If you are against the lockdown policy, what is your alternative?

[cheeseismydownfall]

I'm sure we all agree that lockdown is truly shit for so many reasons - the long term economic impact on the country and individuals, the knock on impact on other critical aspects of health care, the damage to children's education, the mental health crisis. I know many people feel very uncomfortable about the civil liberty aspect of lockdown. And I completely understand that many people are deeply angry with how the situation was handled, and feel that we would be in a better place now if the government had taken different decisions.

But for those of you who are 'anti lockdown' - what is the alternative, now we are in the position we are in? We saw after Christmas what will happen to the NHS if there is no effort made to check transmission. It will be overwhelmed. And the impact to society if the NHS fails seems pretty scary to me.

Shielding the elderly and vulnerable isn't practical in reality because of intergenerational dependence, so I think that is off the cards.

The only other option would seem to be utterly ruthless about triage, which would see covid patients left to die in their homes - forcibly restrained there if need be. That to me is the stuff of nightmares.

So what are the other options? This is not a goady post - I am genuinely interested in how other people would approach this.

Anyone who tried to promote "The great barrington declaration" is an airhead.

@Hitchyhero

God this is depressing. I was very pro lockdowb at first but this clearly not working. Rates have gone up and up, vaccines not working with new varients. At some point (which I think is now) the lockdown effects outweigh the covid impact)

Mental health, other health issues, kids education, the economy, our jobs and homes are all getting worse because the priority is on covid. Some of us are on the brink of losing everything (and universal credit is a complete joke for 'support'). I hate to be that guy but I don't think risk ruining 3 whole generations future to save a people towards the latter end of their lives.

My opinion, continue to tell elderly people to shield and give them support. Open everything back up with protection measures in place, cleanliness and covid regs in place. Give people options to go to school or remote learn... Same with jobs. But everything open and back to what is fairly normal.

Where is your evidence that vaccines will not work with new variants? Rates have gone up and up after lockdowns have been lifted not because of lockdowns. The evidence coming out of Israel shows that once you have vaccinated most of the vulnerable, the hospitalisation and death rates go down. Once we are in that state, there will be no reason to stay locked down.

@Rosehip10

Oh idiotic people will state "Shield the vulnerable and the rest of us crack on!" and never quantify beyond this rubbish or engage when people call them out on it

Indeed. And they can never explain how society is going to function without these “ elderly “ over 50s and even the under 50s who are vulnerable.

They are your kids teachers, NHS staff, retail and distributor staff, local authority workers, refuse collectors, utility and transport workers.

Let’s see how long life “ returns to normal “ when there’s no one to empty the bins or maintain electricity, water and gas supplies or run supermarkets.

@Hitchyhero Why spout lies? Rates in the UK are falling and vaccines are being show to still be effective against the new strains, even if reduced to a degree.

The same way we deal with the flu. Maybe masks and social distancing when and where possible, but not mandatory.

I know this is all to save the NHS from being overrun, but isn't it the case every winter? They built those other hospitals and they are just sitting there.

We have tried lockdown and I dont believe it works. People say, "now can you imagine how it would be if we didn't lockdown?" But I cant imagine it being any worse. I really can't. I might be wrong, but we will never know. Because like they say, this is the new normal and so whenever it even looks like the NHS might have a bit of difficulty, everything else will have to grind to a halt.

God this is depressing. I was very pro lockdowb at first but this clearly not working. Rates have gone up and up, vaccines not working with new varients. At some point (which I think is now) the lockdown effects outweigh the covid impact)

Rates aren't going 'up and up' though, cases have fallen sharply. 7-day average down 57% since the Jan 9 peak. Hospital admissions now falling too. See attached or link below.
ourworldindata.org/grapher/uk-daily-new-covid-cases?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-11-01..latest&region=World

The vaccines do work with the new variants, they just have lower efficacy. Plus they can be tweaked (and are being) to improve efficacy against the new variants.

The Great Barrington Declaration was nonsense. Open everything up and then what was the big plan? When the vulnerable who had been locked away need medical attention (as they so often do), where would you put them when beds are full of Covid patients? How can you proceed with cancer treatment when community rates are so high? You've got healthcare professionals, teachers, transport workers, supermarket staff off sick, how does society function?

It is not only the elderly who are medically vulnerable and would need to shield in the Great Barrington scenario...how would people shield completely? within families? Stop working? No longer attend school?

Wrt the NHS failing...I don't know if you have had medical treatment in the last year, but I have been seen by my GP, had blood tests, and regular calls, my ds has had therapies and phone and video appointments, my dd2 has had outpatients appointments, my friend has had emergency treatment and an operation, another friends mum has had breast cancer treatment, my mum had an ambulance and was in ICU in the summer, her friend has had heart scans....I could go on, but my point is that in my opinion and experience, the NHS hasn't failed.

@TheChip

The same way we deal with the flu. Maybe masks and social distancing when and where possible, but not mandatory.

I know this is all to save the NHS from being overrun, but isn't it the case every winter? They built those other hospitals and they are just sitting there.

We have tried lockdown and I dont believe it works. People say, "now can you imagine how it would be if we didn't lockdown?" But I cant imagine it being any worse. I really can't. I might be wrong, but we will never know. Because like they say, this is the new normal and so whenever it even looks like the NHS might have a bit of difficulty, everything else will have to grind to a halt.

No it isn't the same very winter. Every winter the hospitals are overrun and the NHS is overwhelmed. This year has been beyond our worst nightmares. I've worked for the NHS for 15 years and never seen anything like it. Cases are coming down now, that is a direct result of lockdown. A couple of weeks after cases start coming down, the death rate will also come down. Vaccinating groups 1-4 will hopefully prevent 99% of deaths. Fingers crossed it works.

@TheChip Right, so covid is allowed to run free in the UK. Hospitals would soon be completely over run and would not be able to treat any more people. So are you saying having people dying at home, people dying who could survive and hospitals basically not accepting anyone for anything is a "solution"?

Even if most people got it survived, you think it would do the country any good to have 100,000s of people sick off work etc? The economy would be in an even worse state.

God this is depressing. I was very pro lockdowb at first but this clearly not working. Rates have gone up and up, vaccines not working with new varients. At some point (which I think is now) the lockdown effects outweigh the covid impact)

I think you need to keep a closer eye on the news and stay away from Social media luv

Case numbers ARE coming down and very quickly. Hospitalization coming down too, deaths levelling off, will start to fall soon.

The vaccines ARE still effective against the new strains, just to a slightly lesser extent

Locking down now is clearly sensible given the rates and the vaccine being rolled out, but I am going to turn the question on its head:

If a vaccine resistant strain emerged or the vaccines don’t end up meaning we can safely open up, what’s your suggestion for what we do then? (I’m very much hoping this won’t happen).

We can’t keep locking down for several months at a time if the vaccines don’t get us out of this, so I bloody well hope there is an alternative.

I hope we won’t get to this point but I’m always surprised at the way people are so keen to say nothing you can do with rising rates except shut the country down in a completely unsustainable way. If rates keep spiking for the next few years, we will have to move to a plan B.

What? How can you twist what I have said to suggesting that people dying at home is a solution?

All I'm saying is that I don't think things would be that much different if we didn't have lockdowns. Right or wrong, I do not know. Im not in a position to trial run it either so don't get too caught up in what I think. That's all it is, a thought.

I think the bigger question is how to stop the NHS being overwhelmed? Let's face it we ALL pay for the NHS so we should not be made to feel guilty for the virus causing more admissions, this is exactly what the government are doing! Frankly the NHS needs to be fixed, sort out the funding, the many levels of management and the bureaucracy.

I'm not anti lockdown but I think we should be given the freedom to make our own choices and if people want to take the risks to meet friends or family they should be allowed.

The government should now be talking about how they plan to avoid lockdown ever happening again. Or are they all planning to resign before that?

What I am very much against is lockdown being Plan A.

It should be plan Z: an absolute last resort.

Because we're still in the phase of the government throwing billions upon billions (which will have to be paid back) at the problem, the true consequences of lockdown haven't yet been felt; so, the government and the lockdown zealots can keep crowing "lockdown is the ONLY way to control the virus", because we are blissfully shielded by the magic money tree.

After furlough ends, unemployment is at staggering levels that Thatcher would have been proud of, we are even more of a nation of obese adults and children (as our exercise was snatched away), mental health is at rock bottom, and certain industries have been killed stone dead beyond recovery (how long before the West End theatres are sold off as luxury flats?), perhaps then people might start to say "lockdown was utterly catastrophic, and must never, ever happen again".

What I am very much afraid of is that lockdown might be wheeled out again, whenever the government sees fit, with "alas, the NHS is struggling again", preferring to squander billions on furlough, instead of investing in the NHS. THIS MUST NOT HAPPEN. The line in the sand has been drawn - the monumental precedent of lockdown has been set. We must fight tooth and nail to consign it to the dustbin of history, once the true consequences have been felt. At the moment, the government is waving those aside with "la la la lockdown la la la vaccine la la la look them in the eyes la la la next slide please la la la alas alas alas la la unprecedented la la la.

Go on then @wanderings, what do you think they should do instead?

We know lockdown is damaging - but unrestrained transmission would be worse. So what would you do to control transmission instead?

I think you are being a bit simplistic.

The reality is that lockdowns are not long term options. Simple as that.

They were used successfully by countries that shut their borders quickly (NZ and South Asian countries) managed to track and trace and isolate. Lockdowns worked under these conditions and these countries now have the virus under control.

The only other scenario where a lockdown can be a successful tool is if the lockdown is used to vaccine the elderly/vulnerable, then the rest of us and the vaccines actually work. That is what we are doing, as we left it too late to shut down our borders and we never go track/trace/isolate to work. If that scenario works then by summer we will be in a good place.

BUT If the vaccines don't work on new variants then it is game over for lockdown because you would simply be stuck indoor forever with no guarantee that the virus would ever 'burn itself out'.

And I think you already know what the alternative is if this scenario plays out. The lockdown obsessives just don't want to accept it....

The NHS can't cope with Covid patients? Long term we also have to ask why someone with cancer who is say 40 year old should die waiting for treatment as a result while an 80 year old (who already had lived to the average life expectancy age) with Covid gets treated and spends week in hospitals.

Brutal as it is it might come to making that choice. There you go.

And I think you already know what the alternative is if this scenario plays out. The lockdown obsessives just don't want to accept it

I genuinely don’t.

@Rosehip10

Oh idiotic people will state "Shield the vulnerable and the rest of us crack on!" and never quantify beyond this rubbish or engage when people call them out on it

Interesting, because I find that those who support lockdown policy are never able to explain how they propose we fix the economy or the massive mental health crisis or the damage to the children and education that lockdown is doing...

@TheChip You genuinely think that that wouldn't be higher rates of infection, higher rates of hospitalisation and higher deaths if we didn't have lockdowns?

"wouldn't be much difference" - absolute rubbish.

@DameFanny

Go on then *@wanderings*, what do you think they should do instead?

We know lockdown is damaging - but unrestrained transmission would be worse. So what would you do to control transmission instead?

Go on then, DameFanny, what would you do to fix all the problems lockdown is creating?

"The NHS can't cope with Covid patients? Long term we also have to ask why someone with cancer who is say 40 year old should die waiting for treatment as a result while an 80 year old (who already had lived to the average life expectancy age) with Covid gets treated and spends week in hospitals"

We'll also be asking ourselves why a 40yo with cancer can't be treated because a 25yo with covid is taking up a hospital bed for weeks. And that the last place a cancer patient - or anyone with a weakened immune system - would want to be is around unrestrained covid transmission.

@TheOnlyLivingBoyInNewCross And how would any of these things be improved by a huge infection rate (even assuming your "vulnerable" can be totally shielded, which they can't) which would result in massive levels of hospitalisation and mass absence from the workplace - if 10s of millions got covid, then even if a comparatively small amount needed hospital, so we are back with healthcare overwhelmed.

"Go on then, DameFanny, what would you do to fix all the problems lockdown is creating"

Well, I'd start by sacking off this shit show corrupt and incompetent government. Then there'd be a windfall tax on all the companies who've increased their already massive profits over the last year.

I'd be getting a refund on at least some of the billions given to private companies for test and trace. And for PPE that either didn't materialise or wasn't fit for purpose.

Then I'd look properly at a Universal Basic Income - that would do wonders for a lot of mental health problems. And I'd be look at amenities building programmes, including housing. Again, direct impact on mental health outcomes.

And with money and somewhere to live, creatives would be able to start creating again.

But that's just me. What would you do?

@DameFanny

"Go on then, DameFanny, what would you do to fix all the problems lockdown is creating"

Well, I'd start by sacking off this shit show corrupt and incompetent government. Then there'd be a windfall tax on all the companies who've increased their already massive profits over the last year.

I'd be getting a refund on at least some of the billions given to private companies for test and trace. And for PPE that either didn't materialise or wasn't fit for purpose.

Then I'd look properly at a Universal Basic Income - that would do wonders for a lot of mental health problems. And I'd be look at amenities building programmes, including housing. Again, direct impact on mental health outcomes.

And with money and somewhere to live, creatives would be able to start creating again.

But that's just me. What would you do?

Cloud cuckoo land.