Restrictions on large gatherings likely to be in place 'for next few years'

[vera99]

Gulp. This is pretty bleak if true.

Experts have warned that restrictions on large gatherings could remain in place for "the next few years" as the world learns to live with the coronavirus.

Tim Spector, a professor of genetic epidemiology at King's College London, told Times Radio that he "can't see us suddenly having another Cheltenham Festival with no regulations again".

"I can't see us having massive weddings with people coming from all over the world, I think for the next few years those days are gone," he added.

Prof Spector also suggested that basic infection control measures - including physical distancing, face masks and handwashing - should remain in place as they "don't cost really anything to do".

"I think we need to get used to that and that will allow us to do the things we really want to do more easily and more readily," he said.

On a more positive note Prof Spector, who created the Zoe Covid Symptom Study, said the infection survey indicates that coronavirus rates are "generally much lower everywhere" in the country, with around one in 170 people infected on average.

He suggested that reinstating the rule of six allowing people to meet outdoors should be "definitely encouraged" around the same time as primary schools begin to return.

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www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-uk-covid-vaccine-lockdown-end-latest-cases/

Wedding and events are huge industries. So many livelihoods depend on them

"Yes, but people want more from their lives than an endless socially distanced trudge. That’s why humans have gone back to normal after every other pandemic."

If people think that the point of having a life is just not to die they are going to be sorely disappointed at some point.

I'll be so sad if this turns out to be true. We go to a family festival each summer which we all love. It would wipe out the whole festival industry. I've resigned myself to it not happening this summer but I pray by summer 2022 things are different.

I can imagine that international travel may be more constrained for a while longer
Not being able to enter many other countries as a tourist certainly makes international travel difficult for most of us right now.

This has made me feel a bit broken today. We've been waiting since last spring to hold a memorial for my dad - there are many people from all over the country and abroad who want to gather together to remember him with us. We had a funeral of only three people because we were holding out to be able to say goodbye to him properly later in the year, then became resigned to waiting until the following year - but we really, really need to do this to be able to start rebuilding our lives without him. We need to hug our friends.

Gathering in groups and being close to others is a human need for most people; it's infuriating to be told on here that none of that is essential. We are just existing right now and we can't carry on like this indefinitely. And that's not even starting on the economics of endless social distancing.

I genuinely don’t understand how people are so shocked by this. Hope and positivity are so important but planning for the worst while hoping for the best and assuming something in between will happen is just realistic.

A relative hung up on me last week when they said we’d definitely be able to have a party of 50 in September and I said I genuinely hoped so but doubted it.

How emotionally detached do you have to be to suggest that physical distancing "costs nothing"? Unless in purely economic terms, but even then it costs entire industries.

@LawnFever

But they already are having mass gatherings in countries where they’ve got in under control, so once the vaccine is rolled out why wouldn’t that be the same here?

Exactly. Plenty of concerts going on in New Zealand. Two of the things I love to do in life involve large gatherings, which I go to with friends. My life would feel quite empty and depressing if l couldn't do them for years.

Hmmm I’ve also read today “that the Cabinet office is planning lockdown from November 2021 to February 2022.” There isn’t a source listed so take from that what you will.

Also: “ October-April every year from now on will be total lockdown and from April/May-September would be "tiers.”

Although reading the posts here, a lot of people would be happy with lockdown half the year and tiers for the foreseeable.

@DowntonCrabby

I genuinely don’t understand how people are so shocked by this. Hope and positivity are so important but planning for the worst while hoping for the best and assuming something in between will happen is just realistic.

A relative hung up on me last week when they said we’d definitely be able to have a party of 50 in September and I said I genuinely hoped so but doubted it.

September might be up in the air a little, but talking about years, yeah that's shocking. Understand restrictions on international travelling if vaccination rollout is slower in other countries, but I can't see why large domestic events couldn't happen by the end of this year. Vaccine rollout is going amazingly, studies are showing huge effectiveness and we're almost at the point where the most vulnerable are protected. So I don't see why our "return to normal" should be measured in years.

Gathering in groups and being close to others is a human need for most people; it's infuriating to be told on here that none of that is essential. We are just existing right now and we can't carry on like this indefinitely. And that's not even starting on the economics of endless social distancing.

Well said. It is also infuriating when people say it wouldn't bother them or would like it that way. They might be happy living this half life but some of us want our full lives back!
Total ignorant comment about social distancing costing nothing. Costs everything on an emotional and economic level

@DowntonCrabby I think many people (I certainly do) would rather keep the hope and positivity going. Even if it goes to shit again, which indeed it has, at some point normal life will return and probably a lot sooner now due to the vaccines. I'm not going to keep thinking miserable thoughts just so that I'm not disappointed should things get worse again, how ridiculous.

It's really not up to him though is it? Politicians will need to weigh up the impact on the NHS, economic and social costs and make a decision that balances all of that.
He should really have said in his opinion not done this Mumsnet thing of announcing something as an actual fact. I'm only surprised he didn't tack "I'm afraid" or "sorry" on the end of his sentence.

I'm so sorry @Toomanyparsnips about your dad and the fact that you are unable to hold this event to properly say goodbye to him.

I remember in the last ebola outbreak a lot of patronising coverage about people in the affected region still holding funerals and how stupid they were, but I think now we've seen firsthand what it's like having our vital rites of passage taken away from us, more of us understand. Not that I'm suggesting we go ahead with things in the face of the pandemic, just that it causes real pain when you can't say goodbye, see people married, greet new babies in the family and so on.

Well said. It is also infuriating when people say it wouldn't bother them or would like it that way. They might be happy living this half life but some of us want our full lives back!

Would they be also happy living with massively reduced public services?

And/or paying much higher taxes to compensate for all the revenue lost by the many businesses which would have to shut due to social distancing measures which 'cost nothing'?

@MaxNormal

It's really not up to him though is it? Politicians will need to weigh up the impact on the NHS, economic and social costs and make a decision that balances all of that. He should really have said in his opinion not done this Mumsnet thing of announcing something as an actual fact. I'm only surprised he didn't tack "I'm afraid" or "sorry" on the end of his sentence.

Exactly this.

Tim Spector is no doubt a very talented epidemiologist, but like a lot of academics, he probably focuses pnly on his area of specialisation. From an epidemolgical point of view, we'd all be better shut up in our homes indefinitely, but the real world doesn't work that way.

Hmmm I’ve also read today “that the Cabinet office is planning lockdown from November 2021 to February 2022.” There isn’t a source listed so take from that what you will.

Also: “ October-April every year from now on will be total lockdown and from April/May-September would be "tiers.”

If that's true then what exactly is the point of any of it? The vaccines?
The economy will be finished, people's mental health will be finished. That's not a life.

It’s not up to him though is it?

There’s one article quoting someone saying one thing then another saying the opposite.

I’m just reading in the Telegraph how we’ll all be going on holiday abroad from May onwards!

Fuck this, I miss gigs so much, looks like the possibility of the one I should be going to in October happening is very slim then? I hate that I feel my life is on hold, and yet I know people who are carrying on as normal (even though they shouldn't be) and that really grinds my gears.

Tim Spector is no doubt a very talented epidemiologist, but like a lot of academics, he probably focuses pnly on his area of specialisation. From an epidemolgical point of view, we'd all be better shut up in our homes indefinitely, but the real world doesn't work that way.

There was a Guardian article yesterday that estimated that around 100K people in the UK die each year from inactivity. That was pre-covid. I am guessing it will have increased dramatically over the last year.
At some point, even the health benefits and impact on the NHS will stop making sense. Sure we can maintain social distancing long-term and it will keep respiratory illnesses and similar low, but there will very much be all sorts of other health impacts that emerge.
And that's before we've factored in the poverty and financial hit which is always devastating on health outcomes.

Or they could save another 40K lives annually and make us all give up our cars I suppose?

What’s the point of vaccines then? Like literally what’s the point? Here, have 80% protection but sorry, you can’t hug your mum still. Not happening. They can call of Glasto but I will be seeing friends & family this summer & giving my parents and enormous hug once they are double jabbed.

The virus is here to stay. Much like flu, we have to accept a level of mortality and get on with life.

@Donoteatthekittens Boris has already hinted that he’s scrapping the tiers system

I know its not the immediate priority but masks are costing a lot to the environment. There must be millions of them getting binned every single day.

"A wedding is about the exchange of vows, it doesn’t need a big party, it’s just a want. Maybe more focus on the commitment and less on the big day will lead to less couples splitting etc."
When I look back to my wedding I remember being surrounded by friends and family, all there to celebrate with us and wishing us well. That was a big part of the commitment for me.

Another so called expert weighing in with his unwanted opinion. He's not a politician and we refuse to be under any restrictions once everyone's vaccinated, in the UK at least.