If we had still been part of Europe we would have been fucked in terms of getting vaccine supply. This is a huge advertisement for brexit and likely other countries will now bay to get out. And the eu will know it.
They now have to pay billions more because we aren’t, and now their economies continue under threat because they can’t get vaccine supply. It’s a massive negative to be part of the eu.
Thats not far wrong. However i do think there would be a different argument going on.
I do think that the UK would have acted alone to order vaccine anyway simply because we were doing the research and there was already awareness of how much lockdown was costing the country. And that the crisis was going to last a long time. By July it was already very apparent the UK were having more problems than anywhere else in the EU. A slow moving EU wouldn't have been good enough and a row would have broken out with the UK just getting on with it because we could and because thats always been our mentality.
We would then be having a massive argument about whether the UK was being fair by hogging all the EU’s vaccine due to a failure by the EU and it would reignite the sores of the referendum and Nigel would very much be front and centre making a fuss. We almost certainly would have unilaterally approved vaccines earlier than others as the research side of things would have been at a similar point. Our internal forces would have dictated early approval in exactly the same way and they have always been stronger than ties to the EU.
The UK has been more nationalist than other EU countries in a number of ways. The concept of 'our' vaccine would still be there and the concept of not wanting to give it to the EU would be there. The whole referedum was based on our island psyche.
Im not convinced the crisis we have is an advert for Brexit in quite the way you think though. I don't think anyone (bar Hungary) will consider outright leaving because of this alone (and even Hungarys issues are long standing and to do with historic issues over thr Russia sphere of influence). But it certainly a threat to the running of the commission. And its more of an issue for domestic party politics across Europe. We have many leaders struggling for public support. Macron most notably has an election to think of next year and the polls are not as favorable as hed like. And thats more why countries are going nuts because its damaging their reelection chances. It is leading to rises in conspiracy theory nonsense too as disgruntled voters feel alienated from politicians. Its a climate of general uneasy unrest. For example you are unlikely to see the Netherlands seriously contemplating leaving the EU but you are likely to unrest. Same for Belgium. That unrest threatens the power of the commission itself with the liklihood of the commission getting a big (much needed) restructuring on the cards. This may well weaken the ambition of the commission for greater cooperation. It may weaken support for Free Movement. Especially if we see a Le Pen government for example.
But i dont think it would destroy the EU. More bring about some of the changes that the UK has rallied for, for years. Ironically.
I think the thing for me is those people shocked at the EU acting in a protectionist way right now. The EU itself has always been protectionist. Thats the point of it!
There is no other issue atm more important than covid in Europe. Everyone wants vaccine and they want it yesterday. And there isn't enough even if you included the uk supplies. Every single government is going to push as hard as possible to get it. No one is going to play the gentlemen going 'you first'. No one can afford to. An 'at all costs' mentality is one that always undermines cooperation in any situation. It will mean that what is written in law is ignored by politicians. Thats always bad.
There are long term ramifications for this. Hungary being pushed closer to Russia is the one I'm most aware of.
My feeling is that a wave of politics that exploit inequality is more likely through Europe. I am not convinced that it has seen off what has happened in the UK and the US with disinformation and threats to democracy fully. But i remain to be convinced it will yet led to the break up of the EU in the way Brits think because relationships within the EU due to land borders are different. But i do think a wave of nationalism and racism within the EU more possible. And i do think unity within the eu will be tested with several new blocks of competing power arising is possible. The centrist balance of power with strongly aligned mutual interest might fracture. That would produce difficulty that would last for years. Basically a break out of the culture war which has plagued US and UK politics with a huge divide in consensus is more likely. That overall weakens the EU.
But i stress here thats not necessarily in the UK's favour. A weakening means things could go our way. But they also could make things even more difficult too as we are blamed by some for the crisis rather than looking towards the internal sources of cock up. Particularly if there is a trade war. We are already in a weak position.
A trade war is not good for the EU. Its not good for the UK. A trade war will intensify any existing fractures and internal conflict and weaken positions further as it will hamper everyones ability to produce vaccine and delay an already struggling vaccination system rather than solving the problem.
The main beneficiaries of an EU / Uk trade war are China and Russia. Its not terribly good for the US though there may be some. Its not helpful to world stability at a time the US is struggling on that front.
Focusing efforts on a trade war rather than having a big conference to see what more can be done everywhere to scale things up more quickly and bridge the gap between high demand and steady high production capacity is whats really needed. How did the uk government overcome problems? What lessons do we need to learn and put in immediately? Is there more capacity that can be found in the EU and UK? Etc etc.
I have thought for a long time that the referedum highlighted how few people understood how either the uk or EU functioned. Nor how politics and law interact and definitely a problem with understanding the issue of trade, supply chains and logistics. How international cooperation was central to political stability.
But that existed in both leavers and remainers and is yet to be resolved as far as i see it. Tribalism over examining the nature of a problem isn't going away any time soon.
Most ironically for me the issue of the Irish border has always been central to the referedum question. Its not lost on me how its been an issue for 4 years and an article written to protect both Ireland and Ni has been a massive problem since the 1st January settlement was used in a way which could have deeply damaged both.
Also... It might be wise for those in the UK to be fully aware that the Deal with the EU is NOT final. It yet to be ratified. At the moment it is being applied provisionally. We are still at risk of a No Deal scenario...