In reality WHEN will everyone be fully vaccinated?

[FeckenLD3]

Just did some rudimentary maths.

51 million to be vaccinated

431,000 on average vaccinated a day.

So for both doses 102m /431k = 236 days. Call it 8 months?

So end of August call it mid September (for two weeks after vaccination to be as vaccinated as you're ever going to be) for the last folks to be done.

And that's IF the roll out continues at this pace.

Sigh.

One aspect I'm pondering: If travelling abroad is contingent in proving vaccination status, there's going to be a lot of disgruntled youngsters, isn't there?

Never. Not everyone will be vaccinated.

covidvax.live/

Doesn't matter
Goal posts will be moved and restrictions wont be lifted guarantee it

Yes, I guess my title belies what I'm really pondering 😬

At this rate, the United Kingdom could have 70% of people vaccinated (2 doses) in 188 days (or by Aug 19, 2021).

I reckon if they make travelling contingent on 2 vaccines then I can see the private industry stepping in. They’ll want a bite of the cherry and there will be plenty out there willing to pay...

The wild card that will 'move goal posts' isn't something under any human control

It's whether a new variant emerges (either here, or we import it from somewhere else) which escapes the current vaccines completely, and an entirely new jab is needed.

This will of course be far quicker than the time needed to create the first ever vaccines, and the testing regime (if they use the flu jab model) requires less time.

And I note they are already talking about making a new variant booster and it being ready in time to give the most vulnerable (top 4 priorities?) that jab in the autumn

@bumbleymummy

Never. Not everyone will be vaccinated.

Well it didn't take the doom merchants ling to find this did it

Ok so, younger, healthier people will be faster to vaccinate since they will be more mobile, make use of technology etc.

Plans are being made to vaccinate whole work places which will speed people up.

More vaccines are expected in the Spring and once there are enough to go round then the private industries will get involved which will speed things up.

So we're doing a fab job now and that will improve even more over time. We have every reason to be positive about the vaccine roll out.

Everyone won’t be, I won’t be having it

@AlecTrevelyan006

At this rate, the United Kingdom could have 70% of people vaccinated (2 doses) in 188 days (or by Aug 19, 2021).

If vaccine supply ramps up it will be quicker.

There are vaccine centres in London who don't have enough people to jab due to supply issues.

I reckon they will stop after the top 9 groups. But eventually it will be available to those not in the top 9 groups but they will have to pay.

Disclaimer - this I'd just my opinion. It's a hunch.

They're now talking about vaccine immunity lasting about 6 months, so those vaccinated in December/January will need boosters by the summer...

The largest daily number of jabs to date was over 600,000, so there are staff and sites available to do at least that. The constraint on vaccination rate is the supply of vaccines. That is expected to improve shortly.

Pfizer have temporarily reduced supply because they are doing work on one of their factories to increase production. Once that’s sorted, they will be able to supply more. Then there should be some Moderna coming in April, and if Jansen and Novavax are approved, that’s even more doses.

So I’m hopeful it could be sooner, OP. Plus bear in mind some people can’t have it for medical reasons, and sadly some people will refuse for a range of non-medical reasons.

That said, if quarantine on return is still required even if you’re vaccinated, you can probably forget about mass-market foreign holidays. Few people will want (or be able to afford) to follow their week in the sun with two weeks in an airport hotel.

I think your calculation for everyone to have been offered a vaccine may be broadly accurate, OP.

Am I missing something or is this actually incredibly speedy? Your post actually made me feel hopeful even if you are sighing...:)

@Shelovesamystery your hunch runs contradictory to repeated statement by the Government that they intend to offer the jab to ALL adults. This might be a silly question, but - do you think they are lying?

Why would they change policy on this? They seem pretty desperate to encourage high uptake of the vaccine, because they know that’s the only way we are going to be able to get the economy going again. I honestly can’t see any reason why they would withhold it from anyone willing to have it.

@BlackInk who is talking about vaccine immunity lasting six months? Are you sure you didn’t see “at least six months”? Because that would make sense if it was a report done six months after the first trial jabs were given - they can’t claim longer than the amount of time elapsed.

But it also doesn’t mean it will suddenly wear off at six months and one day. If there is waning, it will be gradual. And the trials started last June, so there will be plenty of warning from the trial participants if immunity does start to wane.

However, since we are probably going to need top ups from time to time as new variants arise, that will probably take care of any waning of immunity from the original course.

@PuzzledObserver It's not meant to be doom-mongery at all. :) I don't think we are aiming to vaccinate everyone nor do we need to. I think we're making great progress in vaccinating the more vulnerable groups and that should be enough to ease the pressure on the NHS and enable us to relax restrictions. People in the less vulnerable categories can then decide themselves whether they want the vaccine or not. I think it will become an annual thing like the flu vaccine. It will be offered to the more vulnerable groups and others may choose to have it privately if they feel at risk.

Once they have done groups 1-9 the immediate healthcare emergency is over. Of course there are risks from variants and some otherwise healthy people will still get ill but that shouldn't shut the country down.

So, except for the borders, which might be tricky for a while, things should be more or less normal from May....I hope.

I think if we manage to have most people jabbed by Autumn then we will have achieved something amazing tbh. We are working our way through a pandemic and doing something never done before.

Thanks for the replies they're interesting.

I'm also wondering about some of the vaccination hubs being repurposed back to their original purposeas restrictions are slowly lifted, if that makes sense? That's going to slow the speed down?

@PuzzledObserver no I don't think that they are lying, just that their strategy might change. Its not like they haven't U-turned or changed strategy before.

I think it's possible because of a) new varients and b) because covid is significantly more likely to be mild for those not in the top 9 groups. If they find that they will have to tweak the vaccine sooner rather than later then it may seem pointless to vaccinate those who are at very low risk from covid. So may simply change the plan and prioritise tweaking the vaccine and vaccinating the top 9 groups again. If there are new varients which the vaccine won't work on then it doesn't make all that much sense to vaccinate everyone. They would be spending the whole year trying to vaccinate the whole population, year in year out.

Like I said it's just a hunch. I wouldn't be surprised if they do end up offering the vaccine to all adults. I personally don't mind either way.

They are not talking about immunity last 6 months, this is utter BS.

For one, they cannot possibly know as no-ones had the vaccine for a year yet! It’ll take a good while longer to ascertain immunity lasting levels!

At least 6 months is a term used as that’s all the data they’ve got to go on so far!

Honestly, people’s interpretation of the news is astonishing 🤯

Honestly, people’s interpretation of the news is astonishing
It does my head in when people state a feeling or opinion as a fact.

They also need to look at how to access the vaccines too.

Not everyone is registered with an NHS gp.
Some people (including me and my children) have always used private services.

A way of booking with your nhs number would be good.

@bumbleymummy I didn’t mention doom mongering, but OK.

The stated objective is to vaccinate all adults. Of course not everyone will have it, we know this, but that doesn’t change the objective.

You’re right that we don’t need to vaccinate everybody. We need to vaccinate enough people that herd effects come into play - the challenge is that we don’t know for certain at what level that will happen with Covid. It’s also not fixed - now that we have more transmissible variants at large, we will need to vaccinate a higher percentage to maintain herd immunity.

You say that less vulnerable categories can decide for themselves whether to have it. Actually, everyone can decide whether to have it - no compulsory vaccinations in the UK.

The argument for less vulnerable groups to have it is two-fold: 1) although their risk of severe disease/death is very low, it is not zero. There are plenty of healthy people in their 30’s, 40’s, 50’s, who have been really unpleasantly ill with it. 2) the more Covid is able to circulate in the unvaccinated population, the more mutations there will be which could give rise to variants with unwelcome characteristics.

So 1) is a personal protection issue, 2) is a public health issue.