100k deaths (for any reason within 28 days of a positive Covid test)

[Snowrabbit]

Lots of talk about why the UK has the highest death rate and has now reached an appalling 100k Covid deaths. Except it's not 100k Covid deaths - it's 100k deaths FOR ANY REASON within 28 days of a positive Covid death. Doesn't make the deaths less / more tragic but it's worth thinking about international comparisons. How many countries are putting down, for example, a cancer death, where the patient incidentally had a positive Covid test several weeks before, as a Covid death. I bet not many. No way counties are reporting in even remotely the same ways. The way we are counting means death which aren't even remotely related to Covid are down as Covid deaths and therefore the focus on the 100k is irrelevant. The true answer will lie more in excess deaths - is this information available for different countries in English somewhere? I think constantly going on about 100,000 deaths isn't helpful. This isn't an effort in minimising but taking a realistic view on how badly the UK is really doing. I don't believe it's as bad comparatively . Not for nationalistic reasons - just because the data makes no sense until all deaths are compiled using the same methods.

I totally and utterly agree. I just don’t understand why it’s reported like this - no other diseases are.

Perhaps you'd prefer deaths with covid as a contributory factor in the death certificate? Or excess deaths? Both are higher than our current measure.

From another thread:
https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1354140704180736002

Excess deaths are over 100,000 -www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/5f7b58fb-97ad-4fef-bbc9-b71d328c6700

@titchy I'd prefer international comparisons to be accurate. What is the figure for Covid as a contributory factor on death certificate ? I would be interested to know. Excess deaths aren't all Covid - have you read how much attendance at A&E with heart attack/ stroke symptoms has gone down. Or the dramatic reduction in cancer referrals. Or the increase in suicides. There is no clear answer. I'd be interested to compare excess deaths across counties as all counties will face similar issues here. But excess deaths don't speak to Covid.

Remember many covid deaths are taking place after 28 days. So if anything this is likely to be something of an underestimate.

Also, it isn't an exact science, which contributory cause resulted in a death. It is complex, just as life is complex. Not because doctors aren't deciding properly, just because it is complex and the causes can be interwoven.

Not this again. The ONS reports deaths with covid on death certificates - ie as cause - and those numbers are now well over 100K.

I do think the BBC should actually tell people this rather than keep saying that 'any reason' thing, but the fact is that measure is used in order to get the nearest approximation on that day, and is balanced by those who die after 28 days. The ONS stats though are reliable and tell us the actual picture.

Please read this article - it explains it really well.

www.covidfaq.co/Claim-People-are-dying-with-Covid-but-not-of-Covid-e9d5af56419a438bb626bb08271b3b69

@herecomesthesun I'm not suggesting doctors are not deciding properly. This is a data and statistic issue as some of the 100k won't have Covid on their death certificate. They just had a positive test which didn't contribute at all to their death. Yes there will be deaths more than 28 days later but my main point is that if other countries are not counting in the same way (& I bet they won't be) saying the UK is dealing with Covid any worse than anyone else is pointless. Many patients are routinely tested for Covid in hospital and can be positive, even if asymptomatic. They them die of something else but are included in the 100k figure as they had a positive test. I don't believe for a minute Spain, Italy etc are counting in that way. There is so much anger about how comparatively badly the UK is doing but the comparison just isn't true if we don't all measure things in the same way.

@Madhairday my issue is how other countries are counting and reporting. Not in the same way. So the international comparisons are worthless.

They are deaths where COVID has directly caused or was a significant factor hastening death and COVID infection is therefore on the death certificate.
The mythical "ran over by a bus" would not have COVID on the death certificate and would not be recorded in the statistics.

I would also point out that Covid has pushed flu/other respiratory causes out as the secondary cause on thousands and thousands of death certificates. That's not controversial - it's a fact and not a mad conspiracy theory. Flu numbers and other respiratory deaths are massively down. So the ONS stats don't paint a full picture as many of these very ill people would have died with a different respiratory illness if flu etc were still as prevalent as in other years. It doesn't mean these are all extra deaths of people who would be here if not for Covid. I'm NOT minimising the impact of Covid. I just know stats and data don't tell the full story in isolatation. Covid is causing a lot of extra deaths (I think I heard on news tonight about 15k excess deaths over 5 year average? Although as I said on an earlier post - not all these will be Covid but secondary effect of lockdown) But my main point in this post is the international comparison figures are meaningless.

With illness, dying 'with Covid' will be intrinsically linked to dying 'because of Covid'. If I die of pneumonia, but have Covid, how can you decide if a)I would have caught pneumonia anyway b) the pneumonia would have been as severe or c) the treatment may have worked and I would have survived it? You can't. All you can say is that I died of pneumonia, with a CV infection.

@owlwearingGlasses these are deaths "for any reason within 28 days of a positive Covid test.'

No. It's around 80,000 excess deaths on 5 year average. And that was until December, many thousands more since.

And ONS figures count those with covid as cause on death certificate, and they count around 103,000 last time I looked.

So we can be compared on those if not on the 28 day ones. Interesting that they're almost the same, really...

It's also been reported in the press about the fact that a high rate (1/3rd) of covid hospitalised patients are readmitted later and relatively high number of them go on to die (twice the usual rate compared to people being hospitalised). Yet their deaths, though possibly contributed to by covid, won't be attributed to it in the official figures. If true, this will even out some of the over-reporting that is being criticised. www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/18/almost-30-of-covid-patients-in-england-re-admitted-to-hospital-after-discharge-study

@Lougle I don't think there will be a lot of deaths like that. It's a bogus example. It would be more like death from dementia with Covid as secondary cause (or other way round). And many of these deaths would, in normal years, be death from flu with underlying cause dementia etc. No one is debating if someone with Covid might have pneumonia anyway. Covid will hasten death in many cases and hence be on death certificate (quite rightly)

Here you go, from ONS roundup (figures to Jan 15th so thousands more since.)

"In total, there have been 94,971 deaths involving COVID-19 registered in England and Wales since the start of the pandemic (up to 15 January 2021). Around 75% of these have occurred among people aged 75 years and over.

Our data are based on deaths registered in England and Wales and include all deaths where “COVID-19” was mentioned on the death certificates. Weekly figures are available by local authority and health board."

These are not the 28 day "for any reason" figures. These are by death certificate.

@Snowrabbit

Lots of talk about why the UK has the highest death rate and has now reached an appalling 100k Covid deaths. Except it's not 100k Covid deaths - it's 100k deaths FOR ANY REASON within 28 days of a positive Covid death. Doesn't make the deaths less / more tragic but it's worth thinking about international comparisons. How many countries are putting down, for example, a cancer death, where the patient incidentally had a positive Covid test several weeks before, as a Covid death. I bet not many. No way counties are reporting in even remotely the same ways. The way we are counting means death which aren't even remotely related to Covid are down as Covid deaths and therefore the focus on the 100k is irrelevant. The true answer will lie more in excess deaths - is this information available for different countries in English somewhere? I think constantly going on about 100,000 deaths isn't helpful. This isn't an effort in minimising but taking a realistic view on how badly the UK is really doing. I don't believe it's as bad comparatively . Not for nationalistic reasons - just because the data makes no sense until all deaths are compiled using the same methods.

Most people who die catch covid in hospital (when they’re being treated for something else) or in a care home - so I imagine that skews the results.

I agree, I looked at this -

notesfrompoland.com/2021/01/04/poland-recorded-more-deaths-in-2020-than-any-year-since-wwii/

They have had 75,000 more deaths than last year, yet are reporting 35,000 deaths according to worldometres. Population is around 40% smaller than ours.

So I also wondered.

@Madhairday I stand corrected on excess death rate. But the issue is not all excess deaths are Covid but also secondary effects of lockdown. And Covid has pushed out many other causes of death from flu etc so it's not all new deaths. There are lots of excess deaths. I'm not minimising. My main point in this post is international comparison. If all counties aren't doing what we are doing... who knows what the true comparison is.

Do you seriously think if the way deaths were counted made us look worse for some reason that Boris wouldn’t be shouting this from the rooftops?

But a death from dementia could well be hastened by Covid. It's interlinked. The person may not have been imminently terminal, but due to Covid they died. Or the dementia made it impossible for them to comply with the treatment regime. It really isn't a fudge to record in this way.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Just look at these figures. However we argue it compared to the rest of the world it's shambolic. If Boris could lower these figures he would. The fact is the borders were not shut down and the first lockdown was too late. There's no excuses, thousands and thousands have needlessly lost their lives including my very dear uncle. Only 58 with no underlying health problems.

I don't think it's a fudge. But if other countries aren't measuring the same way, it's not wise to compare. @Lumene. They have indicated in the past that countries measure differently and that the truth on comparisons won't be known for several years until the data on excess deaths can be properly assessed across countries. Just now, the Govt need to be seen to be sad about the deaths, not defending or saying, but they aren't doing the same as us. The media are just focussing on the usual outrage inducing headlines and not looking at the whole picture.

Yes, and if those who have died of Covid were mostly going to die this year of flu or whatever then excess deaths wouldn't be up by almost 100K. And some of those excess deaths will indeed be caused by lockdown measures, but in the end they're all the fault of the virus - hospitals not offering treatment because of the virus, not lockdown. But the fact is that the vast, vast majority of those excess deaths presented with the same symptoms and the same manner of death.
If it walks like a duck and talks like a duck...