In reality WHEN will everyone be fully vaccinated?

[FeckenLD3]

Just did some rudimentary maths.

51 million to be vaccinated

431,000 on average vaccinated a day.

So for both doses 102m /431k = 236 days. Call it 8 months?

So end of August call it mid September (for two weeks after vaccination to be as vaccinated as you're ever going to be) for the last folks to be done.

And that's IF the roll out continues at this pace.

Sigh.

One aspect I'm pondering: If travelling abroad is contingent in proving vaccination status, there's going to be a lot of disgruntled youngsters, isn't there?

Sorry @PuzzledObserver it was @ChristmasinJune that said it :)

We need to vaccinate enough people that herd effects come into play

There have been several studies showing that herd immunity won’t actually be possible even with a high vaccine uptake due to mutations, vaccine effectiveness etc. I think we just need to focus on protecting vulnerable individuals and reducing hospitalisations and the burden on the NHS. A decent proportion of the population also have natural immunity now which will help reduce spread too.

Yes, I know we don’t have compulsory vaccination in the U.K. of course everyone should be able to choose, I just meant that the vaccine will be available to the less vulnerable groups once the vulnerable have been vaccinated.

We don't need everyone to be vaccinated in order for life to open up. We need all those in the 9 categories to be so.

That assumes no vaccine resistant variant. Which will be terrible if it happens but you can hardly say it's "moving the goalposts" as if it's what the government wants.

Why on Earth would the government want to do something so unpopular.

@Bumpsadaisie

We don't need everyone to be vaccinated in order for life to open up. We need all those in the 9 categories to be so.

That assumes no vaccine resistant variant. Which will be terrible if it happens but you can hardly say it's "moving the goalposts" as if it's what the government wants.

Why on Earth would the government want to do something so unpopular.

In fact not all of those in the nine categories need to be vaccinated. Just enough of them so that the numbers getting seriously ill with covid are manageable.

It has never been the goal to stop people getting covid.

@Bumpsadaisie actually the top 4 groups account for nearly 90% of the deaths and are the most likely to end up in hospital. They were originally planning to open up after those groups had been vaccinated.

I worry about how they are going to keep giving everyone boosters? They can't just keep doing this & nothing else for the next few years. Remember it will slow down a bit in a few weeks when people start getting their 2nd vaccination

[quote bumbleymummy]@Bumpsadaisie actually the top 4 groups account for nearly 90% of the deaths and are the most likely to end up in hospital. They were originally planning to open up after those groups had been vaccinated.[/quote]
Hmm. Just I hear that everyone in icu at present is in their 50s and 60s.

Only anecdotal of course but from four different doctor friends in different Trusts.

In England my guess is mid to late summer.

In Scotland feck knows.

Hmm. Just I hear that everyone in icu at present is in their 50s and 60s.

Sadly there is a reason for that. When hospitals are overwhelmed elderly people are mostly get sent straight to pallIative care. They don't get sent to ICU.

@pinkhappy

Hmm. Just I hear that everyone in icu at present is in their 50s and 60s.

Sadly there is a reason for that. When hospitals are overwhelmed elderly people are mostly get sent straight to pallIative care. They don't get sent to ICU.

Yes. Also the very vulnerable. Our relative with downs died aged 46 of covid - she didn't go into icu. Straight to palliative as in her best interest. Thankfully she died with her mother there with her.

@Shelovesamystery

I reckon they will stop after the top 9 groups. But eventually it will be available to those not in the top 9 groups but they will have to pay.

Disclaimer - this I'd just my opinion. It's a hunch.

Although this government is incompetent and negligent, even they won’t make this mistake.

Unless the vast majority of people are vaccinated (and this will need to include at least some children) the virus will rumble on at such high levels that we’ll have too many mutations too quickly, and we won’t be able to produce the tweaked vaccines in time to prevent further waves of infection. The aim is to suppress and stay only one step behind.

Over 70s account for 60% of COVID hospital beds in our local hospitals atm.

Exactly Cookerhood. The maths doesn't work!

If this situation is anything like flu and the vulnerable to indeed need boostering before the Autumn, they'll need to get moving with that long before the rest of the population have even been offered a first vaccination.

Data from Israel show the change in the age of patients admitted to hospital as the older population is vaccinated: mobile.twitter.com/H_Rossman/status/1360259366629367808

@bumbleymummy

There have been several studies showing that herd immunity won’t actually be possible even with a high vaccine uptake due to mutations, vaccine effectiveness etc

I haven’t seen that - can you point me in the right direction, please?

It seems to vary depending on area. I’ve been offered the jab, I’m 46 and no underlying health conditions. I do have very mild asthma but haven’t needed an inhaler in 10 years. I have just queried it with the GP and they’ve done the top 9 groups in our area

I don't know when. But what I do want to know is when is the announcement going to be made re Group 10?

In Surrey we are on Group 7, shortly moving onto Group 8, the over 55's.

This means that the Government NOW needs to specify/give details of their plans for Group 10.

@PuzzledObserver Sorry, I misspoke when I said 'several studies' It was a study I read (preprint, link below) and a couple of articles about it - one was in Nature I think. I'll keep looking for it. Here you go for now -

www.uea.ac.uk/news/-/article/herd-immunity-may-not-be-achievable-even-with-high-vaccine-uptake

The link to the paper itself is at the bottom.

Thanks @bumbleymummy. It’s an interesting read, but appears to ignore the recent study (also a preprint) showing that AZ’s effectiveness against symptomatic infection when used with the 12 week dose interval is better (82%, from memory), AND that is reduces asymptomatic infection by 67%. I’d like to see them re-run their calculations taking that into account.

Anyway - time will tell. Good news that trials of AZ for children will soon be starting.