Restrictions on large gatherings likely to be in place 'for next few years'

[vera99]

Gulp. This is pretty bleak if true.

Experts have warned that restrictions on large gatherings could remain in place for "the next few years" as the world learns to live with the coronavirus.

Tim Spector, a professor of genetic epidemiology at King's College London, told Times Radio that he "can't see us suddenly having another Cheltenham Festival with no regulations again".

"I can't see us having massive weddings with people coming from all over the world, I think for the next few years those days are gone," he added.

Prof Spector also suggested that basic infection control measures - including physical distancing, face masks and handwashing - should remain in place as they "don't cost really anything to do".

"I think we need to get used to that and that will allow us to do the things we really want to do more easily and more readily," he said.

On a more positive note Prof Spector, who created the Zoe Covid Symptom Study, said the infection survey indicates that coronavirus rates are "generally much lower everywhere" in the country, with around one in 170 people infected on average.

He suggested that reinstating the rule of six allowing people to meet outdoors should be "definitely encouraged" around the same time as primary schools begin to return.

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www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-uk-covid-vaccine-lockdown-end-latest-cases/

"zero covid" will mean completely cutting off from the rest of the globe. For decades."
Think that's a bit dramatic tbh. I'd rather the New Zealand/Australia/Vietnam/Thaland etc version of dystopia than the one we currently have now :-(
Letting it rip on the other hand will cause untold economic damage, deaths and disability. Which does sound dystopian to me.
If we accept that there's no perfect solution, and the choice is between zero covid, long term restrictions or letting it rip, I would choose zero covid any day. I accept we will need to agree to disagree on that though.

@Beaniecats > things will change. Do we have periods in our life when everything is great? Maybe. Do we expect the great times to last forever? No. However bad you feel, things will change - you're not stuck in this thing. If good times can't last forever, bad times certainly can't.

Enough with the doom and gloom predictions. This is just bullshit at this stage. Human beings haven't survived until now as a species (including the bloody plague and many more diseases more deadly than Covid) by hiding behind the sofa. No one is going to follow these rules for years for a virus that has a 90%+ survival rate. Vaccines are supposed to bring back some normality, it that fails then people will just take their chances and stop following the rules.

If all adults are vaccinated by the autumn then what would be the reason to not open up everything? I don't get it. Of course people will still catch it but the vaccine works on preventing serious disease and death so most will just get ill or not even get symptoms. Even if it does kill some people, so do lots of other things that we don't shut up for.

Those who don't want to be vaccinated won't care about the risk and those who can't be vaccinated can choose not to attend.

International travel will have to wait til the world catches up.

@catsarecute

Zero Covid is not an option. The virus is here to stay and we are not in the same position as NZ. We have to learn to live with it.

I find it hard to believe that some people are still peddling this nonsense at this stage.

UK has land border with RoI & RoI uses UK as vital land-bridge.
RoI wants and likes the 4 freedoms of EU.
Heathrow is an important international transfer hub.

Those things are incompatible with any vision of zero covid for all-UK.

USA is not going to pursue a zero covid strategy.

World wants USA money & USA business people. US investors & developers want to see the business models on the ground. Those business people aren't going to put up with 2 week quarantines as price of doing business elsewhere in world. Not long term.

The only way UK (or NZ or Australia) will successfully pursue zero covid long term is to remodel selves after North Korea.

So, what's the point of the vaccination programme, exactly, if we're not getting back to some sort of normal life?

Once the elderly and vulnerable are vaccinated I see no reason as to why society cannot go back to normal.
Yes people will still die from covid, the same way that people die from flu, cold, chest infections etc every day.
We can’t stay in this sort of limbo for ever.

@Polkadotties

Once the elderly and vulnerable are vaccinated I see no reason as to why society cannot go back to normal. Yes people will still die from covid, the same way that people die from flu, cold, chest infections etc every day. We can’t stay in this sort of limbo for ever.

I agree with this. Once my elderly relatives have been vaccinated, I will be visiting them. They can't wait.

@FreakinFrankNFurter

A wedding is about the exchange of vows, it doesn’t need a big party, it’s just a want.

Are we supposed to spend the next few years only having the things we need and not the things we want, or does that only apply to weddings?

Some people have a weird view about big weddings equalling a couple who don’t really love each other and aren’t bothered about the marriage vows, just want a party.

Yes exactly. I had a lovely wedding with all my family and friends 20 years ago. Me and DH are still together and still in a healthy relationship and the best bit is that we have a video and memories to look back on enjoying that day with everyone who came. People do seem to have a strange view that if you want a big wedding then you can't want the marriage. It is possible to want both.

A wedding is about the exchange of vows, it doesn’t need a big party, it’s just a want.

Very few things in life are genuine "needs". Food, water, shelter, warmth, socialisation, sleep... that's about it.

Clothes are just a "want" - why not just wear a hessian sack?
TV is a "want", certainly not something we need or is essential to life.
Furniture is a "want". Easy enough to sit on the ground and sleep on a rug.

"Wants" are important . They make life worth living.

Incidentally one of our actual needs, to socialise as a social animal, has been curtailed.

Has he somehow missed that we’re rolling out the vaccine to the entire adult population? Why would we still need any form of social distancing after that?

@Dongdingdong

Has he somehow missed that we’re rolling out the vaccine to the entire adult population? Why would we still need any form of social distancing after that?

Because the vaccines might not be effective against variants and it will take months to scale up production of new vaccines for booster jabs for the whole world. The next couple of years could be a bit bumpy unless we can massively increase vaccine manufacturer.

Humans are not immortal. We can not eradicate all germs and viruses.
We need continued exposure to viruses to build a healthy immune system. There are going to be a hell of a lot of people out there at the moment with a useless immune system.

I have a theory we're gonna have an awful flu season either 2021/22 or 2022/23, when flu comes roaring back due to all the social distancing being dropped (finally).

@Polkadotties

Humans are not immortal. We can not eradicate all germs and viruses. We need continued exposure to viruses to build a healthy immune system. There are going to be a hell of a lot of people out there at the moment with a useless immune system.

It's pretty obvious that flu is going to be a huge killer next winter. No doubt the NHS will be overwhelmed yet again and we will be locked down yet again to save it due to some double whammy effect of lingering covid cases and the flu.

The corona virus act 2020 expires in March 2022, along with the government's power to impose restrictions. My guess is they'll probably make the most of it til then, because encouragement of mass hypochondria and mass cancellation of events seems to be what's encouraged in the UK now.

It honestly baffles me how keen the government is now to prevent deaths. I had viral pneumonia a few years back and the NHS couldn't have been less interested. Apparently, I looked too healthy to be given antibiotics or even x rayed, until I collapsed.

But now, they're falling over themselves to save over 80s, whom they can't be bothered to give essential cataract operations or orthopaedic surgery to usually, or continue life prolonging cancer treatment. It doesn't actually make any sense, except from the persective that the government obviously sees high covid deaths on an international scale a vote loser. Even though all countries don't measure covid deaths in the same way.

Has he somehow missed that we’re rolling out the vaccine to the entire adult population? Why would we still need any form of social distancing after that?

If you read the article you will see that he he is talking about both long and short term restrictions that will need to remain in place when schools go back. The article doesn't clarify the time scale he is suggesting for different restrictions.

It is reasonable to assume that there will be restrictions on international travel beyond the end of this year because it will take time to vaccinate the entire world. However 'restrictions' may just mean vaccination passports and quarantine.

You also need to remember that he is not in government, and he is only suggesting a possible scenario. He doesn't know what the situation will be in a year's time because he would need a crystal ball.

This is just a newspaper headline designed to generate clicks. If it is really making people think that it isn't worth getting the vaccine (and people aren't just venting), then the Telegraph have been very irresponsible.

But now, they're falling over themselves to save over 80s, whom they can't be bothered to give essential cataract operations or orthopaedic surgery to usually, or continue life prolonging cancer treatment. It doesn't actually make any sense, except from the persective that the government obviously sees high covid deaths on an international scale a vote loser. Even though all countries don't measure covid deaths in the same way.

This is quite simply not true. We're not doing all this to save over 80s, we're doing it to keep middle aged people out of hospital. In the future we may have to do it to stop some new variants in their tracks until the vaccines of the time can catch up.

When enough people are vaccinated that the number of people in hospital with covid is low enough for the NHS to manage easily enough that all the other NHS stuff can go on, then we've a chance of going back to normal, unless we're trying to stop a worse new variant (like one that is more deadly).

Zero covid may be practically too difficult for the UK for the benefit it could bring us right now, but I bloody hope someone in a side room somewhere in the government is working out how we could close the borders competely and still get enough goods moving, should we have to for a short while if a worse variant comes along.

At the moment we're putting all our eggs in one basket that is the virus being mild for most people - mild for enough people, thanks to vaccines, that we can hopefully cope even while we have the current levels of goods and people coming in and out.

If that changes - if we get a variant starting elsewhere with a much higher IFR and limited vaccine help until vaccines are updated - then I'd be hoping that someone somewhere in charge has at least worked out how we might shut our borders temporarily, even if we don't want to do it right now and are hoping never to have to.

All I got to say is this thread gave me some hope.

For every doom mongering & lockdown enthusiastic poster, there have been 10 voices of logic and sense absolutely prevails after all.
I have faith in this world again

Just saying the UAE and India are examples I know that have dropped the vast majority of their restrictions and been having large gatherings with just having covid cases under control. Still cases and deaths daily but their life is back to a huge sense of normal in general.

@Polkadotties

Humans are not immortal. We can not eradicate all germs and viruses. We need continued exposure to viruses to build a healthy immune system. There are going to be a hell of a lot of people out there at the moment with a useless immune system.

Exactly.

Again, the level of total economic ignorance from the people who think this is viable long-term is actually really scary.

Exactly.

I am pissing myself laughing at the idiots on this thread who think businesses can stumble on with hardly any customers because there are Church of English churches hanging on for decades with few parishioners, who cannot see how massively reducing the number of diners or customers is not viable for most businesses....

Have a look at the Super Bowl currently on. Yeh, the stadium isn’t full but it’s still a big event. Mid-Covid. 🤷🏼‍♀️ I don’t see why we can’t do the same once everyone’s had a dose if not two..

It's in Florida which is one of the least strict states in terms of restrictions.