100k deaths. Surely BJ will have to go? And who will take his place?

[Frodont]

I'm not sure how he can stay after our shameful death toll. Yes, the vaccination seems to be going well, and yes, there may be extenuating circumstances explaining part of the death toll, but it's a grim figure.

And who do we think would replace him? Raab? Gove?

This is a click bait though and from them too to keep us compliant. I am no covid denier but try best I can to follow the ONS statistics. Currently they show 529k deaths for 2020 compared to 532k for 2019. With more to be added sure but the excess total I believe is going to be around 6k. So in total 6k more than 2019. It's hard when I read that to understand that if those 100k deaths would not have happened does that mean we would have had 100k less deaths this year. I get this amount is with the measures taken but still it doesn't seem to me the harrowing picture they are painting.

He won't go (yet).
Raab would certainly be easier on the eye!

He won’t resign, and no-one is going to force him out. Would you want to take over at the moment? It’s more likely to happen when things are resolved (to the extent they can be) and in anticipation of the election. The Boris Johnson election gold dust is somewhat tarnished.

Yes, it's been badly mishandled, and yes, Boris has made it a shitshow... But I cannot see how it's going to be any better with any of the rest of the current front bench crew in charge. Dominic 'nowhere to be seen' Raab? Rishi 'eat out to help out' Sunak?

It is also important, I think, to reflect that in the winter of 2017/18 there were over 50,000 excess deaths from flu, despite a vaccine, and there was minimal political price to pay and the Tories (and many voters!) didn't see that this reflected a need to invest in the NHS or take health measures. I wonder if from their perspective, 100,000 in the face of a novel virus and global pandemic may be pretty acceptable, actually, even if they're not going to shout it from the rooftops.

Personally wouldn't hold my breath.

Raab is quietly preparing behind the scenes. Hunt would also like another run at it. But Raab will get the nod. This is why Raab has been relatively kept away from briefings, interviews etc. To avoid tarnishing him.

Rishi is no longer seen as the golden boy. One person to keep a very close eye on is Sajid Javid.

Boris will step down but not yet. He will cite health and family reasons. Gove will step in as acting PM but not run in a leadership contest.

I think he’s done an ok job

Can’t see anyone else would have done better

Our death rate will eventually be adjusted and it’s important to note all countries record deaths differently

We may not be as bad by comparison if all applied same criteria
Whils some deaths have been unpredicted, some of those who died would have died in the next 12 months anyway whether covid or something else

Not a fan but surely the last thing we need now is a change of PM and the ensuing reshuffle where newbies have to learn the ropes of their new ministry?

It's awful. No one died in the other countries not run by Boris Johnson. Just here.

@tootiredtospeak Would you add a link to.that ONS data, please?

@tootiredtospeak

This is a click bait though and from them too to keep us compliant. I am no covid denier but try best I can to follow the ONS statistics. Currently they show 529k deaths for 2020 compared to 532k for 2019. With more to be added sure but the excess total I believe is going to be around 6k. So in total 6k more than 2019. It's hard when I read that to understand that if those 100k deaths would not have happened does that mean we would have had 100k less deaths this year. I get this amount is with the measures taken but still it doesn't seem to me the harrowing picture they are painting.

This anomaly (or what at first sight appears to be an anomaly) is because a significant number of the people who have died of Covid over the last year, would very sadly have died of something else anyway. It would just have been a fall, or a urine infection, or flu that finished them off rather than Covid. This is because Coronavirus overwhelmingly targets the elderly/very vulnerable, that unfortunately didn't have long left anyway (I realise there are exceptions).

So no, we wouldn't have had 100k less deaths if it wasn't for Covid.

@tootiredtospeak

This is a click bait though and from them too to keep us compliant. I am no covid denier but try best I can to follow the ONS statistics. Currently they show 529k deaths for 2020 compared to 532k for 2019. With more to be added sure but the excess total I believe is going to be around 6k. So in total 6k more than 2019. It's hard when I read that to understand that if those 100k deaths would not have happened does that mean we would have had 100k less deaths this year. I get this amount is with the measures taken but still it doesn't seem to me the harrowing picture they are painting.

Using the most up-to-date data we have available, the number of deaths up to 1 January 2021 was 614,096, which is 75,013 more than the five-year average. Of the deaths registered by 1 January 2021, 81,669 mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate. This is 13.3% of all deaths in England and Wales

ONS.

in the winter of 2017/18 there were over 50,000 excess deaths from flu, despite a vaccine, and there was minimal political price to pay and the Tories
I had no idea about this because prior to covid I paid very little attention to flu, the fact that you could die of it was not really on my radar, I'm inclined to think that the Tories, having swept 50000 excess deaths under the carpet felt they could easily do the same with covid deaths?

Noel Edmonds. I'm with the MRLP on this one.

@Pastanred

I think he’s done an ok job

Can’t see anyone else would have done better

Our death rate will eventually be adjusted and it’s important to note all countries record deaths differently

We may not be as bad by comparison if all applied same criteria
Whils some deaths have been unpredicted, some of those who died would have died in the next 12 months anyway whether covid or something else

Totally agree with this ... arnt other countries having problems ? And also we are one of the only countries that count all settings .. to be honest I don't think anyone would have done a better job .. the scientists have been guiding Boris

Maybe the real problem is that we have so many very old very frail people, coupled with high numbers of not so old people whose health is very precarious
Maybe the problem is that so many of us are are living on the edge healthwise, we are easy kindling for any fire that happens to rock up

@JovialNickname @tootiredtospeak this is not about people dying who would have done otherwise (though I do agree that in coming years we will maybe see slightly lower death rates, as many of those who died had life expectancies in years not decades).

As well as the ONS, the FT has a good series that is free to read where they track excess deaths around the world.

www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

@Spiratedaway if you go to the ft link above, you will see comparisons with other countries on an excess deaths basis, so not counting who has 'covid' on their death certificate, just looking at how many deaths there have been Vs the 5 year average. It shows it in % terms as well as total numbers, the UK is not the worst but is very bad (worse on a % base than the US and many others).

But comparisons with a flu epidemic aren't like for like. Even with the bad year, the NHS didn't get over run like it did with corona - corona being a novel virus was much more of a threat.

• we have had this number of deaths despite there being suppression methods in place - the hospitalisation stats and death rates could/would have been much higher.

What number of deaths do we deem acceptable? have we really become so blase that we ate discussing the difference between 50,000 deaths and 100,000 deaths (and rising) as something we should just suck up? (Not even taking into consideration the emotional impact on all the extra thousands of hospital admissions that don't lead to death.)

@Yohoheaveho

Maybe the real problem is that we have so many very old very frail people, coupled with high numbers of not so old people whose health is very precarious Maybe the problem is that so many of us are are living on the edge healthwise, we are easy kindling for any fire that happens to rock up

Pretty much this although it is of course deeply rooted in inequality. There was a doctor on BBC yesterday talking about just this, but also saying we are a rich country but the wealth is very much concentrated among a few - with a large section of society forgotten and left behind.

Covid has disproportionally affected people who were already struggling.

It's not 100k deaths from covid. If you die of anything it's put down as Covid. Look at other countries death rates and your see it is 99 % survival rate. Too many lies told! The statistics are false.

we are a rich country but the wealth is very much concentrated among a few - with a large section of society forgotten and left behind
Atomt, I agree inequality is the driver, furthermore a country with severe inequality ought not to be able to call itself 'rich'.
Wealth inequitably distributed impoverishes all of us, the fruits of human achievement ought not to be hoarded by the few, they should be enjoyed by the many

@nicky7654

It's not 100k deaths from covid. If you die of anything it's put down as Covid. Look at other countries death rates and your see it is 99 % survival rate. Too many lies told! The statistics are false.

That's not correct. Measures of 'excess deaths' aren't looking at what it says on the death certificate, they're looking at the deaths above the 5 year average, on the basis that few other variables have changed so most will be from covid. Some will also be from the consequences of an overwhelmed health service and need for lockdown - e.g. people who weren't able to get an ambulance in time after their heart attack.

The FT link shows numbers around the world, looking at excess deaths and not 'covid deaths' to avoid the issue of countries defining them differently.

www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

@nicky7654

It's not 100k deaths from covid. If you die of anything it's put down as Covid. Look at other countries death rates and your see it is 99 % survival rate. Too many lies told! The statistics are false.

Thats not true. You have to have tested positive to COVID in the month preceding your death and for the death to have been a complication of that. It takes two consultants to agree the reason for death on the death certificate. So if you died in a car accident, whether you had tested positive to COVID or not, the diagnosis would not be coded as " died from COVID". Likewise, if a frail person died of pneumonia but tested negative to covid, the death would be recorded as "Pneumonia" or complications arising from that. The reason for death on a death certificate is important for gathering reliable and robust ONS data

@tootiredtospeak

This is a click bait though and from them too to keep us compliant. I am no covid denier but try best I can to follow the ONS statistics. Currently they show 529k deaths for 2020 compared to 532k for 2019. With more to be added sure but the excess total I believe is going to be around 6k. So in total 6k more than 2019. It's hard when I read that to understand that if those 100k deaths would not have happened does that mean we would have had 100k less deaths this year. I get this amount is with the measures taken but still it doesn't seem to me the harrowing picture they are painting.

That’s simply because we’ve forced influenza infections to zero, and many other communicable diseases.

Jeremy Hunt is obviously laying the groundwork for a leadership campaign.

I don't think anyone will try to get Boris out until the worst is over, let him take the fall for it all and then 'start afresh' when things look brighter.