Why do you think Germany has had nearly 40,000 Covid deaths in only 7 weeks?

[waltzingparrot]

When I looked in the first week of December, that'd had 17,000 deaths. Just looked at worldometer stats now and they're over 55,000. That's nearly 40k in 7 weeks

We're constantly told they have one of the best track and trace systems in Europe and a properly funded health service. Do these figures suggest that these two things aren't as relevant as we thought?

No. It shows that track and trace doesnt help when the numbers of infected people in the population gets too high - which is exactly what the German government have been warning for months. And you cant seriously believe that having a properly funded and functioning healthcare system makes no difference ? My mum's friend had cataract surgery in Dec and has just gone into hospital for a knee replacement (Germany). Meanwhile here (UK) my MiL has been waiting for a hip replacement for 12 months now and is likely to wait at least another 6.

Because many of their very elderly/vulnerable didn't get it in the first wave. Now it is winter when things are always worse anyway because of the short daylight, cold and damp, and there was less immunity in the population.

That will be a reason surely?

@Porcupineintherough

No. It shows that track and trace doesnt help when the numbers of infected people in the population gets too high - which is exactly what the German government have been warning for months. And you cant seriously believe that having a properly funded and functioning healthcare system makes no difference ? My mum's friend had cataract surgery in Dec and has just gone into hospital for a knee replacement (Germany). Meanwhile here (UK) my MiL has been waiting for a hip replacement for 12 months now and is likely to wait at least another 6.

I was suggesting that a well funded healthcare system doesn't necessarily prevent a huge surge in deaths.

Well no, because once people actually have COVID COVID there's a limit to what can be done for them. There's no sure fire cure.

Is it perhaps because they now have the super infectious variant?

Because they now have the “Kent” strain running rife, which is 30% more deadly.

I think they didn’t suffer as much in the first wave and it was definitely more prevalent amongst the younger population. I’m guessing it’s hit the older population harder this wave.

Yes track and trace only works when numbers are low.

30% more deadly? Is it?

@MyHeartIsNeverOnTime

Because they now have the “Kent” strain running rife, which is 30% more deadly.

Source please.

@Delatron

30% more deadly? Is it?

According to NERVTAG, yes:

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/955239/NERVTAG_paper_on_variant_of_concern__VOC__B.1.1.7.pdf

Remember that 30% more deadly can mean something like instead of 10 per 10000 people dying, it's 13 per 10000 (or whatever the actual rate is) - i.e., you can't judge how bad or not it is without a sense of the absolute death rates.

And the government was very unsure about those figures when they announced them last week, and many scientists cautioned the use of statistics like the percent more deadly, because it is so meaningless without the actual rates. (something that happens 1 in a million times, which then doubles to 2 in a million, has a increase of 50%, which might sound terrifying if you were talking about a 50% increase in fatalities, but really isn't terrifying when you look at actual figures!)

This seems to happen a lot - a country looks like they're doing well for a long time, and then suddenly they're not. Same thing in Portugal at the moment, where it's got very bad for no obvious reason. It's strange.

1 in a million to 2 in a million is a 100% increase - a 50% increase would be from 1 to 1.5/million

And what seems to be happening in Germany is that it's hit the east (with an older population) much more than in the first wave, who may have been less cautious in the autumn and winter because the rates there in the first wave were so low.

sorry, yes I mean a 100% increase, was typing faster than my brain!!

@HalfPastThree

This seems to happen a lot - a country looks like they're doing well for a long time, and then suddenly they're not. Same thing in Portugal at the moment, where it's got very bad for no obvious reason. It's strange.

Yes, it's almost as though the virus will do its thing whatever we do. Winter is always worse for viruses than spring, and they always kill a certain number of the elderly/frail.

And back in the spring a lot of the sufferers were younger people who had been skiing, or been in contact with those who had. Apparently.

Possibly a new mutation? Whatever the reason that is a shocking amount of deaths in such a short space of time

@HalfPastThree

This seems to happen a lot - a country looks like they're doing well for a long time, and then suddenly they're not. Same thing in Portugal at the moment, where it's got very bad for no obvious reason. It's strange.

Yes - this is also happening at the county level in the UK

People in Saxony, the state hardest hit in this wave, are also less likely to be able to work from home (fewer office jobs) and there's a lot of cross-border mobility with the Czech Republic, which also had a surge after low numbers the first time round and potential complacency as a result.

@MyHeartIsNeverOnTime, I can’t see the part where that report says this variant is 30% more deadly, my eyesight is poor though 😁

Track and trace works well for low case numbers but beyond a certain size it just isn’t up to the task. Germany did pretty well the first time around, but once case numbers had got away from them this time they were left with the same crude lockdown tools as the rest of Europe.

And they’ve got an elderly population with unfortunate levels of obesity like the rest of us.

Of course it helps to have a really well funded health system like they do, but it’s not a magic bullet, as I’ve been saying for months to the occasional idiot who says “if the Tories had funded the NHS properly we wouldn’t have had to lock down to protect it”.

And actually a more or less monolithic state system like the NHS does have some advantages when it comes to capturing data and researching best practices.

[quote Fembot123]@MyHeartIsNeverOnTime, I can’t see the part where that report says this variant is 30% more deadly, my eyesight is poor though 😁[/quote]
There are four studies with different hazard ratios, 1.29 (The Imperial study) is the lowest, and as I understand it means there is a 29% increased chance of death. The Exeter one is quite frightening at 91%.

For a simpler summary, it was in the news last week:

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/22/new-uk-covid-variant-may-be-more-deadly-says-boris-johnson

Sorry I thought you’d seen something that says it is 30% more deadly not it may be 30% more deadly.

@Fembot123

Sorry I thought you’d seen something that says it is 30% more deadly not it may be 30% more deadly.

Well I’m sure you know better than the boffins at Imperial, Uni of Exeter and at the PHE.

The history of national socialism and the DDR also loom large and many people put a lot of emphasis on privacy and freedom, eg demonstrations and religious services have kept going throughout corona because they're constitutionally guaranteed. Restrictions on private gatherings and instructions to work from home are also just advisory, and when cafes etc were still open, lots of people gave false information. Everyone is obliged to register with the local government whenever they move house, but the register can't be used for allocating corona vaccines. The basic terms of rules are agreed between state leaders and the federal government, but there's lots of variation in implementation - as well as testing availability. The "Querdenker" movement holds regular protests against lockdown, especially in Berlin. And so on and so forth... so well-funded t&t/healthcare can only go so far, and it's not yet clear if the winter surge can be attributed to a virus mutation, to behavioural or demographic factors, or to both.

@MyHeartIsNeverOnTime, clearly I haven’t said that, I’m asking you to show me where it says this variant IS 30% more deadly like you said, I haven’t argued about it or said it’s not true. God forbid you back up what you are saying on a public forum.