Chances of a March return for primaries?

[NoGoodOptions]

What do we think the chances are for a March return for primaries? The case numbers and R-rate as well as vaccination figures all look hopeful. It's such a hard slog wfh ft with two young children (5 and 7), and I think as a result I'm susceptible to any shred of optimism. On the one hand many on these fora seem to think after Easter, on the other hand I know a few local families that are planning to go on like this until September 😱! Government say it's their top priority to get the schools back, but equally they've led us on so many times before. What do we think is the likelihood??? Thanks!

Whilst explaining, time and time again, the vaccines will reduce deaths first. The pressure hospitals are under will not decrease at the same rate because the people who live and need hospital treatment (hence putting pressure) on the NHS are not in the top priority groups for vaccines.

The overwhelming majority of hospital admission were people in the top priority groups.

Hospital admissions are complicated by the sad fact that over 80s with covid are often just taken directly to palliative care.

@pinkhappy

Hospital admissions are complicated by the sad fact that over 80s with covid are often just taken directly to palliative care.

But they are still in hospital requiring care and resources (and counted in the figures)

Group 6 are being vaccinated in march according to omnivaccine -so wont be immune until mid-end April which is a bit worrying if they go back before then.

Personally I want school back and outdoor places to visit - but think this time they will be cautious opening up.

But they are still in hospital requiring care and resources (and counted in the figures)

Yes but I am not sure what proportion of palliative care happens I’m hospitals. They rarely go to ICU and they sadly also often die very quickly.

Group 6 are being vaccinated in march according to omnivaccine

Group 6 has started to be vaccinated already and will happen more seriously in a few days I assume.

@pinkhappy

Group 6 are being vaccinated in march according to omnivaccine

Group 6 has started to be vaccinated already and will happen more seriously in a few days I assume.

is understood the government will aim to offer the jab to group six - and all over-50s - by May.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56012530

Some area's will reach group 6 before May of course

is understood the government will aim to offer the jab to group six - and all over-50s - by May.

Yes group 6 is just really big. But at the very fast rate they are achieving it looks like it should be done quite a lot before May.

I think we'll be told on 22 Feb that Reception and Year 1 will go back on 8th March. Then gradually all other year groups will return.

I think we'll be told on 22 Feb that Reception and Year 1 will go back on 8th March. Then gradually all other year groups will return.

Yes. I am sure one of the things weighing on their minds is whether many people will then say “My children are in school all day with 30 others so why shouldn’t I see my friends” as they did last time. That would be a disaster.

Whoever goes back i hope there's some slight restriction lifted for the other children still at home to see their peers in some way. The outdoor rule of 6 for example would be amazing at this point, give them back a little part of their lives, social interaction is a huge benefit for children all ages.

Outdoor rule of 6 including sport could surely be brought in before March.

@bumbleymummy

Outdoor rule of 6 including sport could surely be brought in before March.

I hope so. Id take this over school re opening tbh

SCHOOLS DID NOT CLOSE BECAUSE TEACHERS WERE SCARED. SCHOOLS CLOSED BECAUSE THEY ARE HUGE VECTORS FOR TRANSMISSION.

@YouHadMeAtWoof

SCHOOLS DID NOT CLOSE BECAUSE TEACHERS WERE SCARED. SCHOOLS CLOSED BECAUSE THEY ARE HUGE VECTORS FOR TRANSMISSION.

No it wasn’t that. It was because the hospitals were overwhelmed it’s always been the reason.

No need to shout.

I thought schools closed because of both the huge numbers in hospital and that case numbers were gong up during the November lockdown because of the Kent variant.

Will be back 8th March.

100%.

Case numbers were 60,000+ a day when the schools broke up for Christmas. We're now at 13,000, which is about where we were at the start of December. I think they are going to be taking things slowly, so we aren't back at the same place within weeks of schools returning 😬

Doubling rates are around 150days atm so it would take a while to get back to that.

Thats at the moment while schools are off. The rate will increase rapidly when they go back won't they? (I so want schools back though...)

SCHOOLS DID NOT CLOSE BECAUSE TEACHERS WERE SCARED. SCHOOLS CLOSED BECAUSE THEY ARE HUGE VECTORS FOR TRANSMISSION.

No it wasn’t that. It was because the hospitals were overwhelmed it’s always been the reason.

These two things are not mutually exclusive.

We know that schools were driving the R rate up. Enough to mean that there was more of a problem with case rate and therefore hospitalisations.

Schools dont have to increase the R by much to create a tipping point problem.

@pinkhappy

Group 6 are being vaccinated in march according to omnivaccine

Group 6 has started to be vaccinated already and will happen more seriously in a few days I assume.

Still doing group 4 where I am

@Thatwaslulu

Put it this way: Boris and Gav are not in agreement on when schools should return. Gav is more cautious.

Gav wanted schools back on 22 Feb but Boris said no

Boris was the last man standing when it came to closing them in Jan according to The Sunday Times.

As long as they don't open anything else for a good 3+ weeks, otherwise we'll never know if schools really do cause an increase in infections.