AIBU to think the Covid death toll statistics must be a bit skewed?

[AngeloMysterioso]

Been reading the news update about the covid death toll reaching 100k.

What it says on BBC news is “More than 100,000 people have died with Covid-19 in the UK, after 1,631 deaths within 28 days of a positive test were recorded in the daily figures.” (my emphasis).

Does this mean that if someone tests positive for covid but is asymptomatic or recovers quickly, but then gets poisoned or hit by a bus or dies of some other entirely unrelated cause within 28 days, it’s still counted in the covid death stats? Surely that means the statistics are unreliable?

@FoxyTheFox

This is the fifteenth thousandth time this has been discussed here

Ah but surely some of those fifteen thousand were actually threads about being hit by a bus and were just marked down as covid threads because someone on page one mentioned a positive test...

🤣🤣🤣

This shite again. It's been done to death and funnily enough it's always "hit by a bus".

Very much an underestimate

Then why is it being published as fact?

within 28 days of a positive test

If they get a test which is positive, are ill at home for 8 days, go to hospital on a ward for 10 days, then get worse and go to ICU for 4 days, then go on a ventilator for 7 days and die on the 8th day of being ventilated... they won’t be counted in the stats

I'd ignore it and focus on all cause mortality per 100,000. You can't argue with the number of deaths (nobody dies twice) and the only point of argument is what historic average you compare it to.

If you look at past 5 years (low mortality) it's been low, so this past year looks awful. But not so terrible if you pick a 20 year time frame.

You could age adjust for the ageing population as well. But everybody's gotta die some time, so I am not sure about that.

The excess deaths are way more than the official deaths. It’s tragic.

The death figure of those who have died because Covid 19 is with us is in my view understated, because of people not seeking other medical treatment because of a fear of catching the virus, or feeling bad about seeking medical help because of the virus.

Or you could look at what percentage of everyone has died?

[quote Taciturn]Sure, so it's okay to lockdown the whole country, wreck the economy and leave millions destitute because some people are overweight???

The link is here if anyone is interested: www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/covid19deathswithnounderlyinghealthconditionsbrokendownbyage?:uri=aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/covid19deathswithnounderlyinghealthconditionsbrokendownbyage[/quote]
28% of the UK population are obese. That's a bit more than "some people" - it's nearly 1 in 3.

The number of people under 60 who are covered by the "underlying conditions" definition is huge.

ONS data shows a reduction in traditional categories of death, so there is probably a significant overlap in the proportion of the population highly susceptible to dying in the near future from Covid as they would have been to flu or other illnesses if they were in their normal range. The excess deaths and seasonal excess deaths will show a clearer picture in time.

Last summer the excess deaths were below the 5 year average, far less than the excess of the March-April peak, but the lower rates in Jan-Feb and over the summer months will have balanced out a proportion of that peak, and indicates that many of those were likely to have occured within months.

Good job bus companies reduce their timetabling in lockown

Someone in know tested positive. Thankfully mild. And was over it so to speak.

Had a heart attack 26 days after the positive and it says with covid on the death certificate

Also, even if it were worth anything, that statistic only covered the first 6 mths of the pandemic. It's dated October 2020.

You know that "having comorbidities" can mean as little as that the person was overweight? A large proportion of the population has underlying conditions of some kind.

Just because someone under 60 "had comorbidities" doesn't meant they were at death's door or even ill.

So much this. Many people seem to think a comorbidity is something that made the person really ill already or that made them clinically vulnerable or that contributed in some way to their death. It isn't. It is any other illness, condition or disease that the person had. As PPs have said it could be psoriasis, or being overweight, it could also be drinking alcohol at an increasing level of risk, it could be eczema, depression, anxiety, blindness, deafness, being a smoker, allergies etc etc etc.

Basically they have to choose an approximation because they'd otherwise have to employ whole extra teams of people to count the numbers and that money would be better spent on something else.

It's not a perfect way to count but it's close enough. Unfortunately it's spawned a load of conspiracy theories so perhaps in hindsight it wasn't a good idea. Funny how everyone jumps to the being hit by a bus within 28 days scenario.

Actually, I looked again - it's only covering deaths to June 2020. So the first 3 months of the pandemic.

You'll excuse me if I don't change my mind in the fact of statistics which only include c. 4.4k of the deaths to date.

@EatingAllTheCookies

Someone in know tested positive. Thankfully mild. And was over it so to speak.

Had a heart attack 26 days after the positive and it says with covid on the death certificate

We know that Covid increases the blood's propensity to clot, making all sorts of clot-related events (stroke, heart attack, pulmonary embolism) more likely. So it's not unreasonable that Covid may have contributed here.

What policy changes do you think should happen as a result of the death rate, if it was recalculated/reported either up or down?

I posted on another thread to me it’s a slightly meaningless (sorry for insensitivity) number. The only number we are managing in the UK is NHS capacity.

@AngeloMysterioso

Surely the 28 day time frame needs to be revised then?

There seems to be an awful lot of scope for error considering it’s information that’s being broadcast to the nation on a daily basis

It was more than 28 days initially and they revised how they count the deaths to avoid the exact scenario you mention in your OP.

The figures were revised, it didn't make much difference to the overall figures though!

@RichardMarxisinnocent

You know that "having comorbidities" can mean as little as that the person was overweight? A large proportion of the population has underlying conditions of some kind.

Just because someone under 60 "had comorbidities" doesn't meant they were at death's door or even ill.

So much this. Many people seem to think a comorbidity is something that made the person really ill already or that made them clinically vulnerable or that contributed in some way to their death. It isn't. It is any other illness, condition or disease that the person had. As PPs have said it could be psoriasis, or being overweight, it could also be drinking alcohol at an increasing level of risk, it could be eczema, depression, anxiety, blindness, deafness, being a smoker, allergies etc etc etc.

Yes, the fact that only 4.4k of the deaths between March and June 2020 were of people with no comorbidities (of any age) shows exactly how common these "underlying conditions" are!

Over 100,000 people are dead. Hundreds of thousands of people are mourning their loved ones who they weren’t able to say goodbye to, who they weren’t able to honour with a proper funeral. Yet all some posters can do is wibble on about various paper-thin conspiracy theories about how the figures are skewed or falsified or about how it doesn't matter anyway because they were just old people or people with comorbidities.

It really is sickening. Have some compassion.

Hiding the Coronavirus topic is the way to go I think.

My friend’s Dad actually died of cancer, but caught COVID in the hospital, so died “with COVID”. So I think you have something of a point.

@RichardMarxisinnocent

You know that "having comorbidities" can mean as little as that the person was overweight? A large proportion of the population has underlying conditions of some kind.

Just because someone under 60 "had comorbidities" doesn't meant they were at death's door or even ill.

So much this. Many people seem to think a comorbidity is something that made the person really ill already or that made them clinically vulnerable or that contributed in some way to their death. It isn't. It is any other illness, condition or disease that the person had. As PPs have said it could be psoriasis, or being overweight, it could also be drinking alcohol at an increasing level of risk, it could be eczema, depression, anxiety, blindness, deafness, being a smoker, allergies etc etc etc.

Do you really think that locking people into their homes for weeks on end has helped obesity or alcoholism?

@tinselearedcow

Over 100,000 people are dead. Hundreds of thousands of people are mourning their loved ones who they weren’t able to say goodbye to, who they weren’t able to honour with a proper funeral. Yet all some posters can do is wibble on about various paper-thin conspiracy theories about how the figures are skewed or falsified or about how it doesn't matter anyway because they were just old people or people with comorbidities.

It really is sickening. Have some compassion.

Hiding the Coronavirus topic is the way to go I think.

I don't think anyone disputes that each death is a tragedy, but please understand the context: 604k people died in the UK in 2019. Also understand the impact of lockdowns: 40% of EXCESS deaths during the first nationwide lockdown were not "with covid".

Yawn How many times has this been discussed ?
Why not look the question up, there’s loads about dodgy death certificates and dying with, not of covid.
Why not watch a YouTube video about it. The ones that say it’s just like flu and death rates are actually lower than last years.
Another pointless divisive totally innocent thread just to wind people up ....

Why are the 2019 deaths v similar numbers to 2020 deaths? I got my figures from the ONS tonight while watching Boris...I don't understand?