AIBU to think the Covid death toll statistics must be a bit skewed?

[AngeloMysterioso]

Been reading the news update about the covid death toll reaching 100k.

What it says on BBC news is “More than 100,000 people have died with Covid-19 in the UK, after 1,631 deaths within 28 days of a positive test were recorded in the daily figures.” (my emphasis).

Does this mean that if someone tests positive for covid but is asymptomatic or recovers quickly, but then gets poisoned or hit by a bus or dies of some other entirely unrelated cause within 28 days, it’s still counted in the covid death stats? Surely that means the statistics are unreliable?

No, that isn’t what it means. The likelihood of dying within 28 days of something completely unrelated is slim anyway and there aren’t hundreds of extra car accidents happening this year, so I suppose there is a chance that a few deaths are counted as covid that aren’t, but very few.

They said in the presser that 9 out of ten of those who died with covid died as a direct result of covid

Actually this is exactly what it means. My dp granddad died of completely unrelated issues (tbh was knocking on deaths door for a while) he tested positive for covid but was actually asymptomatic. He dies within 28 days of the test and his notes say 'died with covid'. He died of completely unrelated issues.
I know of at least 2 other people who have died in similar circumstances. It is complete bollocks.

True, the above poster is right there hasn't been a huge increase in car accidents but I doubt it is 'just a few cases miscounted' when it comes to care homes.

It also misses out all the people who are on ventilators for weeks before they die.

According to ONS stats the 28 day figure is likely to be an UNDERestimate.

That's what it means, yes.

But the chances of dying from something unrelated within a matter of weeks are low.

If you look at excess deaths (above what would be for average over the year) it's actually over the official covid death numbers though, due to the lack of testing at the beginning of the pandemic - last march you were only tested if you were in hospital and they didn't seem to bother with testing people in care homes or very elderly people. So the official stats miss those

The small number of cases where someone dies of something else within 28 days of a positive test are probably balanced out by those that die of it but were never tested (many deaths at home and in nursing homes before testing was widely available from very likely covid) people who had false negative tests who still died of covid (many cases of negative covid tests but classic signs of covid pneumonia on x-rays and scans) and those who test positive and do die from covid but where there is a gap of more than 28 days from testing to death- ICU and hospital stays with covid can be very prolonged and this is unlikely to be an uncommon.

@Fatladyslim saying it on notes doesn’t mean it’s ok his death certificate, having it on the death certificate doesn’t mean it is counted in the stats.

Oops the last sentence should have said this is unlikely to be an uncommon situation.

"Died with covid" is not the same thing as "died of covid". A death certificate will include the immediate cause of death and details of any underlying disease or injury that resulted in that death. Contributory causes can also be recorded, where they may have affected the outcome. If an illness present but it didn't contribute towards the death and was not an underlying factor then it wouldn't be recorded. The details recorded on the certificate are based on what the doctor has observed, many settings have a second doctor review it to make sure they agree, and any deaths which are in doubt or are unclear get referred to the coroner. A family member of mine was referred to the coroner last year as they went into hospital with a UTI, were treated and discharged, came down with covid, went back into hospital where they found the UTI was back, and died a few days later. It was unclear whether the UTI or covid was the main cause of death.

It also misses all the people who died because of covid more than 28 days after a positive test, after weeks in hospital

Just look at the excess deaths statistic to see how many more people are dying.

Why would the government want to artificially increase the number of covid deaths? They don’t want to keep us locked down ffs, they want money in the economy. If anything it’s in their interests to downplay the number of deaths given we have one of the worst death rates from covid in the world (per 100,000 people)

It is 10 days before it gets bad, the average patient in icu is 21 days.
It would make sense 28 days before death.

Sorry, missed off a bit of my post.

So any death certificate with covid as the cause of death or covid as a contributory factor is rightly due to covid. If someone was hit by a bus 27 days after their positive covid test (unlikely) then cause of death would be recorded as massive internal injuries (or words to that effect) and covid wouldn't be anywhere on the death certificate unless it was known to be a contributory factor e.g., the deceased was still unwell with it and this caused them to fall in front of the bus (again, unlikely).

The excess deaths figures show that the death certificates are not being overstated.

Why would the government want to artificially increase the number of covid deaths?

I never said they did...

Yes I've noticed this new way of reporting to. Before it was just daily deaths.

Why change it? Are the figures we're seeing now per day more than the actual daily deaths or less?

@FoxyTheFox

Sorry, missed off a bit of my post.

So any death certificate with covid as the cause of death or covid as a contributory factor is rightly due to covid. If someone was hit by a bus 27 days after their positive covid test (unlikely) then cause of death would be recorded as massive internal injuries (or words to that effect) and covid wouldn't be anywhere on the death certificate unless it was known to be a contributory factor e.g., the deceased was still unwell with it and this caused them to fall in front of the bus (again, unlikely).

The excess deaths figures show that the death certificates are not being overstated.

This x 1000

What about people that die of covid but after 28 days, some people are in hospital poorly for months before dying. I don't believe these people will be counted in the figures so for every person incorrectly included there are others missed that have died as a direct result of covid.

@MolyHolyGuacamole it’s not new, it’s been recurred this way since the summer.

@bitheby

It also misses out all the people who are on ventilators for weeks before they die.

According to ONS stats the 28 day figure is likely to be an UNDERestimate.

This. Many of those dying either in ICU on ventilators or back on a ward post ICU are more than 28 days post positive test.

See also the patients whose lungs & bodies have been so significantly affected by Covid that they die possibly months later, but still earlier than they probably would have done had they never caught Covid.

*recorded! Not recurred 🙄

From this twitter thread responding to this question:

twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1354158351907778567?s=21

1. @PHE_uk tracks deaths by underlying cause fingertips.phe.org.uk/static-reports…

As of Jan 8, 82,180 deaths in England named Covid-19 on death certificate.

Of these, C-19 was underlying cause in 74,000, or 90%. These aren’t people who tested positive, recovered and then fell down stairs

There’s actually court cases of people trying to get COVID removed from their LO death certificate.

If they’re that inaccurate (in either direction, for whatever reason) then what’s the point in publishing them at all?

This is the fifteenth thousandth time this has been discussed here

Because the public need to be aware of how serious this is and need the facts to understand why we have these restrictions.

Deaths are also a matter of public record