Restrictions on large gatherings likely to be in place 'for next few years'

[vera99]

Gulp. This is pretty bleak if true.

Experts have warned that restrictions on large gatherings could remain in place for "the next few years" as the world learns to live with the coronavirus.

Tim Spector, a professor of genetic epidemiology at King's College London, told Times Radio that he "can't see us suddenly having another Cheltenham Festival with no regulations again".

"I can't see us having massive weddings with people coming from all over the world, I think for the next few years those days are gone," he added.

Prof Spector also suggested that basic infection control measures - including physical distancing, face masks and handwashing - should remain in place as they "don't cost really anything to do".

"I think we need to get used to that and that will allow us to do the things we really want to do more easily and more readily," he said.

On a more positive note Prof Spector, who created the Zoe Covid Symptom Study, said the infection survey indicates that coronavirus rates are "generally much lower everywhere" in the country, with around one in 170 people infected on average.

He suggested that reinstating the rule of six allowing people to meet outdoors should be "definitely encouraged" around the same time as primary schools begin to return.

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@cabbagepots you sound delightful. Of course people want celebrations in their life.

Is anyone else wondering how the London Underground could ever be made safe if this is true?

Mass outdoor gatherings will be allowed to happen from the early July.

@Wondergirl100

The worst part of what he says is that 'physical distancing doesn't cost anything'

That shows how deluded these people are. They literally see humans as sets of data - physical distancing comes at an enormous cost!

Absolutely. It means no theatre, no music, no opera, no dance. No choral singing. Very much reduced and diminished religious services. Many businesses (restaurants, bars, nightclubs) wouldn’t be viable. Young people just starting work ‘working from home’ in their bedrooms. Student life would be a pale shadow of the real thing. No after school clubs, no school trips. A pretty miserable and utilitarian school day.No travel.

Do people really care so little if we lose all that? Because not only would I rather risk getting Covid than live such a diminished life, I’d rather die.

Maybe people need to think about traipsing half way across the world for a party.

Maybe people are "traipsing around the world" to attend a wedding of a beloved family member, or a funeral.
I "traipsed round the world" every year to see family. My one consolation is that my mother and father are dead already so I only have to miss my nephews and nieces growing up.

Crikey. At present I am wfh and the dc are studying from home when they should be at university. DH is a keyworker so at work. His mother is alone 220 miles away and in our social bubble. I haven't seen my mother since October.

My interpretation of what Tim Spektor is saying is that in 3/4 ×weeks up to six people will again be able to meet outside. I imagine a month after that shops may open followed by hairdressers, etc. Gyms and cinemas a month after that. I can't remember the last time I went to the cinema and it was so full there couldn't have been a seat between everyone. If the races and festivals have to move to fewer numbers for a year or two sobeit but I imagine open air theatre and concerts will go ahead. As will pubs and restaurants but not with people shoulder to shoulder and I avoid those venues anyway.

If we can achieve that by spring/early summer it will be absolutely brilliant and we monitor spread and take a view over winter.

@StealthPolarBear Life is about family and friends but when you are thinking about (hopefully!) spending the rest of your life with a person enough to want to marry them then the commitment to that person is central to the whole thing. In an ideal world we would be able to celebrate that with family and friends but we don't have that ideal world right now (any more?) do we.

18th, 21st birthdays, funerals, graduations etc are all best celebrated/spent with family and friends but they happen regardless.

If I really wanted to marry somebody (which I don't) then I would have the marriage ceremony without the party in the same way that many families have had funerals this year without key people present, have had gained a degree with no graduation ceremony and had milestone birthdays without any family present.

Do we want to just be alive or do we want to live? It feels like a lot of people think they are essentially the same thing.

Hear hear, @StealthPolarBear. I want to live, and I don’t see any point in just ‘being alive’.

The public had a lot of faith in what we were told last year, for example "three weeks to flatten the curve".

During the summer when deaths were as low as two per day on some days many of us would not have believed that cases would rise again.

Eat Out To Share It About now seems utterly ridiculous but most people trusted the Government and why shouldn't we have trusted them?

I think that it would make sense to be more cautious this year and wait until the vaccines have actually made a significant difference to the daily death figures (not zero but far less than 1,000).

I think a lot of travel and gathering restrictions are sadly going to be in force for a good while.

Otherwise there is the risk of just pissing the vaccines up against a wall. South African variant is already a case in point.

Even if restrictions are lifted, a lot of things will suffer. Things like concert and cinema numbers aren’t going to recover overnight, restrictions or no restrictions.

This would be a catastrophe for the entire performing arts industry. Theatres literally cannot afford to open and put on performances if there are too few people in the audience.

[quote secretllama]@cabbagepots you sound delightful. Of course people want celebrations in their life.[/quote]
Of course we do but if we don't have a choice then we don't have a choice do we?

If I were planning a marriage and had a choice of the marriage without a big party or no marriage then I'd have the marriage because that is what it's actually about.

In the past year I would have hoped to be at a family funeral with my relatives but I couldn't have them there. I would have liked my son to have a graduation ceremony but he didn't have one. I would have liked to celebrate his 21st birthday with him but I couldn't. I'd have liked to celebrate my Aunt's 90th birthday with her and my cousin's 70th birthday with her but we couldn't do any of those things. It is how life is now and I've just had to accept it.

At least with a marriage you can have the marriage, there is a choice about it.

So many MNers would be happy to lock themselves away indefinitely,

I don't think I'm happy to lock myself away, but then nor did I think Tim Spector meant social distancing with everyone for ever. Eventually, we'll be able to do more, without the virus being out of control. But that doesn't mean doing everything possible for the sake of it.

I'd be happy to stay 2m back from someone at a cash machine or a supermarket, and sit further away than tables are usually set out in a cafe or restaurant. If someone said I could have my own group of twenty, for example, instead of just my household, I'd be thrilled.

We don't actually need to mix up close and personal with everyone else, even if we'd like to go out and see our families and friends socially.

Prof Spector is an apt name. You'll find him at the nearest feast, but possibly not for another 15 years.

Honestly, OP, I'd recommend staying away from the news. It's working wonders for me (as is avoidance of this particular board but your post came up as a trending topic). I'm also not looking beyond a week at a time as the huge increase in workload this pandemic has created would threaten to overwhelm me. Baby steps. I'm finding this is working. Looking too long down this road isn't helpful IME, and I'm trying not to do it.

If this brings any comfort, Prof. Spector doesn't get to dictate the rules for years in advance about festival organisation. Prof. Spector isn't the party-pooping wedding planners' chief authority. Prof. Spector is not an elected representative who gets to make the law. He can give an opinion and that's all.

Covid 19 is not a highly infectious form of Ebola (God forbid) or a reincarnation of smallpox that is spreading like wildfire. It's a nasty flu - albeit other forms of flu are also dangerous - and there is a vaccine. Because there's now a vaccine there's also a relatively short and simple tweaking process that can respond to mutations: much as a new flu vaccine is brought out each year.

It's pointless speculating as this won't bring about a solution any quicker: it will just make you thoroughly miserable. An end is in sight. I'm clinging to that possibility and tuning out as far as possible the negative vibe merchants and doomsayers.

to all who are struggling.

I work in Horseracing. Many courses are planning on the assumption that crowds of some sort will be allowed from May onwards, though obviously not in the same numbers as pre-pandemic.

However it has to be accepted that without the return of crowds many venues, including racecourses, will go under. Most of them make a large proportion of their income from ticket sales and associated hospitality and the numbers just won’t add up if a venue with capacity for 20,000 people is only allowed a maximum of 5,000 people.

Do we want to just be alive or do we want to live? It feels like a lot of people think they are essentially the same thing.

Absolutely. However I genuinely think the amount of time the majority will put up with this is limited.

Really? I find this quite depressing. Is this his view based on recent events? Or was this published a while ago.

The recent concerts in jersey / or guernsey and Australia? Made me pang for it.

@StealthPolarBear

Do we want to just be alive or do we want to live? It feels like a lot of people think they are essentially the same thing.

I want to live, I want my children to be able to live the life that they lived before and it hurts every day to see my suicidal son but I'm still glad that he is alive, this life is better than the alternative.

I feel sorry for people who are having to decide whether to TTC or not at the moment, it must be a hard decision to make with all this going on

The really large events don’t bother me much, but I’m pining for a crowded restaurant or theatre.

Even an office Christmas party, strange as that seems.

"He says social distancing costs nothing "

That's not how I feel about it right now believe you me!

A wedding is about the exchange of vows, it doesn’t need a big party, it’s just a want.

Are we supposed to spend the next few years only having the things we need and not the things we want, or does that only apply to weddings?

Some people have a weird view about big weddings equalling a couple who don’t really love each other and aren’t bothered about the marriage vows, just want a party.

He says social distancing costs nothing

This is a really fucking stupid thing to say and only people who don’t have a clue about the economics of various sectors would come out with it.

unfortunately we screwed this up badly and we're just going to have to wait to recover. If we don't wait we'll have a fourth wave and another 100, 000 or more will suffocate.

NZ and Australia didn't screw up (although they have lower populations who are more compliant), and thus can do all sorts of things that we can't. But they still can't leave their countries except under very limited circumstances, and same for those coming in. And as proved with the Australian open, travellers bring the virus so you have to have fiercely enforced quarantine and testing.

Sorry.

@CaveMum

I work in Horseracing. Many courses are planning on the assumption that crowds of some sort will be allowed from May onwards, though obviously not in the same numbers as pre-pandemic.

However it has to be accepted that without the return of crowds many venues, including racecourses, will go under. Most of them make a large proportion of their income from ticket sales and associated hospitality and the numbers just won’t add up if a venue with capacity for 20,000 people is only allowed a maximum of 5,000 people.

This would seem a sensible deduction from the info filtering through.

The FA have announced two England friendlies which are expected to have ‘some’ fans in attendance in early June.