New SA strain and Bristol - how bad is it?!

[squishedblueberry]

SIL lives in Bristol and suffers health anxiety. She’s just phoned us really stressed out as Matt Hancock has said to people to use up food stocks before even going out for food and to stay at home not even going out for exercise.
I’ll be honest, I’ve stayed away from the news for a bit as my mind hasn’t been in the best place but I would really like to be able to reassure her a bit, if there is any reassurance to be had.

I’ve had a look at news outlets but they all seem very sensationalist.

She’s convinced this is the beginning of the end. And not in a good way, and that the strain is very very serious which is why the government is taking such a stringent approach (although they aren’t stopping anyone leaving the house).

She’s also convinced we are well on the way to becoming China

I know I could google more info and I’ve tried but I don’t fully understand the different strains. Does anyone who works in this kind of field have any advice for how I can try to calm her with some facts?

She was under the impression that the variants would get weaker so the virus would become less deadly (I think someone else told her that to reassure her).

I’m a bit worried about her, she’s really spiralling and is too scared to go to the supermarket and we don’t live anywhere close.

The South African variant has a mutation that makes it easier for it to bypass the immune system which consequently means that vaccinations are likely to be less effective against this strain and people who have already had the original strain may be more easily infected with this strain. It also has the same mutation as the Kent variant in terms of it being more transmissible too. It’s not believed to be more dangerous but because it’s more transmissible than the original version and the issue with vaccinations being less effective against this strain, they are very keen to isolate all cases and avoid further spread of this variant hence the very serious stay at home message. Reassure your SIL that she’d be at no more risk if she caught this variant and the vaccinations are still believed to work against this variant but at a lower efficiency rate. Viruses do mutate and the vaccine companies are looking at adapting the vaccinations to this variant. It’s far from ideal in terms of resuming more normality but it’s not as scary as it all sounds and I say this as someone who struggles with health anxiety.

@PurpleDaisies

I’m not quite sure how your response relates to why they’re not releasing the postcodes as they have done elsewhere *@3asAbird*

They being bit cagey I read on Facebook

Director of Public Health in Bristol has said it has been found on borders with South Glos, so we need to be very vigilant
Facebook could be wrong.
its areas that sit on sgc and Bristol border so this entails both councils working well together in my experience doesn't always happen .
They also said some linked so I think they gathering more information right now.
I already live in fairly high rate area so have been cautious.

I’m in Bristol and this is literally the first I’ve heard of this.

@PurpleDaisies

I’m not quite sure how your response relates to why they’re not releasing the postcodes as they have done elsewhere *@3asAbird*

Sorry roundabout point is many of my friends locally doing same thing this lockdown. We still all being cautious and not travelling far outside our own suburbs. Husband is working nearby area with very few people and keeps distance . Children at-home we were just trying avoid getting regular covid. Its no surprise the Kent varient escaped south east lots travel for work between Bristol and London.

This sums it up well. www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/03/uk-south-african-covid-19-mutations-vaccine?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

@SilverGlitterBaubles

So people in Bristol shouldn't go to the shops but flights full of people from all over can just carry on coming in unchecked, righto Matt Hancock

Tbf to him, apparently he wanted hotel isolation for all travellers coming in from abroad and agreed with SAGE on this. However, Boris had other ideas...

Here is the Matt Hancock statement in parliament. Seems to be the same stay at home message as for lockdown -
news.sky.com/story/covid-19-more-mutations-of-concern-found-in-bristol-and-liverpool-says-matt-hancock-12206523

And here is what another mp (not Hancock) said about thinking if you need to make that trip out, again I think it's fairly consistent with the general message about the lockdown.
news.sky.com/story/covid-19-minister-tells-people-in-areas-where-south-african-variant-found-to-think-again-before-leaving-home-12206183.

Matt Hancock was asked on bbc breakfast this morning if a stronger stay at home message was going to be enforced in these areas - his answer was stay at home and although the general guidance was to go out only for essential shopping, in these areas try and use what you have in your cupboards first and minimise all social contact

I read the situation as they're trying to limit the spread of these new variants and lockdown gives that opportunity. As others have said there is no evidence that new variants are more deadly but they are understood to be more infectious/transmissible.

The gov has stressed the need for people to follow the isolation rules if they have been in contact with a confirmed case/ have tested positive/ have symptoms themselves but I think that's a far cry from being like China. There was an analysis recently in the UK about the proportion of people that don't comply if they have symptoms of have been in contact with a case and this is an area that will likely be spreading cases so it seems right that they repeat the importance of isolating and testing if you may be infected. The most I have seen is some discussions in the press about various policy options to aid compliance but these have been around creating a reward/bonus people for complying.

Hope your SIL is okay. Health anxiety is a horrid thing. I agree with other posters that turning the news off would help as it's been very bleak recently. Some of the more explicit reports are clearly to try and get those not complying to comply but the side effect is that they also terrify people.

The case numbers are not divided into variant currently other than we know 11 cases - their concern is about it spreading within communities and becoeing out of control leading to huge rises given its incrased contagion rates. If she stays home what is she worrying about - limit contact try and get delivery slots (I have had plenty of success with this local to me by buying a delivery pass for a 10 er for 3 months. I can pretty much book up two shops one per week for delivery no issues whereas previously I struggled to get slots and was up at silly hours trying. If she does have to go out - plenty of hand gel good mask protocal (ie take 3 or 4 out change regularly and don't fiddle with it - wear in the street as well as shops, DO NOT TOUCH THINGS so keep your hands to yourself and only touch where absolutely unavoidable so doors and such use feet, elbows ets not bare hands. At the moement if I go out I wear gloves - just normal ones - and it reminds me to not touch things. Keep distance step back and wait and if she is anxious - strip off out layer clothes when home and wash immediately and shower self. I think ontop of everything else we have all got lax with hygeine again.

It's not South Africa, it's Kent.

news.bristol.gov.uk/news/a-statement-from-bristols-director-of-public-health-1

More transmissible = risk increasing hospital admissions again. They’re just being cautious. The last thing we need now is an increase in admissions when we’re only just past the peak of the 3rd wave.

Not good news for South Wales then, either. I live with the Old Severn crossing in view of my house; the traffic going to and fro is relentless. Way more than during the first initial lockdown.

Sorry didn’t mean to abandon the thread thanks to everyone who replied this is really useful. I’m trying to get her to seek help for her anxiety as well.

It seems both Bristo and south glos council public health wish to do specific postcodes pcr testing and named the specific postcodes .

www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/bristol-set-coronavirus-surge-testing-4975821

www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/bristol-set-coronavirus-surge-testing-4975821