Restrictions on large gatherings likely to be in place 'for next few years'

[vera99]

Gulp. This is pretty bleak if true.

Experts have warned that restrictions on large gatherings could remain in place for "the next few years" as the world learns to live with the coronavirus.

Tim Spector, a professor of genetic epidemiology at King's College London, told Times Radio that he "can't see us suddenly having another Cheltenham Festival with no regulations again".

"I can't see us having massive weddings with people coming from all over the world, I think for the next few years those days are gone," he added.

Prof Spector also suggested that basic infection control measures - including physical distancing, face masks and handwashing - should remain in place as they "don't cost really anything to do".

"I think we need to get used to that and that will allow us to do the things we really want to do more easily and more readily," he said.

On a more positive note Prof Spector, who created the Zoe Covid Symptom Study, said the infection survey indicates that coronavirus rates are "generally much lower everywhere" in the country, with around one in 170 people infected on average.

He suggested that reinstating the rule of six allowing people to meet outdoors should be "definitely encouraged" around the same time as primary schools begin to return.

Follow the latest updates below.

www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-uk-covid-vaccine-lockdown-end-latest-cases/

@Fridget

I think those saying that social distancing can go on for years need to be frank about what this means for the livelihoods of millions of people, rather than pretend that they 'can just adapt'. They can't

I could not agree more. If you make a judgment call that you’re willing to plunge hundreds of thousands into poverty because it will save lives then that’s fair enough, but own it and don’t try to wriggle out of it by saying they can adapt or weren’t viable anyway.

Yes, all this talk about minimum wage waiters stopping drunk wedding guests getting within 2 metres of one another, or restauarnts upping sticks overnight and moving into empty shops so they can space tables out ignores the fact that social distancing simply means that very many businesses will not survive. If these posters feel this is worth it, that's their judgement to make (even if I disagree) but they need to be frank about what this will mean for the livelihoods of millions of people, and how they propose to compensate them.

Weddings and the like will go ahead in the way they did before. Everyone, or enough people will be vaccinated and those who need to will have annual boosters.

@Kazzyhoward

When have as many industries as I mentioned above simultaneously collapsed, almost overnight?

Things changed pretty rapidly and fundamentally during WW2.

Could you name all the industries which collapsed overnight? And not due to lack of demand, but due to regulations?

Sure, industries come and go. Travel agencies barely exist now due to Booking.com and the like. High street butchers fell victim to supermarkets. And so on. Though I should say that these developments took place over years, even decades. But what you seem to want - or at least consider acceptable - is that hospitality, tourism, the arts, leisure, entertainment and so on, go out of business, with the loss of millions of jobs, because of indefinite Covid restrictions. That's an intervention by government. It's not a 'natural' feature of declining demand or changes in customer requirements. It's a bit obtuse to pretend it's the same thing.

[quote MaxNormal]@Kazzyhoward there have been some highly profitable sectors affected by lockdown, I see no reason why they can't continue to do so in the near future. I dont understand why you are so keen to see restrictions extended indefinitely.[/quote]
I'm not "keen", I'm realistic. I don't want to see severe restrictions forever, I want to see reasonable restrictions to balance the risk of letting covid get out of control again whilst at the same time, trying to keep the economy functioning. It's a balancing act. Throwing caution to the wind and letting everything open too soon (again) is counter-productive if it leads to another crippling lockdown. Another lockdown will cause far more bankruptcies/redundancies than coming out of this one slowly and cautiously.

Just look at last Summer. Rishi's "stupid eat out to spread covid" scheme which contributed to the rise in infections. I'm sure the pubs/restaurants would have preferred not to have done that, and to have had social distancing in force, if they'd have been able to stay open for the subsequent months, rather than end up being forced to close again due to the second peak. Rishi's EOTHO could well have led to the closure of some pubs/restaurants rather than saving them.

I'm as keen as everyone else to get out of covid and get back to normal, I don't want severe restrictions forever. But, I do genuinely believe that "some" restrictions will need to stay for the longer term, and many may even become the new "normal" and have little detrimental effect (or far less detrimental that prolonging more severe restrictions and more lockdowns etc).

@Lipsalot

"I'm not saying we should do nothing and let it rip - I'm saying past a certain point it's just nonsensical and unhealthy to shut things down. *"
*
The debate however will be over when that "certain point " is reached. For one person's acceptable level of deaths is another persons unacceptable death toll. This debate will also divide between those of a younger age / low risk and those who are older or have underlying health conditions.

It's not going to be a pretty debate that's for sure.

It's too depressing to think about. We need to go for zero covid.

We had nearly achieved it last summer - if we can get it to those levels again so that test and trace can deal with it properly, and put in place proper financial support so that people can afford to isolate if they need to we could do it - we could be living like Australia/New Zealand/Taiwan/Vietnam etc are now.

It would mean border closures though so no foreign travel for the forseeable, unfortunately, but that's a swap I would be more than willing to make.

For anyone interested, follow independent SAGE and read this article which sets out a plan tribunemag.co.uk/2021/01/the-vaccine-is-not-enough-we-need-a-zero-covid-strategy?fbclid=IwAR2e6EWYC6KolzhJu5qzh-ceaLGnyA1OgpmX7pQ-C6SLb4zG4GYqrbpzqrA

For those who would support this, sign this petition petition.parliament.uk/petitions/571965?fbclid=IwAR3zZKDW765Zf56-SyocYVv10eQdB3gsJ6e49rvIME9U_ybaqDAay7IWZyg

Write to your MP actionnetwork.org/letters/tell-your-mp-we-need-a-zerocovid-strategy?fbclid=IwAR1DEktbiRU5Aj7t03HtyEP2RpDU99rIKhgfR_TA-XZC6hFFtuENLAefRMw

Kazzyhoward the vaccination programme seems rather pointless then.

catsarecute zero covid is an extremist movement.

@MaxNormal

Kazzyhoward the vaccination programme seems rather pointless then.

The vaccination programme means we won't need to be in lockdown. It'll just be constant catch up for a bit with the new strains.

Saying no to 1000 audience venues or a 100 person wedding doesn't mean we can't go to restaurants, gyms etc with precautions in place.

I'm sorry but thats a shit vision of the future. Maybe people want gigs and festivals and large weddings. Maybe people in those industries want to earn a living.
We've done our part all year, we've got a vaccine roll out, stop shifting the goalposts.
If the NHS can cope we need to be open.

vera99

My small thin gipsy wedding - I don't thinks sI”

🤣
Would have suited us. We’re not party animals, at all. Registry then dinner party for dozen most loved would have been perfect but of course, because of other people, we went along with it all and had a pretty mediocre day.
The dinner at home with those dozen loved ones when we got back from honeymoon was fantastic.

To be honest if we are still going to live with restrictions I'm thinking why would I bother being vaccinated? I'm severely needle phobic so even the thought of it makes me panic but with DH's help I'll have it. But why would I put myself through it if I've still got to live with restrictions?

@PinkSparklyPussyCat

To be honest if we are still going to live with restrictions I'm thinking why would I bother being vaccinated? I'm severely needle phobic so even the thought of it makes me panic but with DH's help I'll have it. But why would I put myself through it if I've still got to live with restrictions?

Yep I think a lot of people might feel the same

@MargosKaftan

I do wonder whats the point in vaccines if they won't stop covid being something we have to worry about. Once we are all vaccinated, what will be the point in social distancing? If you can't catch it or spread it, surely it doesn't matter if you are 2m away from someone who also can't catch it or spread it?

Isn't that how it works? The few who won't have the jab can keep themselves locked away. No reason for the rest of us to suffer.

As I understand it, there needs to be a certain percentage immunity in order to be sure the NHS can cope. As vaccines may only achieve up to 90% immunity, there needs to be very high take up of the vaccine to make sure the numbers still susceptible will be manageable. A great deal will depend on how many decide to refuse the vaccine.

@MaxNormal

I'm sorry but thats a shit vision of the future. Maybe people want gigs and festivals and large weddings. Maybe people in those industries want to earn a living. We've done our part all year, we've got a vaccine roll out, stop shifting the goalposts. If the NHS can cope we need to be open.

Couldn’t agree more

Imagine being 22 and seeing that people are ok with taking away the good stuff for little benefit to you

No way do I want it either

MaxNormal of course zero covid is not extremist! Do you think all the countries that have got a zero covid strategy are extremists? Because I want to live like them. Zero covid is normality, I can't see why anyone wouldn't want it. The only extreme thing about it would be strict border controls. I'm ok with that.

It feels like our government are the extremists to me, over 100,000 deaths and counting plus a tanked economy. The only winners seem to be their rich mates who are getting private contracts where they can skim a tidy sum off into their back pockets.

Zero covid is normality, I can't see why anyone wouldn't want it.

Living in a world of closed borders is not normality or realism.
Australia and New Zealand are going to have some interesting adjustments when they reopen post vaccine.

"Australia and New Zealand are going to have some interesting adjustments when they reopen post vaccine."

They've got the time and space to do that safely though. With all their population already vaccinated. No restrictions in the meantime whilst they roll out their vaccination programme, time to adjust for new variants, and at their own pace. A luxury that we don't have, and won't have if we carry on like this. I would still far far rather be in their position than the one we are currently in.

My issue with zero covid is that I don’t think it’s practical to achieve it given we have a land border (which we can’t close) with a nation which has free movement with 26 other countries.

@catsarecute

"Australia and New Zealand are going to have some interesting adjustments when they reopen post vaccine."

They've got the time and space to do that safely though. With all their population already vaccinated. No restrictions in the meantime whilst they roll out their vaccination programme, time to adjust for new variants, and at their own pace. A luxury that we don't have, and won't have if we carry on like this. I would still far far rather be in their position than the one we are currently in.

I’d love to live there at the moment but given the vaccine is not 100% effective (whichever one you use) they could be looking at moving from zero community transmission to a situation of community transmission, so it will have to be managed very carefully.

Hopefully if there is high compliance with vacation then we can get on with life If not then yes this is the reality Anti vaxxers on your head be it

Whatever needs to happen is what needs to happen.

Imagine being 22 and seeing that people are ok with taking away the good stuff for little benefit to you

Better than being 22 and oops there go nanna and granddad, and a few aunts and uncles. Next door all died too. Oh, and it turns out that Mum had a very mild bacterial infection after cutting her hand so she's gone too. Underlying conditions, what can you do?

Our government have been supremely shit at handling this at some points, but the world as a whole has got it right. Better to subdue some social activities for a while than risk wiping out even more lives unnecessarily. We certainly can't count on every individual to make the right choices, the spike in deaths a few weeks after Christmas proved that. Also some of those bored 22 year olds could also have or develop one of the myriad underlying conditions. Better to live to fight - and get smashed and snog strangers - another day...

I’d love to live there at the moment but given the vaccine is not 100% effective (whichever one you use)

Neither is the flu vaccine but you don't hear people complaining about that.

Better than being 22 and oops there go nanna and granddad, and a few aunts and uncles. Next door all died too. Oh, and it turns out that Mum had a very mild bacterial infection after cutting her hand so she's gone too. Underlying conditions, what can you do?

With vaccines?

@catsarecute

"Australia and New Zealand are going to have some interesting adjustments when they reopen post vaccine."

They've got the time and space to do that safely though. With all their population already vaccinated. No restrictions in the meantime whilst they roll out their vaccination programme, time to adjust for new variants, and at their own pace. A luxury that we don't have, and won't have if we carry on like this. I would still far far rather be in their position than the one we are currently in.

I'd rather be in their position too, but it is going to be a difficult adjustment from them to reopen and accept some Covid deaths as inevitable - far, far smaller numbers than if they hadn't taken the course they did but it'll be a tough transition all the same.