Vaccines, Vit D and Variants

[LemonSwan]

I am obviously missing something here because I was just comparing Vit D deficiency of COVID patients (over 80% of hospitalisations) with efficacy of vaccines in reducing hospitalisations..

*Its hard to track down the exact figures as they are changing them all the time. But heres what I have:
Pfizer 52% (1st dose) going to 95% (2nd)
Oxford 70% going to 80-90%
Novavax 89% after two.
J&J single shot 66%

Now we have the SA variant which is messing up the efficacy.
Oxford 10%
Novavax 60%
Pfizer - 'Very modest difference' - SA variant not an issue.

If the virus keeps mutating (which it seems hell bent on doing) then would if have been more effective for everyone to just take vit D tablets and why has this not been pushed more by the Gov. Theres tonnes of papers on this and I haven't heard a peep about it from GOV/NHS - to the point where when I bring up taking Vit D I feel like a conspiracy theorist or a pseudoscientist.

It seems such an obvious solution that I am either being mad or have utterly missed the point. Some one please let me know

If the virus keeps mutating (which it seems hell bent on doing) then would if have been more effective for everyone to just take vit D tablets and why has this not been pushed more by the Gov. Theres tonnes of papers on this and I haven't heard a peep about it from GOV/NHS - to the point where when I bring up taking Vit D I feel like a conspiracy theorist or a pseudoscientist. It seems such an obvious solution that I am either being mad or have utterly missed the point. Some one please let me know.

There's now a HUGE amount of evidence that various vaccines are extremely effectively at reducing the incidence of severe illness and even reducing the risk of transmission. Some of this evidence is from randomized controlled trials.

There is some interesting evidence suggesting a possible association between vitamin D levels and vulnerability to COVID.

However, there is no strong evidence from randomized controlled trials showing that taking vitamin D supplements can reduce the incidence of severe illness - i.e. trials where some people are randomized to get vitamin D, others a placebo. So it simply is not the case that there are a "ton of papers" showing that administering vitamin D can reduce the risk of severe illness with COVID.

I'm a big vitamin D fan - take loads of it myself. But there isn't the evidence yet there like there is for vaccines. So vitamin D cannot replace vaccines.

Thanks for sharing all sharing your thoughts. Its great if shielders are being sent Vit D. I am taking that as the NHS does believe theres some merit to it, but then I wonder why the general population haven't been told this with the same vigour as other preventative steps such as wash your hands/ wear a mask etc.

And to clarify no I am not saying we shouldn't have the vaccine. I am just musing about all this because we have those being pleased about first jab immunity of 52/70% and then we have the mutations also messing with the vaccines which may mean its even less effective. I am saying we have had something here all along thats 80% correlated with hospitalisations and why has this not being talked about more. Either while we were waiting for the vaccines, or as a belt and braces now we have the vaccines and mutations are occurring.

I think what I am missing is 'absorption issue with obese and elderly people' mentioned by pp. Perhaps that is why it is not spoken about, or because people will confuse the message and think if you take Vit D then you dont need to wash your hands/ wear masks/ get a vaccine.

I am saying we have had something here all along thats 80% correlated with hospitalisations and why has this not being talked about more

The problem is there is currently no good evidence that taking vitamin D supplements reduced the risk of hospitalisation. I wish there was - but there just isn't.

As is often said - correlation does not equal causation.

It may be that having higher levels of body fat lowers vitamin D levels an increases vulnerability to COVID through a different mechanisms. Taking vitamin D supplements would not correct this.

The problem is that exercise, diet, age, socialisation, mental health, disability, exposure to sunshine and hence nitric oxide production, obesity are all correlated one way or another with vitamin D levels in a massive knotted web. It’s unlikely to do you any harm, which is why the government recommends supplementation, but the evidence that it’s a magic bullet is just not there.

bobbie
I agree there are not randomized blind controlled trials - because we cannot give people a Vit D or sugar pill and then give them COVID. Its unethical.

But there are plenty of retrospective studies where they have analysed outcomes for those on Vit D supplementation vs those without.

@Phyzzz - 1. it has been on the NHS website to take it in winter. Yet many people, myself included, have used factor 30 sunblock for the last 10-20 years. Elderly people and those in care homes tend not to sit out in the sunshine long enough. That's without starting on the BAME community's requirements which aren't addressed at all on the NHS website.

1. They recommend 400iu. It's paltry and they admit it isn't based on any research or science. It's half the dose recommended in the US and Europe and some health experts believe it's a throwback to the amount contained in a spoon of cod liver oil.

If you think 400iu daily is enough to get an adult out of deficiency level I challenge you to try it. Get a blood test on Thriva or similar and take 400iu daily in winter. Get checked 2 weeks later and you'll be nowhere near optimium. It's a pandemic that affects the respiratory system and causes a cytokine storm. It's a pandemic that affected our livelihoods, education, travel and freedom - we don't have time to f**k around with 400iu. I'm not aiming to prevent rickets in a small child FFS.

1. The government didn't send vitamin D to the vulnerable until January 2021. Don't you think that's a tad late for a pandemic that started in the UK in February 2020?
2. They still haven't issued a strong public statement (special thanks goes to Matt Hancock for mixed messages).

The PHE and NHS had 10 years+ to recommend that manufacturers fortify food and drink with vitamin D to push the population out of deficiency. They ignored all calls for that from the research community. There are papers on it. Can you tell I'm angry? 😳

@LemonSwan

bobbie I agree there are not randomized blind controlled trials - because we cannot give people a Vit D or sugar pill and then give them COVID. Its unethical.

But there are plenty of retrospective studies where they have analysed outcomes for those on Vit D supplementation vs those without.

Actually there are not really many studies like that either - most studies have simply looked at the correlation between vitamin D levels in blood and outcomes.

This is not the same at retrospectively looking at history of vitamin D supplementation and outcomes. That's not straightforward because you can't really ask people on a ventilator - or people who sadly didn't make it - what supplements they were taking prior to getting ill.

P.S. I'm not saying don't take it. I repeat - I take loads!!!

To those people saying there isn't the science. It's not toxic. It's cheap. It is known to boost immunity. It's agreed in the medical world that it prevents and lessens the severity of respiratory illness.
It's known that the majority of countries have a population deficient in it (including Brazil which was a surprise to me).
You know what the elderly, BAME and obese have in common? They tend to be vitamin D defii.
Do you know that Somali people in Sweden and Orthodox Jews in London were disproportionately hit by deaths very early in the pandemic? They wear covered clothing.
If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck...
The vaccine is great. Much needed. But let's eradicate the widespread vitamin D deficiency this virus exploited.

Other countries do have fortification and I do not understand why we don't.

It also seems a very low dose recommended by UK government. The consequence of that was my relatives being very concerned that I was recommending them a daily "high dose" vitamin D at 25 microgram/ 1000 IU.

I understand they don't want people taking too much. And I'll be laying off when we get to summer.

@LemonSwan

bobbie I agree there are not randomized blind controlled trials - because we cannot give people a Vit D or sugar pill and then give them COVID. Its unethical.

But there are plenty of retrospective studies where they have analysed outcomes for those on Vit D supplementation vs those without.

Please link to a couple of the studies you mention. Because they would be a game changer, but as per PP, I’m unconvinced they exist.

There are a hundred reasons why someone might have low vitamin D, and many of them are believed to lead to worse Covid outcomes in their own right. Mind you it might be the other way around in some cases - it’s just about possible that the low vitamin D levels in obese people is what’s leading to their worse outcomes.

I also have a vitamin D spray which I push on my whole household daily, so I’m also not against it, I just think the evidence on Covid is not everything that you think it is.

By the way, vitamin D is actually a hormone. It helps boost mood and being low in vitamin can inhibit weightloss because of its connection to insulin resistance.
If you don't take it to prevent severe Covid, take it and give it to your DC in the NHS recommended amounts for good mood and weight regulation.

God only on MN do you get people arguing for the sake of it and trying to out evidence each other.

However, belt and braces - take your vitamin D (we take 100 ug) AND take your vaccine

That's it, in a nutshell, no further debate needed.

letit Johnson got bored with his health kick after about a fortnight didn't he. So much for setting a good example.

Johnson stopped talking about it but he looks less paunchy.

Is the oxford vaccine seriously only 10% effective against the SA variant

Where have you got the 10% Oxford efficacy from?

Now we have the SA variant which is messing up the efficacy.
Oxford 10%
Novavax 60%
Pfizer - 'Very modest difference' - SA variant not an issue.

I know this is about Vitamin D but is there really such a huge gap between AZ and others against the SA variant? Sorry, not had time to read thread yet....

@CrackOpenTheGin

Is the oxford vaccine seriously only 10% effective against the SA variant

It's more complicated than that.

"There is no evidence..." Well there's no evidence that my house can be fully cleaned and sparkling in one day. Want to know why? I've never tried.

Saying "There's no evidence..." isn't the same as "we have ran full clinical trials and the outcome didn't justify these measures".

Also, people who glibly say "correlation doesn't equal causation." What?! Do you have time for full clinical trials for a non-toxic, cheap preventative measure? Actually the UK did have time. Just didn't do it.
Had vitamin D supplements not been invented pre-Covid, you can be SURE that companies would be racing to patent it and fully test it.
Countries would have been backing research and heralding it as a preventative wonder.

Well there going to be people refusing the oxford jab now and holding out for the Pfizer. I know I would.

There's no way to do that. They are keeping what's left of the Pfizer for people which history of severe allergy.

Also imo you're probably better off having the Oxford one now as they have already tweaked it to specically address the SS variant whcih they'll be giving to the people that had the first Oxford jab (only) in October once everyone is done. They will.all be tweaked annually for the dominant variants, like the flu vaccine. Also, I don't think that 10% figure has been in anyway confirmed yet, it was just from a very small scale study in Israel on 31 year olds wasn't it?

SA variant, not SS

The dose sent out is tiny. I've been taking 3000 a day as shielding, and my last bloods showed a level of 9
Now on 20,000

Both my parents died of covid last month. Me and DH spent 8 days at their house firstly sitting with dad while he was dying and then nursing mum.

We tried to wear masks all the time but there were times when we didn't like when she fell out of bed and we rushed to her. We also had to wash and dress her and help her get out of bed to the bathroom so were touching her not wearing gloves.

I have 2 sisters. One sister and her husband spent 1 day at parents' house and the other sister and her husband spent 4 hours there. They wore masks the whole time and one sister and her husband wore gloves.

After mum died we all got tests and me, DH and one sister were negative. The other sister and 2 brother in laws were positive.

We all thought it didn't make sense as me and DH had spent so much time there and were sure we would test positive. The 3 of us who tested negative all take vitamin D and we are wondering if that is why we didn't get it