Social distancing to last all year

[Santastealer]

The media this morning are reporting on a report given to government saying social distancing will need to be in place all year and rules remain until December.

But what then? What do they expect to be different by September?

Last August I was able to go on holiday with my family as a group of 8, are thy suggesting this year this won’t be possible? If not why was it ok last year when we didn’t have vaccines but this year it’s not ok when we do?

I’m thoroughly fed up of not being able to see my family and I need to feel an end point is in sight.

@userxx

I'm done now anyway. I obviously can't go anywhere that's not open but I'm not avoiding seeing friends any more.

I'm at this point to. The vaccinations are well under way for the higher risk groups, that's what we were waiting for wasn't it so the hospitals didn't get overwhelmed, that was the only reason for all of this. The virus is going nowhere, it's never been the intention to eradicate it so it's time to start living again.

Would you be willing to hang on for another couple of months? Say until the end of April? It’s just that they’re vaccinating all the ECV people now, and they get their second jabs in 11 weeks. By then their immunity will have kicked in.

No it won't. Because people have had enough of this. Once the vaccine roll out has reached the majority of the vulnerable and the elderly by Spring, things have to end.

Who says they ‘have to?’

I’ll be guided by government and science.

[quote DumplingsAndStew]@TrustTheGeneGenie

Currently you're allowed to meet one other adult outside

So how is that stopping you meeting a friend or family member?

Like I said, you might be restricted in being able to do exactly what you want, how you want to do it, but you just said yourself... you can meet outdoors with one other person.[/quote]
Right then, I'll go and hire a car, drive 6 hours to visit a relative, have an hour long walk, not go to the toilet because not allowed indoors, then drive 6 hours back home again.

So the kids still can't see their grandparents for the rest of the year. At all, ever, because we are a family of five. Even though GPS have all been vaccinated. Yeah, fuck that.

[quote AnxiousAlpaca]@PerveenMistry Spoken from a massive place of privilege.[/quote]
This.

Those in poor housing, in abusive relationships, who live alone, who struggle with their MH and many many more would find your 'it's easy to stay at home' nonsense deeply offensive.

I work in a hospital I saw cases drop considerably. I enjoyed my summer it was obvious it would come back so I did go on a U.K. break and out for odd meals! I still distanced and was still careful but there was plenty capacity in hospitals for sick people covid and non covid and isn’t that the point of lockdowns and restrictions?

I am for this lockdown cases were out of control and hospitals still overwhelmed and icu capacity has increased by ridiculous amounts. Lots of younger persons (20+) being treated who no may not die but may have long term issues.

However we can’t do this forever, and we need faith in the vaccines, restrictions will lessen but I do believe we may have masks in busy areas and things like the rule of 6 for a while. It’s not just about our country either, no good us all being vaccinated if the world isn’t. It’s a pandemic there’s lots of variables and what ifs. It’s not going to go back to complete normality with a click of fingers.

@DumplingsAndStew

All of this "not allowed to see friends and family for a year" is highly dramatic. Yes, there are some rules and restrictions, but there's nothing stopping you seeing friends and family.

People are talking about going on UK holidays with grandparents to allow their kids to actually see them. That was our plan for July. If current regulations remain in force that will not be possible. So what are you talking about??

Personally, I'm bracing myself for schools not going back this academic year, ditto uni.

I suspect the 3 month gap between Pfizer doses will prove to be a big mistake.

I know I'll be accused of doom-mongering, but what we're now doing plainly isn't working as cases rise and rise; however, we haven't got any alternative strategies,so SD, shut schools and shops- will have to continue.

@Miljea

Personally, I'm bracing myself for schools not going back this academic year, ditto uni.

I suspect the 3 month gap between Pfizer doses will prove to be a big mistake.

I know I'll be accused of doom-mongering, but what we're now doing plainly isn't working as cases rise and rise; however, we haven't got any alternative strategies,so SD, shut schools and shops- will have to continue.

Cases aren't rising though. They're falling. And there are early signs the vaccines are working. Schools will go back in a few weeks.

Oh, give over

The thing with sage and it’s sub groups however is that a. The government doesn’t always listen to it and b. It doesn’t take it into account the broader impacts of lockdown (economic etc) which is exactly what the government has to weigh up.

I am hoping things day to day will improve a lot this year but still think that full theatres/sports events and perhaps holidays abroad will be difficult for some time

what we're now doing plainly isn't working as cases rise and rise

They’re not rising and rising though? They’ve been dropping quite substantially since early January.

X-post
for miljea,

If course there will be social distancing and restrictions for a long time. Do you seriously think we will be back to how life was pre covid this year? No way. How can 1000s of teenagers be in close proximity like they were in say 2017 at a festival this summer or even autumn. It isn't going to happen. The only way we will go back to pre covid times is if/when the majority of the world has been successfully vaccinated and the vaccine works against all forms of covid. And our hospitals can cope. It will be fine for X amount of people to suffer or die with covid, so long as hospitals have capacity to deal with other non covid patients. There will also be an increase in illness and death from other, untreated illness such as cancer. The restrictions will take into account how well hospitals can predictably cope with all the aftermath of this.

Thanks to people who didn't suck it up and stay home last year, the virus is beating us.

Eat Out to Help Out. Get Back to the Office. Get on a plane and go on holiday.

That messaging really helped.

Is it really that difficult to stay home with books, phone, internet, tv, yoga mat, perhaps a garden?

No, I'm sure for middle-class people working from home with a secure income it's not that bad at all, apart from possibly the crushing loneliness.

For those in tiny flats, isolated, in abusive relationships, unable to pay their mortgages? Yes, it's really that difficult.

@Miljea

Personally, I'm bracing myself for schools not going back this academic year, ditto uni.

I suspect the 3 month gap between Pfizer doses will prove to be a big mistake.

I know I'll be accused of doom-mongering, but what we're now doing plainly isn't working as cases rise and rise; however, we haven't got any alternative strategies,so SD, shut schools and shops- will have to continue.

Cases are falling. At the start of the year there were around 60k a day, now it's closer to 20k.

It is what it is.I'll be seeing my DPs 3 weeks after they've had their second vaccine regardless of what's in place. I'd love to see our relatives in England but that's dependent on border controls.

I'm so fed up with the "All we have to do is stay home and watch Netflix how hard can it be crowd? ", who have moved on from the "It's only 3 weeks stay the F at home" crowd. DS 14 blossomed last term because he could play rugby and football with his mates. I'm struggling this time round with wfh. This is bloody hard for some of us, even those of us with gardens and wfh. Bloody harder I'll bet for those without those privileges.

I'll do what I'm told to do - mostly- but don't you dare tell me how easy it should be for me.

@Onlinedilema

If course there will be social distancing and restrictions for a long time. Do you seriously think we will be back to how life was pre covid this year? No way. How can 1000s of teenagers be in close proximity like they were in say 2017 at a festival this summer or even autumn. It isn't going to happen. The only way we will go back to pre covid times is if/when the majority of the world has been successfully vaccinated and the vaccine works against all forms of covid. And our hospitals can cope. It will be fine for X amount of people to suffer or die with covid, so long as hospitals have capacity to deal with other non covid patients. There will also be an increase in illness and death from other, untreated illness such as cancer. The restrictions will take into account how well hospitals can predictably cope with all the aftermath of this.

What exactly do you mean by social distancing? Just that big festivals won't be allowed? Or social distancing as in having to keep 2m away from anyone not in your household or bubble? So not able to sit next to, be indoors with, share a car with, have dinner with, hug friends and family you don't live with? I'd be sad about the former but can cope a while longer without concerts, but if the latter continues for the rest of this year, it will come close to breaking me.

@Beaniecats

Yep. SAGE will never be satisfied I can't see point of vaccinations if still have social distance, wear masks, endure restrictions I really can't

This. I’d take it with a pinch of salt, OP. Once the vulnerable are vaccinated and there isn’t a chance of the NHS being overwhelmed again then we will just need to get on with it. Perhaps masks will stay for a while, sanitising stations in supermarkets etc but not many people are going to pass up seeing their family for another year.

I don’t think there will be huge gatherings allowed for quite some time, but I do think restrictions will start to be lifted bit by bit.

So probably no arena tours but we’ll be able to to pubs and restaurants. Meet our family etc

Is it really that difficult to stay home with books, phone, internet, tv, yoga mat, perhaps a garden

A yoga mat. A fucking yoga mat. That sums it up really doesn't it. So what if its illegal to hug your mum, you've got a fucking yoga mat.

www.google.com/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/30/exclusive-social-distancing-may-have-remain-place-year/amp/

"Exclusive: Social distancing may have to remain in place all year.

Modelling suggests UK will suffer third huge spike in deaths unless vaccines cut Covid transmission significantly

Britain may not be able to abandon social distancing rules this year unless a vaccine proves to be 85 per cent effective at stopping transmission of coronavirus as well as severe illness, ministers have been warned.

Modelling commissioned by SPI-M, a subgroup of Sage, and passed to Downing Street suggests the UK will suffer a third huge spike in deaths unless inoculation cuts transmission significantly.

Currently, most experts think efficacy against transmission will be around 60 per cent but there is huge uncertainty.

The paper, produced by modellers at the University of Warwick, warns: "Only vaccines that offer high infection-blocking efficacy with high uptake in the general population allow relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions without a huge surge in deaths.

It makes for grim reading and goes some way to explaining why Boris Johnson has been so reluctant in recent weeks to raise expectations of an end to lockdown.

It is understood that SPI-M's other modelling groups – including Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine – have reached similar conclusions. "The exact numbers differ, but there is a high degree of consensus", a source told The Telegraph.

The paper finds that even in a best case scenario, in which vaccines stop 85 per cent of transmission in those vaccinated, lockdown would have to be kept in place until the end of May to prevent another significant spike in deaths.

If Mr Johnson lifted the measures in mid-February – when ministers forecast that the top four priority groups will be vaccinated – the modelling suggests a third surge in infections and deaths, of a scale similar to last spring, would follow in April.

If vaccines are 85 per cent transmission blocking, deaths would peak at just under 1,000 a day. At 60 per cent efficacy, daily deaths would approach 1,500."

If the modelling is accurate then all we can do is get vaccinated and hope for a very high uptake of vaccines to hope they will be 85% effective. Hope for a May relaxation of restrictions but plan for a great Christmas 2021 and hope it can take place. No-one wants this, no Govt wants this and they will only social-distancing restrictions if they are necessary.

Experts believe the vaccines will only give 60% efficacy so why are we being told they give much higher efficacy? Who the heck is right? Maybe they will be 89% or more efficacious and we can get nearer to normal later in in the year?

I haven't had a sustained conversation in real life with anyone for 4 weeks since, like many adults, I live alone, and the people I would normally socialise with don't live in my immediate vicinity. Even my social bubble is a 40 minute drive away, so we don't see each other that often. I can keep going like this for a while, but an end goal where we could get back to the freedoms of last summer is pretty important to me. I'd like to be able to hang out in a garden with a small group of friends, go and stay (cautiously) with other people, and perhaps go on holiday in the UK.

One thing we have to bear in mind that most under 16s aren’t going to be vaccinated. There are some vulnerable children health wise, also I assume we need to be wary that this virus doesn’t mutate to one that can be more problematic for young people. Also I am sure I have read that there had been an increase in Type 1 diabetes in young people as a virus can trigger that. So I assume we don’t want all young people to even a mild version of COVID if it can result in a massive spike of children getting diabetes.

So surely it makes sense to still be mindful for a while longer. We keep learning more about this virus every day.