New SA strain and Bristol - how bad is it?!

[squishedblueberry]

SIL lives in Bristol and suffers health anxiety. She’s just phoned us really stressed out as Matt Hancock has said to people to use up food stocks before even going out for food and to stay at home not even going out for exercise.
I’ll be honest, I’ve stayed away from the news for a bit as my mind hasn’t been in the best place but I would really like to be able to reassure her a bit, if there is any reassurance to be had.

I’ve had a look at news outlets but they all seem very sensationalist.

She’s convinced this is the beginning of the end. And not in a good way, and that the strain is very very serious which is why the government is taking such a stringent approach (although they aren’t stopping anyone leaving the house).

She’s also convinced we are well on the way to becoming China

I know I could google more info and I’ve tried but I don’t fully understand the different strains. Does anyone who works in this kind of field have any advice for how I can try to calm her with some facts?

She was under the impression that the variants would get weaker so the virus would become less deadly (I think someone else told her that to reassure her).

I’m a bit worried about her, she’s really spiralling and is too scared to go to the supermarket and we don’t live anywhere close.

I live near Bristol and work in Bristol and I haven’t heard this at all....!??!

Considering that cases in South Africa, where it originates, are still falling I doubt it's that bad.

What makes her think the new variant is more deadly? I understand that it’s more transmissible but not necessarily more deadly?

Also, becoming China how?

Matt Hancock has either lost his marbles or it's much worse than they're telling us. As he hasn't locked his wife and children indoors as of a week or so ago, my money's on marbles.

No need to panic. The South Africa strain may be more spreadable and slightly more resistant to vaccines but It’s not meaningfully more severe don’t think it’s a huge deal - I think it’s more the government wanting to find out more about where and how it’s spreading.
Viruses mutate all the time. Only a few countries including the UK do the genomic sequencing so most countries are none the wiser. And only 5% of positive tests are sequenced here so chances are it is pretty much everywhere anyway.

I think your dd may have been misinformed?

I'm sorry, I can't link but I heard on the radio there were 32 cases of that variant in Bristol.

If she's also aware of the China problem, hopefully that figure will reassure her.

They will be surge testing there.

That's an interesting bit of cognitive dissonance with her worrying about turning into China but also being really scared of the virus - but the government have done an amazing job of scaring the bejesus out of people.

I've just googled and the Daily Mail is reporting him having said that but can't see it anywhere else, so I'm hoping that means it's not true! Thanks for the calm and measured advice!

She thinks lockdown will never be lifted properly and we'll need papers to go anywhere etc etc - it's her anxiety, she's not normally like this at all.

Op, I live in SA and maybe you can reassure your SIL that if it was that bad, we wouldn't have just had some restrictions lifted this week. Our cases have dropped by half now and to me it sounds like there seems to be some scaremongering happening for some reason.

Us becoming China when the government won’t even close the borders?

I think it's more of a case that the Government have realised this is the approach we should have done in the first place, the vaccine rollout is going to help and they don't want to screw it up now and so they are doing what alot of people have said should have been done from the first place. I would reassure her that it's a good thing. Can she get food dropped off by someone, book some slots through any of the supermarkets?
It's horrible when anxiety sets in, hard to shake off. When I feel like I'm spiralling into worrying I try to stay off the news and social media, watch some catch up series and just pretend all is OK for a few days till I shake off that feeling, hope she finds a way to ease her worries

So people in Bristol shouldn't go to the shops but flights full of people from all over can just carry on coming in unchecked, righto Matt Hancock

It’s bad because the vaccines are less effective on it, not because it’s more deadly. They want people in these areas to stay in so they don’t spread it further. If everyone there just stays in unless they really have to go out, there may be a chance it doesn’t spread.

I live in Bristol (well S Glos) this is the official info I have seen

Statement from South Gloucestershire Council regarding local cases of a Covid-19 "variant of concern":

"We are currently working with the Public Health England (PHE) South West Health Protection team to investigate a cluster of cases in Bristol and South Gloucestershire of Covid-19. These have been identified as the Kent variant of the virus (variant of concern VOC202012/01) and also have the E484K mutation."

"Some of the cases in the cluster are linked, and further testing and public health investigations are underway."

"In line with the announcement made by the Secretary of State today [Tue 2nd Feb 2021], we will be working with PHE colleagues and partners in Bristol City Council to determine how best to enhance investigations in the local area to understand more about the transmission of the virus and its behaviour and any further control measures required."

"For now, our advice remains the same: the best way to stop the spread of the virus is to observe social distancing and abide by the restrictions in place. Whilst in lockdown, it is important that we stay at home unless it is absolutely essential to go out. This includes working from home if you can.

My understanding I live Bristol and Bristol post live is crap local newspaper that likes to scare people.

Its the British Kent varient b117 with a small mutation chain e448k that appears in south African sequence.
Think 11 cases Bristol
32 cases are Liverpool.
Today and yesterday seemed as busy out as ever.
Locals and freinds don't seem to be panicking
Bristol case rates 7days per 100k have been falling if we had mutant virus surely it be rising.
Hospital numbers slowly falling.
South glos Council so doing asymptomatic testing centres in Bradley stoke and Kingswood.

I think my ocado delivery comes from Bristol. Should I be worried.

It isn’t the South Africa strain causing concern in Bristol. It’s a mutated version of the Kent variant which has the same E484k change that the South African variant has. That’s potentially an issue with vaccines being less effective.

I don’t understand why they’re not releasing the postcodes where the cases have been found like in other areas with other variants of concern.

Today and yesterday seemed as busy out as ever.

That’s a real worry.

Bristol case rates 7days per 100k have been falling if we had mutant virus surely it be rising.

Cases don’t rise immediately. It takes a few days. This strain will have a transmission advantage over the original corona version. That means it could quickly become the dominant strain here and the dominant strain being one which is better at evading immunity from previous infection and vaccination is bad news.

People really do need to take this seriously and stay home.

I think a lot of it is to make sure that the cases continue to go down so the vaccine will still have some level of effect . I understand her worry but I think you should point her in the direction of some mental health support . Poor thing 😢

As someone has mentioned Bristol post would have it and they don’t mention for us to stay at home and lock up. Just to follow the general advise that is just to stay at home as much as possible.

Bp mentions 11 cases of this variant

@PurpleDaisies

Today and yesterday seemed as busy out as ever.

That’s a real worry.

Bristol case rates 7days per 100k have been falling if we had mutant virus surely it be rising.

Cases don’t rise immediately. It takes a few days. This strain will have a transmission advantage over the original corona version. That means it could quickly become the dominant strain here and the dominant strain being one which is better at evading immunity from previous infection and vaccination is bad news.

People really do need to take this seriously and stay home.

People still need to go to work. We can't all just stay home. That's where most people are going.

@PurpleDaisies

It isn’t the South Africa strain causing concern in Bristol. It’s a mutated version of the Kent variant which has the same E484k change that the South African variant has. That’s potentially an issue with vaccines being less effective.

I don’t understand why they’re not releasing the postcodes where the cases have been found like in other areas with other variants of concern.

Its quite a large city and I seldom venture to South Bristol . Very rarely do I travel to North or west Bristol. I am not bristolian native i moved here and husband always goes on about it being wrong side of the river. I haven't been city centre since Xmas. I literally stay within 4post codes to do essential shopping, banking and walk the dog. My children are all at home.

People still need to go to work. We can't all just stay home. That's where most people are going.

Well, yes. I meant stay home except for the exceptions set out in the guidance for not staying at home. I assumed people would realise those exceptions still applied.

I also live in Bristol and was on a work zoom call where this was discussed today. Message remains the same, follow guidance, stay home as much as possible. 11 confirmed cases of the new variant apparently.

I've stopped following news bulletins so don't know if that Matt Hancock quote is accurate.

I’m not quite sure how your response relates to why they’re not releasing the postcodes as they have done elsewhere @3asAbird