Social distancing to last all year

[Santastealer]

The media this morning are reporting on a report given to government saying social distancing will need to be in place all year and rules remain until December.

But what then? What do they expect to be different by September?

Last August I was able to go on holiday with my family as a group of 8, are thy suggesting this year this won’t be possible? If not why was it ok last year when we didn’t have vaccines but this year it’s not ok when we do?

I’m thoroughly fed up of not being able to see my family and I need to feel an end point is in sight.

This is making me feel panicky, I don’t care about holidays but need to see my Kate at and we live in different countries. 3-4 years is a long time to be barely seeing them, if at all, they’re in their 70’s

Some rules and some social distancing I am sure will have to remain until vaccination has extended to most of the world. I would not plan a foreign holiday for example. Face coverings in places such as doctors and hospitals no doubt. Large scale gatherings may be restricted in numbers (football, concerts for example).

Though as the last year has shown, SAGE will be ignored or not acted upon for a period of time.

Some of the comments on here are so bloody depressing. A combination of people declaring it will be like this for years to come as if they know this for a fact, and others pouring scorn on anyone who has the audacity to be struggling with this absolute shit show.

Yes, we need to keep the virus under control. Yes, we need to keep up certain measures and not unlock too quickly. But JFC, some people seem to positively revel in calling people who are struggling with the concept of another year ++ of this selfish, ignorant murderers who don’t deserve treatment if they get covid. People are allowed to be struggling with this without being denounced as pathetic.

I think there will be a degree of social distancing for a fair while yet, and international travel will depend on vaccination rates in those countries imo, but I do think things will start to creep back to more of a 'normalty' as the roll out takes effect. I wouldn't mind some aspects staying forever, I hate people being uneccessarily close when out and about, it's nice to have a bit of personal space, hah.

Experts believe the vaccines will only give 60% efficacy so why are we being told they give much higher efficacy? Who the heck is right? Maybe they will be 89% or more efficacious and we can get nearer to normal later in in the year?

You are conflating a few things. Efficacy against transmission, efficacy about contracting coronavirus and efficacy in protecting against harm.

@User133847

Thanks to people who didn't suck it up and stay home last year, the virus is beating us.

Eat Out to Help Out. Get Back to the Office. Get on a plane and go on holiday.

That messaging really helped.

None of those would have been an issue IF people had abided by the rules, i.e. social distancing, masks, etc. Unfortunately, far too many didn't and just threw caution to the wind.

Too many pubs/restaurants/cafes, didn't enforce the rules re numbers of people eating together, taking details for T&T, etc.

Too many people didn't quarantine on return from holiday when the rules changed re travel corridors etc.

@ineedaholidaynow but we need to balance potential health risks of DCs getting covid against physical and mental risks of not letting them play or play sports with their friends and not getting the natural exercise benefits from that.

@rosie1959

We are going to have to wait and see the effects of vaccination they dont know yet if vaccination prevents transmission. The point of vaccination is it stops the recipient becoming severely ill or ultimately death. The quicker they roll out vaccination and the bigger the uptake the better

Exactly this.

I think any trips abroad this summer would be irresponsible.
Trips within the UK possibly so, but it entirely depends upon how vaccinnation plays out - both in terms of successful implementation and then observing the effect. It will take a good few months.

The main thing is for the next School year to be OK and for us not to be in the same position next winter.

Absolutely @rookiemere. But there needs to be caution. Outside with no prolonged contact, fine. Going round to numerous family households, kissing and hugging, then crammed into poorly ventilated classrooms, probably not so good.

TrustTheGeneGenie

“Is it really that difficult to stay home with books, phone, internet, tv, yoga mat, perhaps a garden?”

Yes, it is. All I want is to see family. It's very hard to not see family for 2 years. It's bizarre to suggest otherwise.

Agree. CEV husband and CV son. We are extremely cautious and follow every rule (plus some of our own that aren’t even stipulated).
However, once we and wider family have all had our vaccinations, which at the current rate ought to be July, we will be seeing our daughter, SIL and grandchild. That’s it, no one else and we will follow every other rule, as will they.

@ineedaholidaynow

Absolutely *@rookiemere*. But there needs to be caution. Outside with no prolonged contact, fine. Going round to numerous family households, kissing and hugging, then crammed into poorly ventilated classrooms, probably not so good.

I don’t think you’re going to get much public buy-in for the idea that we should prevent children visiting family houses or kissing and hugging family, because there’s a risk that they might, possibly, face a slight statistical increase in their chance of developing Type 1 diabetes.

[quote DumplingsAndStew]@TrustTheGeneGenie

Currently you're allowed to meet one other adult outside

So how is that stopping you meeting a friend or family member?

Like I said, you might be restricted in being able to do exactly what you want, how you want to do it, but you just said yourself... you can meet outdoors with one other person.[/quote]
Are you kidding?

We haven't been able to see our relatives in months. Tier 3 (us) can't enter Wales, where both sets of parents live. (Nor could we even leave our area.)
Even if we could, we can't drive for 2 hours, sit outside for a chat, drive back all without using a toilet (can't go inside) and as a family of 5 can't see both parents as that's over rule of 6.

And yes, it's bloody hard.
'We' are already weary, beyond our limits, MH / non C19 issues in NHS
The thought of months more SD is appalling.
The thought of 'not knowing' if we have to for a while is awful too.
But that is the position we are in at present.

High rates of infection lead to high rates of hospitalisation resulting in a lockdown or restrictions.

Lockdown and restrictions lead to falling rates of infection and hospitalisation resulting in lifting of lockdown

Lifting of lockdown results in rising infection.

The cycle is obvious and the problem is that lifting of lockdowns have always ended in a new wave of higher infections and higher levels of hospitalisation. The phase in between just got shorter in the winter and allowed variants to develop.

Just as we upped our game with the vaccines, so did the virus.

We can hope for the best but need to be prepared for the worst. We need to be realistic about options and we must accept that the vaccine may not be able to suppress the virus on its own or in a matter of months. And right now we just don’t know if our efforts will pay off.

exactly @LemonTT

Not knowing yet is hard.
The Govt needs to have the guts to say clearly.
We will advise as and when we are confident that we can relax restriction.

I’m worried about the effect on children (although there is nothing to say that vaccination will not start for children at some point). However I just don’t think people will continue to comply fully after they’ve had the vaccination. Many of us didn’t see family last year, didn’t do everything we were ‘allowed’ to do. Even if people stick within rules I can’t see everyone continuing to go over and above

Infections dropped initially and then stabilised. They’ve been stable and still high for a week.

This is a much more infectious disease with a much less stricter lockdown. How are they going to bring the cases lower without extending or making lockdown tougher?

What makes you think cases will continue to be the marker for lockdowns once we see high levels of immunity in the vulnerable populations?

Well it’s either case numbers or hospitalisations. What other measure of infection are there?

Is it really that difficult to stay home with books, phone, internet, tv, yoga mat, perhaps a garden? It's not doing one of my children's mental health any good at all, lack of structure, routine, opportunities to socialize, it's a disaster actually. Perhaps if you have a companion/husband and are a fairly self-sufficient person it's fine, but for many, it's too isolating and too chaotic to live like this whilst trying to perform well at work and school. I'm normally an upbeat person and I've really struggled lately.

We have already decided as a family once restrictions lift, we are out of here. The teens are at incredibly low risk and I'm lowish risk although would qualify for a vaccine due to age. We are not scared of corona, we don't want it, would rather avoid it, but are more scared of living this half-life for prolonged periods. The main things for us are ability to travel out of our immediate area for walks/activities, eating out, being able to shop for the teens who like to socialize, and see family and friends, even with some social distancing to start with (e.g. in our gardens). Not having any of that is not a way of life, it's a temporary thing and I'll suck it up for now, but once my older relatives have been vaccinated, we are getting on out there. The vulnerable, old and those with health conditions who are most at risk will be protected, so why shouldn't we?

Early signs are that vaccination is having an effect on case numbers. Infections are still decreasing in many areas but some areas aren’t decreasing at all. That would indicate that it’s not just the virus but something about environmental conditions as well

Which report OP? Do you have a link or reference we can google please?

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow

Well it’s either case numbers or hospitalisations. What other measure of infection are there?

Well, yes, it will be hospitalisations. Hospitalisations that we will see far fewer of as the year progresses. They won't hit the lockdown button as cases rise without a worrying surge on hospital capacity.

@BungleandGeorge

Early signs are that vaccination is having an effect on case numbers. Infections are still decreasing in many areas but some areas aren’t decreasing at all. That would indicate that it’s not just the virus but something about environmental conditions as well

But what is happening to their fresh hospital admission rates?

Or rather, what will happen to them over the next few weeks?