For people who like 'following the science' - what research shows about the impact of human relationships on health and life expectancy

[TheDailyCarbunkle]

Research with tens of thousands of people showed that it wasn't weight, alcohol consumption or even whether or not you smoked that was the greatest predictor of how long a person lives. In second place in the top ten factors that contribute to health and long life is close relationships, people you can rely on and talk to. In first place as in, the number one predictor of health and survival is the range of both strong and weak connections a person has, ie the extent to which they chat to people day to day - the person in the coffee shop, the cleaner at work, your neighbours. Conversely, not interacting with other people day to day, not having incidental conversations with people, has a massive impact on health. It is the primary factor that makes the difference.

This is an excellent talk about the effect of relationships on health, I'd recommend watching it: www.ted.com/talks/susan_pinker_the_secret_to_living_longer_may_be_your_social_life/transcript?language=en

A quote from the above talk:

if we now spend more time online than on any other activity, including sleeping, we're now up to 11 hours a day, one hour more than last year, by the way, does it make a difference? Why distinguish between interacting in person and interacting via social media? Is it the same thing as being there if you're in contact constantly with your kids through text, for example? Well, the short answer to the question is no, it's not the same thing. Face-to-face contact releases a whole cascade of neurotransmitters, and like a vaccine, they protect you now in the present and well into the future. So simply making eye contact with somebody, shaking hands, giving somebody a high-five is enough to release oxytocin, which increases your level of trust and it lowers your cortisol levels. So it lowers your stress. And dopamine is generated, which gives us a little high and it kills pain. It's like a naturally produced morphine.

I should point out that this talk is from 2017, long before the pandemic.

There's quite a bit of research out there,.but it isn't as freely available as they have made the vaccine data.

If it helps SAGE has included psychologists and behaviourists when discussing the various lockdowns.

@CuriousaboutSamphire

There's quite a bit of research out there,.but it isn't as freely available as they have made the vaccine data.

If it helps SAGE has included psychologists and behaviourists when discussing the various lockdowns.

Yes, to make sure people are terrorised and manipulated enough to stick to lockdown, not to make sure we are ok

Goes without saying, really.

Were social beings and keeping people locked up like this will only have a major impact on a person's health and being.
The vast majority, 95% or more, will be not be killed by Covid but suicide rates, mental health rates are at an all time high, and let's not mention the developmental delays it will have in childre due to lockdowns and lack of social interaction.

No mention of poverty then?

I mean, the GDP of the country you live in seems to have an impact on life expectancy for a start.

Correlation doesn't equal causation... just sayin'

And noble is of course right - poverty is the number one factor. Not whether you have a social life.

Very good point OP!

I am so worried about my DC's development. So, so worried

In fact there are plenty of things that I'm worried about right now, and covid is so far down that list that it may as well not even be on it. But hey, covid is the only thing that matters right

@DuchessofHastings1

Goes without saying, really.

Were social beings and keeping people locked up like this will only have a major impact on a person's health and being.
The vast majority, 95% or more, will be not be killed by Covid but suicide rates, mental health rates are at an all time high, and let's not mention the developmental delays it will have in childre due to lockdowns and lack of social interaction.

Given we're now at 115,000 covid deaths, are you saying that this is only 5% of the total deaths we'll see, so there will be over 2 million deaths by suicide this year? To be clear on actual numbers, the full 2020 numbers aren't out yet, but at the height of the pandemic they were down on 2020 (slightly reflecting delayed inquests, but certainly not a huge expansion). Last year the number was 5,000 odd - which is 5,000 tragedies, but even a doubling in this number would be completely dwarfed by the deaths we would have seen without a lockdown, including younger and healthier people as well as those that you may argue already had a low life expectancy.

I am keen to get kids back to school and go on a.summer holiday, I'm not a lockdown enthusiast. But the death-by-mental-health arguement doesn't hold up at this point. Maybe later, when we have vaccines rolled out and rates are lower.

Red "Yes, to make sure people are terrorised and manipulated enough to stick to lockdown, not to make sure we are ok"

Exactly, I haven't looked at SAGE minutes since autumn but I doubt anything has changed.

Rubicon "But the death-by-mental-health argument doesn't hold up at this point"

Depends how you consider it, certainly the London Ambulance service reported an increase in suicide attempts. I was nearly a statistic too. But apparently the only "sadly dieds" are Covid now.

@OverTheRubicon I didn't imply there would 2 million suicide deaths, what I meant was the impact of lockdowns on peoples mental health and well being will affect a lot more people than actually dying of Covid.
It's hard to say how many of these 115,000 deaths are actually due to Covid when people are dying of other causes yet if they are tested positive, it goes down in the statistics as a Covid death.

Simply, everyone I've spoken to in real life are fed up of the lockdowns and that's putting it lightly. 2 of which I know are now anti depressants.
But yet none of them have died from Covid. The effects of lockdown are affecting the majority at a wider scale than deaths and hospital admissions.

I’m on antidepressants and have been for a large proportion of my life. I don’t need long COVID or the worry of my DH (who’s vulnerable) getting really ill on top of my existing MH issues.

I would like to see some sensible conversations around mental health, especially the impact of lockdown on younger people, and more support for those who need it, but I don’t feel this either/or, COVID v mental health dichotomy is helpful. To some extent I’d even say that my MH issues have helped me develop resilience and a stoical attitude, which has been very helpful throughout the pandemic.

It's hard to say how many of these 115,000 deaths are actually due to Covid when people are dying of other causes yet if they are tested positive, it goes down in the statistics as a Covid death. *

It's not hard to say - where covid has contributed to the death of someone it goes on their death certificate. And the numbers with covid recorded on their death certificate is about 3% higher than the official figure.

I would like to see some sensible conversations around mental health, especially the impact of lockdown on younger people, and more support for those who need it, but I don’t feel this either/or, COVID v mental health dichotomy is helpful.

Well said.

@titchy I think it is hard as you don't know if Covid 'contributed' to a death of say heart attack just because they tested positive for it. They could have more than probable have died of the heart attack anyway.

@TornadoOfSouls

I’m on antidepressants and have been for a large proportion of my life. I don’t need long COVID or the worry of my DH (who’s vulnerable) getting really ill on top of my existing MH issues.

I would like to see some sensible conversations around mental health, especially the impact of lockdown on younger people, and more support for those who need it, but I don’t feel this either/or, COVID v mental health dichotomy is helpful. To some extent I’d even say that my MH issues have helped me develop resilience and a stoical attitude, which has been very helpful throughout the pandemic.

That's good for you but doesn't apply for everyone unfortunately. I know of 2 people who have both recently been to the doctors asking for help with their mental health who have never suffered from it due to lockdowns.

[quote DuchessofHastings1]@OverTheRubicon I didn't imply there would 2 million suicide deaths, what I meant was the impact of lockdowns on peoples mental health and well being will affect a lot more people than actually dying of Covid.
It's hard to say how many of these 115,000 deaths are actually due to Covid when people are dying of other causes yet if they are tested positive, it goes down in the statistics as a Covid death.

Simply, everyone I've spoken to in real life are fed up of the lockdowns and that's putting it lightly. 2 of which I know are now anti depressants.
But yet none of them have died from Covid. The effects of lockdown are affecting the majority at a wider scale than deaths and hospital admissions.[/quote]
Actually you can get a good idea of how many deaths are being caused by covid. Tracking average deaths for each day of the year, and comparing how many deaths are occurring this year, gives an estimate of excess deaths - i.e., the ones that are beyond average and likely covid related, excluding those who would likely have died anyway. That number is already over 100,000
Again, mental health impact is big too, but actual deaths are enormous. If noone you know is affected, that likely speaks to your privilege.
www.google.com/amp/s/amp .ft.com/content/5f7b58fb-97ad-4fef-bbc9-b71d328c6700

www.ft.com/content/5f7b58fb-97ad-4fef-bbc9-b71d328c6700

@OverTheRubicon its estimates and probabilities.
As with any statistics really.

According to ONS, theres been 34,963Deathswith a positive Covid test to 8th November 2020.

28,188 flu & pneumonia averagedeathsper annum over last five years.

34,963Deathswith a positive Covid test to 8th November 2020.

By November 2020...7,000 flu+pneumonia that year. So that's 20,000 thousand flu deaths have miraculously went away. The stats can work either way.
Fundamently when people are dying of other causes and it's been put down as a Covid death and theres no way of knowing if Covid actually contributed to the death or not.

This damm phone.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/adhocs/12267numberofdeathswhereinfluenzaandpneumoniaweretheunderlyingcauseofdeath2015to2019englandandwales

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

So that's 20,000 thousand flu deaths have miraculously went away

Not miraculously? Clearly the measures taken to prevent the spread of covid also prevent the spread of flu so we’d expect flu deaths to drop?

[quote DuchessofHastings1]@titchy I think it is hard as you don't know if Covid 'contributed' to a death of say heart attack just because they tested positive for it. They could have more than probable have died of the heart attack anyway.[/quote]
Yeah am sure you're right. What do the doctors actually know about their patients' causes of death FFS.

Now I was reading the other day about how mental health isn't as badly affected as many people here believe ( in terms of how much of the population suffers worse mental health. )

Sexual assault which is more personal will affect you more than an event like this pandemic which does affect everyone

Scientific study but possibly not the study you want

Having a faith - any faith - is supposed to help longevity too. The suggestion is that the communities and friendships that go alongside religion are positive and that people are more likely to have healthier life styles.

@titchy people have died of heart attacks, just hearts attacks alone before Covid came along.
If someone has a heart attack, and they test positive for Covid (though they might not have even had any symptoms prior death) it goes down as a Covid statistic. Doctors arent carrying out post mortems to see if Covid actually contributed to their death, they get a positive test and it goes down as a Covid death. Comprende?