Am I the only one who is thinking this?

[cinammonbuns]

This is coming from the other thread about the WHO saying countries who are ahead in their vaccine programme should help other countries after they have vaccinated their vulnerable.

Now there is a lot of outrage about this but is anyone else not seeing the bigger picture.

If we vaccinate all our citizens and let it run wild across the world, how long is it going to take for a statin resistant to the vaccines we have taken develop and we are in this awful cycle of lockdown and deaths all over again.

Is it only me that’s thinking this.

Yes if we vaccinate all our citizens perhaps we can all go to the park and pub over the summer but unless I am missing something it seems almost certain a new staton would develop and we would be back in lockdown by the end of the year.

And obviously this could be avoided if we closed the borders which I am all for but the government refuses to.

No it could happen. My concern would be we damage ourselves to give away vaccines and:

• end up locked down for longer
• those vulnerable under 50 are left hanging
• ineffective vaccine in other countries makes the whole thing pointless. Bangladesh for example, do you really think those vaccines will go to the vulnerable. I have family there. They won’t.

You know we could vaccinate the whole of the UK, close the borders, and still have a new strain emerge here, right?

@lughnasadh you are right so this vaccinating everyone on the U.K. idea is seeming less and less attractive.

Well it’s complicated because whilst we are well ahead of average in our vaccination programme, we also have extremely high infection rates. It’s the high prevalence that is associated with variants emerging (Kent, Brazil, SA) so I think we are justified in continuing to focus on this country whilst rates are so high. But yes it need to be a more global approach to avoid a never ending pandemic of mutant strains.

@Theowawaynow I also have family in a developing country and I absolutely know the vaccines will not go to the most vulnerable there. Instead it will be the richest. But even looking from a ‘selfish’ U.K. perspective that would be beneficial for us as those wealthy are the most likely to travel and so them being vaccinated is good for other countries.

I just think lockdowns will be prolonged with this strategy, even more than if we give some vaccines to other countries.

@UmbilicusProfundus I agree definitely I am not saying we should stop vaccinating now. My belief is that after over 50’s and those who are CV then we should start diverting some vaccines abroad as those most likely to be seriously ill will have been vaccinated but also the global population needs to start being vaccinated so mutations are less frequent. I don’t think focusing on vaccinating the whole of the U.K. is the right approach.

Also I’m not just talking about the U.K. but Israel and others who are ahead in their vaccination programmes.

With my limited knowledge of variants, mutations and this virus I agree with WHO and their advice that a global approach and response is essential. Unless of course the UK is planning on pulling up the drawbridge and marooning ourselves for the next 5 years or more?

I would happily sacrifice my vaccine for someone vulnerable elsewhere and I understand what’s being said about mutations. However if everywhere in the world only vaccinated its vulnerable and the virus continued among the younger population would that mean a new strain could arise in the younger population of a country?

Also it will never happen because a) many of our hospitalisations are in people outside of the top priority groups and b) can you imagine the headlines when people in this country died of covid after we decided not to vaccinate them and give some of our supply away? That latter scenario is insular ( a life here is no more valuable of course) but I’m being realistic about the government’s approach.

No we wont be doing that.
As we arent preventing spread in younger people so will be making our own new mutants anyway
Not really a way to treat all the key workers.
Not fair on everyone here who gets it multiple times.
We've ordered the vax and we will use. Or we will all be paying the nhs and benefits of lots of previously healthy people. In addition to the costs of lockdown.
Anyway its the tories they wont ruin our economy more

@HSHorror

No we wont be doing that. As we arent preventing spread in younger people so will be making our own new mutants anyway Not really a way to treat all the key workers. Not fair on everyone here who gets it multiple times. We've ordered the vax and we will use. Or we will all be paying the nhs and benefits of lots of previously healthy people. In addition to the costs of lockdown. Anyway its the tories they wont ruin our economy more

I agree we’ve locked down and existed without properly living for coming up to a year now. To ask this with the end goal of a vaccine to then turn round and say anyone not ECV and under 50 can now take their chances is not going to happen. With all the recent reports of healthy 30/40 year old that’s that are now reported to be taking up ICU beds I don’t think the government is justified in not offering the vaccine to all that want it in the UK.

@Fridget

I would happily sacrifice my vaccine for someone vulnerable elsewhere and I understand what’s being said about mutations. However if everywhere in the world only vaccinated its vulnerable and the virus continued among the younger population would that mean a new strain could arise in the younger population of a country?

Also it will never happen because a) many of our hospitalisations are in people outside of the top priority groups and b) can you imagine the headlines when people in this country died of covid after we decided not to vaccinate them and give some of our supply away? That latter scenario is insular ( a life here is no more valuable of course) but I’m being realistic about the government’s approach.

I wouldn't for 2 reasons Healthy people are dying I have children

Call me selfish but if the boot was on the other foot

After uk then I would prefer it to go to poorer countries not the eu

@Fridget no the majority of hospitalisations are still in priority groups. And I believe that many under 50 who are in hospital are overweight or obese (no judgement!) and therefore they also should be vaccinated to reduce their hospitalisation rate.

@HSHorror @Blue1316 I am not asking whether it will happen, I am asking whether it should happen considering the government will do anything to help the economy except close the bloody borders which means even after we are all vaccinated we will be in constant fear of mutant strains from other countries.

@Spiratedaway but are you not considering the possibility you are vaccinated and then a new mutant strain resistant to vaccines starts spreading?

[quote cinammonbuns]@Spiratedaway but are you not considering the possibility you are vaccinated and then a new mutant strain resistant to vaccines starts spreading?[/quote]
No I am not but close the borders happy to stay nz style for a while

@Spiratedaway I would be happy to do that too but the government have not closed the boarders when we were on almost 2,000 deaths a day so I hold no hope for them doing it in the future.

I think there is a high possibility of another vaccination campaign in the autumn, in tandem with the flu jab. We don't know how long the antibodies in the current vaccines will remain active, would be a chance to offer a 'tweaked' vaccine to cope with known mutations.

are you not considering the possibility you are vaccinated and then a new mutant strain resistant to vaccines starts spreading?
It’s still the same virus. The vaccine might be less effective against a new strain but it’s unlikely to be completely ineffective, you would still have some protection. If there’s a new strain (which there will be) then they’ll just develop a booster, which is actually a fairly quick process. Then if you’ve been vaccinated already you just get the booster.

The other issue is that new strains are more likely to appear in vulnerable people, and sending our vaccines abroad won’t get them into the arms of those people. They’ll end up in the arms of the wealthy, which helps nobody.

even after we are all vaccinated we will be in constant fear of mutant strains from other countries
We don’t need to keep a mutant strain out forever. Just long enough to figure out if it’s vaccine-resistant and roll out a booster shot if it isn’t.

@Glenchase I know about the booster process but this does not happen instantaneously, people would still die and we would still have lockdowns whole they are being made. That is the issues I think so many have the misguided view that we will get back to normal if we vaccinate all adults but that does not seem to be the case.

I mean it’s been a month and only 13% have been vaccinated so how many months would it take for everyone to get a booster, I think we should be looking to stop mutant strains altogether not just making a booster when we inevitably get one.

To stop mutant strains we’d have to eradicate the virus from the face of the earth, which is virtually impossible. There will be new strains. Those who’ve been vaccinated will probably have partial protection against those new strains. Then they’ll roll out a booster. The news was talking about delivering vaccines via a stick-on patch in future, or even via a pill, which would be much faster.

You're not the only one thinking this. We need to come together and vaccinate everyone. And then come together again and deal with global warming...

The UK and I think the USA have put a significant amount of money towards supplying vaccines to the developing world. I headed if all countries put in similar amounts of money the whole project would be funded, it as usual this isn't happening in other developed countries. I think UNICEF are running it?

Sorry for being vague but I wasn't really paying much attention to the new story.

For precisely the reason you noted, because new strains will develop in developing g unvaccinated countries