Chances of a March return for primaries?

[NoGoodOptions]

What do we think the chances are for a March return for primaries? The case numbers and R-rate as well as vaccination figures all look hopeful. It's such a hard slog wfh ft with two young children (5 and 7), and I think as a result I'm susceptible to any shred of optimism. On the one hand many on these fora seem to think after Easter, on the other hand I know a few local families that are planning to go on like this until September 😱! Government say it's their top priority to get the schools back, but equally they've led us on so many times before. What do we think is the likelihood??? Thanks!

The people being vaccinated now, crudely are the people who would die.

Hmmm, the people being vaccinated now are in the group which has the highest chance of dying.

Plenty (the vast vast majority) of 80 year olds who are covid-positive will recover. They most certainly do increase the pressure on hospitals.

@Itisasecret Despite your attitude towards the ‘general public’ your argument is muddled. Are you saying that patients who have died or will die from Covid have not placed the NHS under pressure?

What’s the mean hospital admission length for COVID +ve pts in each age bracket?
What’s the cost of a night in ICU?
How much does a specialist palliative care assessment cost?

@Themostwonderfultimeoftheyear

So glad to be in Wales right now and DS going back on the 22nd. Foundation phase should go back on 8th March in England imo.

I don’t want to be going round in circles I would much rather lockdown over winter than summer.

While I'm sure most would like to see schools return quickly, I'm really hoping a sensible approach is adopted and that they wait at least until after Easter. I'd like to see numbers continue to go down and visibly stay down before everything gets reopened. The vaccine rollout is of course encouraging and giving us all that but of hope needed, but I don't believe enough of communities are protected yet. I'm also concerned at the lack of urgency issuing second doses of the vaccine, this is being under reported- we need to be sure that this lockdown ending doesn't lead us into further restrictions down the line. In the big picture of things a couple of extra weeks prior toEaster is really not a biggie- I hope they use some common sense this time around I really do

[quote Doublefaced]@Itisasecret Despite your attitude towards the ‘general public’ your argument is muddled. Are you saying that patients who have died or will die from Covid have not placed the NHS under pressure?

What’s the mean hospital admission length for COVID +ve pts in each age bracket?
What’s the cost of a night in ICU?
How much does a specialist palliative care assessment cost?[/quote]
Here is a chart that shows outcomes from hospital cases by age band
The top 4 priority groups absolutely do not “all die”, a significant proportion are either still in hospital or have been discharged and therefore do place pressure on the NHS
ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/624/cpsprodpb/vivo/live/images/2021/2/3/9b7489df-71e2-408b-a4bf-34508d492ff6.jpg

Don’t think so, they’ll need data on the impact of the new variants.

Primaries back 8th March, there might be a few areas with higher prevalence who have to wait until after Easter. There are parts of North Cornwall and Devon which are almost covid free - why should they wait a minute longer if the picture stays the same. Rates will be very low in another month unless something really very strange happens.

I think secondaries might be after Easter though - they're inherrantly riskier.

Yes it is because it then transmits to the community, as we’ve seen. and this isn’t a then if it’s not hospitalising/killing people. People seem to forget that the lockdown was to take pressure off the nhs. If we reduce the risk of hospitalisation through vaccination then it doesn’t matter if there are more cases in the community. In fact, more people contracting it mildly and recovering is a good thing because then they’re also contributing to herd immunity and reducing spread while the vaccine is being rolled out to the less vulnerable groups.

@Abraxan

CEV is in group 4. The top 4 groups are the most likely to be hospitalised/die.

Yes, I know CEV is group 4.
CV who are still at risk of serious illness are group 6.

I am CV and caught covid which resulted in me being in hospital.
Hence my interest in the fact that CV groups won't have been vaccinated and many of those will be working in schools or have children in schools.

But the numbers are unlikely to put a strain on the NHS which is what the restrictions have been about. Vaccinating the top four groups will take enough pressure off to reduce restrictions. CV people were working in schools and had children in schools from September.

I'm sorry to hear that you are worried worried @Abraxan. I understand your concerns. It's nice to know that groups 1-4 will have be vaccinated but still makes you concerned for yourself and colleagues and parents in school who don't fall into those categories and will be mixing in large bubbles with no social distancing

I have a couple of CV colleagues who will be going back having not had their vaccinations, plus another selection of colleagues who aren't CV but their age or weight puts them at risk from long covid if not anything else.

I think it would make sense for year R, 1 and 2 to go back, as well as exam years, and then wait till after Easter for the rest which would mean more teachers had been vaccinated. I don't like the idea of sending my children back unless at least the more vulnerable teachers have been vaccinated.

The PM will be publishing a road map soon. Hopefully this will include school openings.

I agree that I suspect it will allow local authorities to determine if a school can open if cases are particularly high still. That just makes sense.

@KeyboardWorriers

I think it would make sense for year R, 1 and 2 to go back, as well as exam years, and then wait till after Easter for the rest which would mean more teachers had been vaccinated. I don't like the idea of sending my children back unless at least the more vulnerable teachers have been vaccinated.

Reception and years 1 and 2 is our entire school. So they'd be no extra space, no social distancing, etc. It would be just back as normal.

Hopefully the transmission if the virus is better than it was last term. Going back pretty much as normal did not go well in many schools then. Hopefully it will be better this time round if that's the case.

My opinion is that some return of primary schools will happen. May not be all years, and may not include secondaries, but some return.

Put it this way: Boris and Gav are not in agreement on when schools should return. Gav is more cautious.

It’s usually Bojo who is more cautious isn’t it?

I reckon 8th March
Boris will announce it on 22nd Feb with his road map

It looks like we could be down at 4000 cases a day by March 8. When was it last that low?

If cases are as low as 4000 a day by then with almost 20 million vaccinated I will be prepared to start chaining myself to railings over primary schools being open.

Secondaries more complicated and higher risk so I can understand being more cautious.

In my head I have after Easter. I'd rather be pleasantly surprised then bitterly disappointed if I was thinking 8 March.

I'm not thinking that it will all just be open on the 8th, that certainly isn't the vibes I'm getting from the two schools my DC are at.

It's frustrating because we aren't getting much from school so I am booking extra stuff for the DC but don't want to spend if they will be back at school. Their English and Maths tutor has reserved "after school" slots for us in readiness, but we are using a lot of Outschool classes and don't want to miss out with our favourite teachers but I don't want to pay for classes if they will be back at school.

(am sure it is just as impossible for schools to plan on which little notice)

@AfternoonToffee

In my head I have after Easter. I'd rather be pleasantly surprised then bitterly disappointed if I was thinking 8 March.

I'm not thinking that it will all just be open on the 8th, that certainly isn't the vibes I'm getting from the two schools my DC are at.

The schools won’t know more really.

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow yes, it's surprising. I think it's because he is so universally disliked that he's trying to get his reputation back by pretending he is listening