What do you think will happen after group 9 have been vaccinated?

[staceybeaker]

As in, who do you think will be next (sorry if this has been asked before)
ie by jobs or in age order or what

I think it has to be done by age. Anything else is just open to abuse and a logistical nightmare. And age is the biggest risk factor

This ^
Just keep going down the ages. Simple and quick

For the posters saying you cant send schools back till the teachers are vaccinated
So say, in group 10, which will be atleast 2-3 months , schools wont be going for atleast 6-7 months!
As with the gap in vaccines and all the time frame into consideration, it takes 4 months

And you do realise that there isnt any proof that you cant catch it and pass it on.
But will still need to isolate
So potentially parents / staff / children can still spread it all around

Being too granular (this subgroup versus that sub-subgroup versus this sub-sub-subgroup) is likely to slow down the rollout, especially since at every stage, vaccines get wasted. Move through the groups by age, QUICKLY. Once the oldest people are done, start offering vaccines late at night too. I can guarantee that people will turn out in PJs.

I suspect the rest of us are going to have to pay for the vaccine like we do for flu jabs if we want one.....

The roll out will slow right down when they start giving second doses in the numbers in which they have given first doses so it won't all be at the speed it's been going at so far. I think once they get all of the first 4 groups done they should do them all again before they move on to anyone else. There's a real risk of people being left very vulnerable by only having one dose.

@Adirondack

Given that there have been more hospitalisations in the 40-49 age group during this wave, and given the majority of parents of school age children are also in their 40s, I very much hope those in their 40s are vaccinated before orb at the same time as schools start reopening.

Hoping for this too. Would be very foolish to send schools back if this age group aren't vaccinated.

Some public facing keyworkers would be easier to vaccinate than others. School staff could be done on site and then it’s not open to abuse at all. I presume prison officers and police could be the same.

@PuzzledObserver

The “rest of the adult population” group is about 30 million people, and is likely to contain more refuseniks than groups 1-9. Take up might be 70-75%, so 21-23 million.

If supply permits, we can vaccinate 4 million a week - and by that stage, we should have plenty of vaccine doses available. So we could be through that group in 6 weeks (for the first dose). So is it really worth spending loads of effort and energy doing anything other than in order of age?

This

@NeverForgetYourDreams

I suspect the rest of us are going to have to pay for the vaccine like we do for flu jabs if we want one.....

I had though that but they have said they’re vaccinating all adults by autumn

@PuzzledObserver

The “rest of the adult population” group is about 30 million people, and is likely to contain more refuseniks than groups 1-9. Take up might be 70-75%, so 21-23 million.

If supply permits, we can vaccinate 4 million a week - and by that stage, we should have plenty of vaccine doses available. So we could be through that group in 6 weeks (for the first dose). So is it really worth spending loads of effort and energy doing anything other than in order of age?

Excellent point. You have completely changed my mind. Crack on down the age groups. It's a bit like means tested benefits. It takes a massive amount of admin to ensure no-one gets something they aren't entitled to. Much cheaper and quicker to make it universal.

@PuzzledObserver

The “rest of the adult population” group is about 30 million people, and is likely to contain more refuseniks than groups 1-9. Take up might be 70-75%, so 21-23 million.

If supply permits, we can vaccinate 4 million a week - and by that stage, we should have plenty of vaccine doses available. So we could be through that group in 6 weeks (for the first dose). So is it really worth spending loads of effort and energy doing anything other than in order of age?

It is looking as though the target of groups 1-4 (15m people) will be met around 15th Feb. Assuming vaccination capacity continues to increase and manages to reach 4 million vaccinations per week from late February, then by this time, the demand for second vaccinations will also be growing, so I would say that 2m first vaccinations and 2m second vaccinations each week would be a better estimate.

There are about 20m people in groups 5-9 so this will take 10 weeks taking us up to 16th April. Then, allowing for those already vaccinated and any refuseniks, there are approx 3m people left in each 5-year age band, so each will take 1.5 weeks. Everyone over 20 could be have received a first dose in the following 9 weeks, taking us up to the 28th June.

Another 500 variants will be found no doubt making the vaccines useless.

I think they will just go down in age, it makes the booking system easier.

The rest is very subjective, vaccinating keyworkers seems obvious, but then you are vaccinating a 20 year old shop worker who wears a mask and social distances versus a 40 year old SAHM who has three children in different schools, no masks no distancing and a husband who is a police officer.

It's too difficult to identify after the main priority groups, hopefully the continuing rollout will speed up and we will get through all these groups asap.

I’d hope next would be early years workers/teachers/supermarket staff/police/bus drivers etc and then continue down the age groups.

@SuperCaliFragalistic

The roll out will slow right down when they start giving second doses in the numbers in which they have given first doses so it won't all be at the speed it's been going at so far. I think once they get all of the first 4 groups done they should do them all again before they move on to anyone else. There's a real risk of people being left very vulnerable by only having one dose.

This is the part I can't work out.

The more millions they give first doses to the bigger the second dose bottle neck they create at the same time as the rest of the country is expecting to get their first dose.

I don't understand this plan.
.

Right tonight have news that the AZ vaccine definitely cuts transmission.

So I change my mind. They may now do public facing keyworkers first. To cut transmission.

I think the situation should be reassessed once the 9 priority groups have been vaccinated. Will it even be necessary to go below that?Healthy 40s and under are not very high risk - not sure where this notion is coming from. We have to accept some risk in life, surely.

I think the idea to vaccinate younger is because 45 to 50 still have a slightly raised risk. Then the infections issue. They want to greatly lower community infection. One to save the people that are medically unable to have the jab. Two to stop transmissions becoming so rife it mutation happens quicker than we can tweak the vaccine for groups 1 to 9.

It's not about individual risk but herd immunity at that point - as the new variants have already shown, the more the virus is allowed to circulate, the more it mutates and could end up becoming vaccine resistant.

The UK has ordered enough vaccines to vaccinate the population three times over so why would they stop at 40 and not cover such a large proportion of the working age population, many of whom are parents too? Especially if it won't be available privately it would be wrong to not let people have it.

I wonder why they haven’t considered doing those who suffer from obesity as a group? since it’s such a significant risk factor for severe disease.

I can’t decide whether Skyppy is being sarcastic or not
Means tested benefits get paid out for years and years. Worth the admin effort I’d say. We’re talking here about an initial rollout of a vaccine where time is of the essence. You can’t really compare the two.

Really hoping key workers with high or close contact with public come next.

As regards proving their eligible, I was given a link from work and had to provide my work badge or show my pay slip, alongside NHS card.

@Covidwedding123

I wonder why they haven’t considered doing those who suffer from obesity as a group? since it’s such a significant risk factor for severe disease.

............

They have, Group 6

Teens and 20s next.

They drive transmission, and transmission leads to hospitalisations and deaths.

(Which is why Test, Trace, and Isolate is such a vital part of the pandemic response and why, when you half-arse it, you get 100,000 covid deaths, 32,000 in January, and another 20,000 expected in February. Shit TTI = shit pandemic control. )

I am a teacher and today the LA sent out smart-survey form to schools for teachers to register interest in priority vaccination so that, in the event the gvt offers it, they already have the list of opt-ins to hit the ground running.