100k deaths (for any reason within 28 days of a positive Covid test)

[Snowrabbit]

Lots of talk about why the UK has the highest death rate and has now reached an appalling 100k Covid deaths. Except it's not 100k Covid deaths - it's 100k deaths FOR ANY REASON within 28 days of a positive Covid death. Doesn't make the deaths less / more tragic but it's worth thinking about international comparisons. How many countries are putting down, for example, a cancer death, where the patient incidentally had a positive Covid test several weeks before, as a Covid death. I bet not many. No way counties are reporting in even remotely the same ways. The way we are counting means death which aren't even remotely related to Covid are down as Covid deaths and therefore the focus on the 100k is irrelevant. The true answer will lie more in excess deaths - is this information available for different countries in English somewhere? I think constantly going on about 100,000 deaths isn't helpful. This isn't an effort in minimising but taking a realistic view on how badly the UK is really doing. I don't believe it's as bad comparatively . Not for nationalistic reasons - just because the data makes no sense until all deaths are compiled using the same methods.

@RafaIsTheKingOfClay

[quote Snowrabbit]@Madhairday my issue is how other countries are counting and reporting. Not in the same way. So the international comparisons are worthless.[/quote]
OP, if this is something that genuinely concerns you then compare the excess death figures. We don't come out of that too well either

@herecomesthsun

Remember many covid deaths are taking place after 28 days. So if anything this is likely to be something of an underestimate.

Also, it isn't an exact science, which contributory cause resulted in a death. It is complex, just as life is complex. Not because doctors aren't deciding properly, just because it is complex and the causes can be interwoven.

Well they estimate that it’s actually not 100k but at least 20-30k more. The 100k is a minimum. So even if you ignored those very few cases where someone tested positive, had no symptoms and died of something else, the total covid death count is still far too high and the 100k is most probably correct for deaths of covid.

Look at Sweden’s excess deaths. They have a population of just over 10 million. Have been praised for their unique approach. Why are we not talking about them ? www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#excess-mortality

The problem with trying to have a specific definition globally is fairly obvious I'd have thought. I agree it would be invaluable to have such a measure, but not all countries have the infrastructure, or political will, to agree a definition someone else has decided. We weren't doing mass PCR testing 9 months ago (which means that last years daily death peak was almost certainly an underestimate), so how can you expect a poor nation with limited lab facilities to test everyone immediately a pandemic is announced.

Deaths above expected is the best we can do for global comparison. And ours is shit.

Don't care about comparing us to other countries.

Do care that the government made some fairly basic mistakes regarding regarding second wave.

Mostly around the fact that in September the world beating test and trace system basically fell over. This allowed the (at that point in time pretty suppressed) virus to propagate again quickly - which meant by the time they discovered the new variant they were already on the back foot. Then they didn't react quickly enough to the change in threat- despite scientific advice to do so. Combined with the fact that many people just couldn't keep isolating or not going to work because of bad employment practises, rent to pay etc etc.

So yes, I put our high death toll, especially the second wave at the feet of government.

I feel the concern too OP. My colleagues mother works in healthcare and a few weeks ago they had a lady in who had had a stroke and had been in hospital for a while before she eventually died. She had a COVID test when she came in and it was negative. Because she hasn’t had a negative test in the days before she died her death was put down as COVID on the death certificate. She had never had a positive test but because she hasn’t had a negative one recently it was attributed to that. This is so so wrong and who knows how many cases like this there are. It’s certainly not the first I have heard of.

LeSquigh I don't believe that story. That just isn't what happens. Someone has got confused somewhere.

@LeSquigh more likely because she hadn't had a recent negative test they couldn't definitely say she was COVID free so this information would be for funeral directors to ensure safety..
It doesn't mean she will feature on the stats fir a COVID death...Reemrmber it is deaths within 28 days of a positive test or cause of death

@Madhairday I've explained my position in multiple posts now. Have you got the excess deaths for other countries? That's my whole point. How badly we are comparatively doing. As I also said in an earlier post, the true toll won't be know until excess deaths are counted over a longer period. I've showed the ONS stats on causes of death from the usual leading causes being way down. My point is a look at raw data on Covid deaths means nothing out of context and there's no point berating the UK without proper comparison. Some people seem to enjoy the indignation and outrage and shooting down anyone asking questions...

@Snowrabbit I agree with you. Our death rate is terrible, it is awful, our hospitals are overwhelmed. I’m not denying we have been hit hard. Other countries say India don’t even record every death, they don’t keep records the same as we do. Now take India they not have suffered in the same way but that could mean because people have starved to death before they got Covid. We are very good at recording data, other countries are not in the same way

Does it really matter how we compare to other Countries? Over 100,000 have lost their lives. That is tragic

Yes and hospitals are overwhelmed.

@Northernsoulgirl45 it does if everyone thinks the UK is performing comparatively horribly. I don't even like the government and wouldn't vote for them in my life but there is a lot of outrage that I feel is being worked up and not necessarily correctly directed. I would would also point out generally that Covid deaths aren't any more tragic than any other death. It grates on me a little to hear politicians offering condolences to those who are counted in lasted figures. What about everyone else that has died that day of other things. It creates a certain atmosphere around Covid which I don't think is helpful.

My lovely colleague who died from covid did so more than 28 days after diagnosis.

Some people will have had their deaths put down as covid when it wasn't the main cause, others like my colleague will have been missed off.

It's not an exact number as it stands. Using excess deaths to back up this figure provides strong evidence of over 100,000.

@Snowrabbit

Graph from here ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

Thanks Gulyan.

This does not show the UK is doing worse and it's clearly stated in black and white that lots of countries don't even have the data so we can compare. I don't think the UK has done particularly worse.

Any death is tragic

I agree. You can see that the number of total deaths in 2020 in Spain is the lowest since 2011: https://www.mscbs.gob.es/estadEstudios/estadisticas/docs/indNacDefunciones/2020Defuncioness_11.pdf
This is the official Health Ministry website. The numbers have been updated on 22 January

@Snowrabbit

I posted Sweden’s excess death number, but it seems to be ignored. I also have Poland’s at hand.

@Snowrabbit I apologise for my snippiness. I'm at the end of it a bit and really struggling with any covid minimising, and the way your thread is titled very much feeds into that narrative, plus the way you hadn't seemed to grasp the deaths of covid thing at the start. But I'm not meaning to be argumentative. Just weary.

You might find this helpful out today, certainly interesting, with many countries excess deaths higher than their covid deaths. (So perhaps what you're saying?)

www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

@juliastone that article from the Economist maps Spain's excess deaths as around 70,000 - this is the problem isn't it, sources that contradict one another (or have I read something wrong somewhere?)

And if that article is correct, the cost of covid in terms of deaths worldwide is going to be far, far higher. Look at Russia, for example :(

Covid is the only thing that explains those excess deaths, or at least in the vast majority. And other excess deaths will be as a result of covid in terms of consequences on health services and of lockdown measures. Such a great tragedy.

@Snowrabbit

Thanks Gulyan.

This does not show the UK is doing worse and it's clearly stated in black and white that lots of countries don't even have the data so we can compare. I don't think the UK has done particularly worse.

The worse? On various metrics probably not but definitely near the top.

Also hopefully this thread has shown you emphatically writing in your OP there are in the U.K. ‘100k deaths FOR ANY REASON within 28 days of a positive Covid death’ is not misleading as you implied as figure for deaths from CoVid on death certificate (90% underlying cause, 10% contributory) is even a little higher and excess deaths figure similar to other two metrics.

[quote Madhairday]@crazyontheweekend have you not read all the other posts informing you of the ONS' count of covid deaths, and how it's even higher than the 28 days one - and how those involve death certificates (90% of which main cause, 10% contributory.) If you're truly sceptical then you will read those sources and make up your mind on that rather than some dodgy anecdata about how people believe doctors have, for some completely inexplicable reason, put covid on death certs when it blatantly wasn't. (I mean just why? Why would they? It's crazy, illogical thinking to think they'd lose their license for doing something that would be completely against their professional judgment. Ask any doctor.)

You've also misunderstood the winter excess deaths from 2018 and used it as a stick to beat lockdown. Please watch this video from the FT, it's really very good and does explain the difference between winter excess deaths and excess deaths. I learned a whole lot through it so I'd really recommend it.

www.ft.com/video/0cd6f9f9-664e-40f9-bad4-dde59d7c746c[/quote]
@Madhairday, really informative video. Thanks for sharing.

@Madhairday The pdf I posted is on the government website, I wouldn't know where The Economist gets their data from. It may be possible that the official numbers on the Spanish gov website need to be updated still, but it would be very strange if The Economist had access to the real data that the government itself doesn't have yet. There is The National Statistics Institute in Spain as well but they don't deal with real data, they get samples and estimate the final numbers (for example for tourist visits every year they only contact some hotels and trust their word on the number of guests etc. then do their calculations and come up with general statistics, I know this first hand). For number of deaths, the Statistics Institute would have estimated numbers and this may be where they got 70000 from (it's very near the covid deaths number). The Health Ministry publishes real numbers based on death certificates, so they are slower, and this is Spain so it's possible that the numbers of total deaths are not updated yet for the whole of 2020, but they are currently 17000 below 2019 total numbers.