lockdowns and as Rishie says we are going to have to live with the virus and re-open our economy and rely on medical advances to take up the slack.

It's not naive. I think things are going to move a lot faster in the right direction then we realise. The vaccination programme is doing better than expected and it will only help to move things in the right direction.

WRT weather-by my memory the sun came out on for first day of lockdown and remained out for most of it!
Who knows what the situation will be by may.

Ok well I think the efficacy will be good enough to allow a near normal life to resume. Yes we will have to wait and see but looks promising so far.

@Thewiseoneincognito

I think we might have some restrictions but why do you think we will need another lockdown when 90%+ if people who get seriously ill/are hospitalised with covid will be vaccinated?

[quote Watchitgrow]@Thewiseoneincognito

I think we might have some restrictions but why do you think we will need another lockdown when 90%+ if people who get seriously ill/are hospitalised with covid will be vaccinated?[/quote]
The new variants. I have a hunch they think at least one evades the vaccines but they’re going to see how it plays out if a dangerous one becomes a dominant strain. The only way to know this for sure is by trial and error, by studying the data from a lifting of restrictions. The cynic in me thinks this is a phase of trials to try to get a grip of this, particularly as there are several formulations of vaccine in circulation. Let’s not be planning street parties just yet.

Purely speculative of course, so let’s see.

@Sparklingbrook

I am more than happy to keep social distancing forever Covid or not. It has been sooo nice to not have to do hand shaking for 12 months, or have strangers wanting to hug me.

It's great that you no longer have to worry about complete strangers walking up to you on the street desperate for a hug, but social distancing means hospitality, entertainment, the arts, leisure, transport etc cannot function at a profit. Maybe you don't care provided you can dodge hugs from strangers, but that will mean the loss of millions of jobs and bilions of £ in tax revenue.

@IcedPurple, as I said upthread I have parents in their 80s that I've not hugged for a year and a baby nephew I have seen 3 times since he was born early 2020.

Just because I quite like not being hugged by strangers or shaking hands doesn't mean I don't care about things on your list why would it?

[quote Sparklingbrook]@IcedPurple, as I said upthread I have parents in their 80s that I've not hugged for a year and a baby nephew I have seen 3 times since he was born early 2020.

Just because I quite like not being hugged by strangers or shaking hands doesn't mean I don't care about things on your list why would it? [/quote]
Well, you said:

"I am more than happy to keep social distancing forever Covid or not."

So my point is that social distancing doesn't only mean that you get to avoid all those strangers desperate to hug you. It means unemployment for millions. If you are "more than happy to keep social distancing forever Covid or not" that obviously means you also accept the dire effects it would have on industries which employ millions and contribute billions to the tax coffers which help pay for essential services.

@IcedPurple I think what @Sparklingbrook means by social distancing is more respect of individuals personal space, rather than all the legal requirements involved in distancing in workplaces etc. people conflate both, I don't think you need to be quite so vicious towards someone who means personal space rather than every single distancing regulation.

Yes @IcedPurple 'I' as in me-personally. I would be very happy not having to shake hands or be hugged by strangers forever regardless of what restrictions were in place or not.

If everyone else goes back to doing it I won't be singlehandedly responsible for the demise of the hospitality industry from then on!

[quote Hollyhead]**@IcedPurple* I think what @Sparklingbrook* means by social distancing is more respect of individuals personal space, rather than all the legal requirements involved in distancing in workplaces etc. people conflate both, I don't think you need to be quite so vicious towards someone who means personal space rather than every single distancing regulation.[/quote]
Thank you @Hollyhead that's exactly what I meant and I don't know why I'm being singled out and got at TBH!

[quote Hollyhead]**@IcedPurple* I think what @Sparklingbrook* means by social distancing is more respect of individuals personal space, rather than all the legal requirements involved in distancing in workplaces etc. people conflate both, I don't think you need to be quite so vicious towards someone who means personal space rather than every single distancing regulation.[/quote]
I'm not being 'vicious'. The term 'social distancing' has a very clear meaning in this context, and it means many industries cannot function.

If you're desperate to avoid hand shaking and being hugged by 'strangers', there's nothing stopping you so doing. You don't need govt regulations to be imposed on everyone else to do that.

I don’t think I’m a doom-monger because I would love to see all restrictions lifted by May but I don’t think it’s possible. I would happily be proven wrong. I do think we will see much fewer restrictions but I don’t expect events like concerts to be back for a while. :( I hope indoor mixing is allowed soon and we need to open restaurants and non essential retail for the sake of the economy. I am cautiously optimistic for things to look better in April/May.

If you're desperate to avoid hand shaking and being hugged by 'strangers', there's nothing stopping you so doing. You don't need govt regulations to be imposed on everyone else to do that.

Exactly! So even when restrictions are lifted I (as in me-just me) would love to continue giving it a swerve but I don't know how successful I will be.

May seems close, but then the vaccine speed has surprised me by not being fucked up and better than I hoped by a long way! So while not everyone will have been vaccinated by then, most over 50s and all the vulnerable who are able to have the jab will have been offered, most will have had the 2nd. Some cant, some won't - hopefully the vaccines combined with the immunity given from those whove recovered will mean there will be very few cases by May, and those cases are less likely to be amongst those most vulnerable.

Fingers crossed, may looks like a lot will have been lifted. May half term is the end of May/start of June. That looks like a holiday when I might be able to do something interesting with the kids, question is what companies will have survived this...

@PracticingPerson

These demands are being made by the less scientific wing of the Tories, so don't hold your breath.

It'd be a pretty stupid move. We've surely got to make this the last bloody lockdown? Don't fuck it up at the last hurdle.

^ this

@LemonSherbetFancies

It's not naive. I think things are going to move a lot faster in the right direction then we realise. The vaccination programme is doing better than expected and it will only help to move things in the right direction.

Do you have any scientific back up for this though?

We all want a happy ending, and hope is important, but I'm not sure why they should move faster in the right direction than the scientists, who understand what they are talking about, think.

I think June or July is probably more realistic.