Covid 19 Pandemic could last 4-5 years?

[onlychildandhamster]

www.ndtv.com/world-news/covid-pandemic-could-last-4-to-5-years-singapore-minister-lawrence-wong-2358187

It is a small country 8 timezones away so the opinion of one of its ministers should theoretically not matter. BUT

1. Singapore is closer to the normal than the UK. As of today, there have only been 29 deaths since the start of the pandemic and only 300 plus active cases, the vast majority of which were imported rather than locally transmitted (meaning they were detected upon arrival or during quarantine).
2. Singapore is not under lockdown, schools are open, there are concerts, social gatherings up to 8 people are allowed, restaurants and shops are all open and yet there is a low number of infections for now. So they are basically at the place that UK wants to be even without mass vaccination. They would be able to vaccinate the whole population by this year.

1. in the West no politican would say this as it is electoral suicide. In singapore, the same party has been in power for over 50 years so they aren't worried about winning elections to put it mildly. You can argue that in the west, people wouldn't stand for this and everything would be opened up post vaccination. It reminds me of the time in the summer when the uk government opened up restaurants for Eat out to help out. Massively popular, seemed ok at that time because infections were low but ultimately we had 2 subsequent lockdowns so we weren't out of the woods. AIBU to think we could all be vaccinated, everything would be opened up, a new strain develops (esp in the developing nations which aren't vaccinated) and then we would be in square one again. I don't think we would be in lockdown for years but I am not sure the UK government is being honest with us that vaccination may not equate the end of all Covid 19 restrictions. AIBU.

The narrative from the govt has definitely changed since the discovery of the Kent, SA, Brazil variants. Previously we were being prepared for a 'return to normal' from Spring and now even the govt are being cautious and are preparing us from an even longer haul of living like this.

Sadly I think the Singapore minister is probably right and nobody will be safe until everyone is safe.

I am not sure the UK government is being honest with us that vaccination may not equate the end of all Covid 19 restrictions

Except they haven't said that.

And politicians - including this guy, who is an education minister - aren't experts in virology. Truth is, nobody knows how the next few years may play out.

@IcedPurple He is in charge of the covid 19 response in Singaproe.

What about the pensioners who were booking their overseas holidays after receiving their jab. I thought Boris said the vaccine was our road map out of this mess?

Sadly I think the Singapore minister is probably right and nobody will be safe until everyone is safe.

This. This has been said all along by scientists too.
It's going to raise an interesting moral/ethical question soon - when the most vulnerable groups in our country have been vaccinated, should we divert vaccination supply to developing countries to protect their most vulnerable rather than continue quickly vaccinating the healthy under 50s here?

[quote onlychildandhamster]@IcedPurple He is in charge of the covid 19 response in Singaproe.

What about the pensioners who were booking their overseas holidays after receiving their jab. I thought Boris said the vaccine was our road map out of this mess?[/quote]
He's still a politician. He has no more expertise than British or German politicians and is simply speculating. Also, what does he mean by 'normality'? It's highly unlikely that many industries will be anywhere near normal for some time, but that doesn't mean that life for most people won't be something like normal long before then.

I thought Boris said the vaccine was our road map out of this mess?

It is. Why do you think countries are desperate to get their hands on vaccines?

That doesn't mean that it's going to happen overnight or that other measures won't be needed. But vaccines really should make a massive difference, as they have for other illnesses which were once rampant and are now of little concern.

I doubt it but if it is allowed to let rip in poorer countries then more toxic variants will begin to proliferate as they have already . We will then have to ensure our borders are watertight to protect our population. Therapeutics as sort of Covid morning after pill may end up being more important than vaccines.

@IcedPurple Singaporeans can go see a concert, attend a wedding with 100 people, go to a church, have up to 8 visitors in their homes per day during Chinese New Year, go to work, go to restaurants, have a haircut. But they wear masks everywhere and have to quarantine upon return. So no they don't consider life normal. But their lives look more normal than ours.

@IcedPurple and they can also see their family and meet up with friends normally everyday too, up to 8 people.

waves from Singapore
Correct that we are in a much stronger position than the UK right now - a small population, an attitude of compliance and a strong track and trace system all contribute. They also quarantine everyone on arrival and you have to apply to get in (even then it's only citizens and pass holders).
But, the SG government are very cautious - even with almost no community transmission there are many rules in place. They are draconian about borders too. So it may well be a 4-5 year process here but I wouldn't necessarily say that's applicable to the rest of the world.

[quote onlychildandhamster]@IcedPurple and they can also see their family and meet up with friends normally everyday too, up to 8 people.[/quote]
Not sure what point you're trying to make here.

@vera99

I doubt it but if it is allowed to let rip in poorer countries then more toxic variants will begin to proliferate as they have already . We will then have to ensure our borders are watertight to protect our population. Therapeutics as sort of Covid morning after pill may end up being more important than vaccines.

There's increased activity into rapid reviews of therapeutics for preventing or treating COVID–19 infection both within NICE and NIHR.

There's an Oxford Principle trial that's about the expand the range of treatments available for treating mild COVID–19 in the community (age 65 and older or 50 and older if there's a pre-existing condition) and reduce the need for hospitalisation (or the 'ripening' into a severe case). Patients can self-enrol for that now without needing their GP practice to have registered.

www.principletrial.org/

@IcedPurple Given that people in Singapore can do most things normally apart from international travel while we are under lockdown for an undisclosed amount of time it would stand to reason that we would take a longer time to even get to that level. The Singapore government might be very strict but it also had only a month long lockdown in the whole pandemic. The UK has had periods of relative freedom in the last year but it seemed to have ended up in more lockdowns. Just because you don't take draconian restrictions now doesn't preclude you from being forced to do so in the future when cases skyrocket. the uk government is now in the process of introducing the strict quarantine that many other countries introduced a year ago.

I think this is a turning point for humanity, we will never go back to the old normal

[quote onlychildandhamster]@IcedPurple Given that people in Singapore can do most things normally apart from international travel while we are under lockdown for an undisclosed amount of time it would stand to reason that we would take a longer time to even get to that level. The Singapore government might be very strict but it also had only a month long lockdown in the whole pandemic. The UK has had periods of relative freedom in the last year but it seemed to have ended up in more lockdowns. Just because you don't take draconian restrictions now doesn't preclude you from being forced to do so in the future when cases skyrocket. the uk government is now in the process of introducing the strict quarantine that many other countries introduced a year ago.[/quote]
None of this really has anything to do with whether or not the education minister is correct. And why do you think cases will "skyrocket" in the future, with several vaccines and better treatments already available, and more being discovered all the time?

@IcedPurple new variants? Israel's cases are still going up despite the highest vaccination rate in the world and its being blamed on the new uk variant. Experts there want to extend lockdown by another week.

[quote onlychildandhamster]@IcedPurple new variants? Israel's cases are still going up despite the highest vaccination rate in the world and its being blamed on the new uk variant. Experts there want to extend lockdown by another week.[/quote]
This 'new variant' thing is getting tiresome. Experts have said time and again that the vaccines can be, and in the case of Moderna, already are being, modified. And extending lockdown by a week is hardly a big deal.

@onlychildandhamster

that doesn't seem to be correct. Article in Israel Times today noting that hospitalisations have dropped by 60% in Israel.

Op just a warning there are posters who get very very angry about threads like this, despite being in the topic and despite reporting factually on what's going on.
I honestly don't know how this is going to 'end' but I honestly can't see restrictions lasting beyond summer. That said, I'd have never thought a year ago we'd be here :(

@IcedPurple

Absolutely correct. Moderna came out yesterday and see they are already in the lab producing a booster shot for any variants.

@IcedPurple they have also banned all flights in and out of the country; www.timesofisrael.com/mutated-covid-19-strains-are-stymieing-efforts-to-curb-spread-virus-czar-says/

But yes if this is going to be around for 4-5 years, a very different approach has to be taken when planning holidays. Booking flexible flights.. or flights 1-2 days in advance so that you wouldn't be caught out if a country suddenly introduces travel bans/quarantine restrictions...

@StealthPolarBear not saying lockdown is going to last forever...Its just a discussion on what might happen. As someone with a wedding reception/family in singapore thats been postponed for a year and would probably be postponed to 2022, i have also been affected but I am at peace with it. its just the way things are.

@Australia77Australia77
www.timesofisrael.com/increased-child-infection-rates-cast-doubt-on-school-reopenings/

With infection rates remaining high on Tuesday, and amid reports of increased child morbidity as a result of the British strain of the coronavirus, the imminent reopening of the education system with the easing of the lockdown appeared less likely.

[quote onlychildandhamster]@IcedPurple they have also banned all flights in and out of the country; www.timesofisrael.com/mutated-covid-19-strains-are-stymieing-efforts-to-curb-spread-virus-czar-says/

But yes if this is going to be around for 4-5 years, a very different approach has to be taken when planning holidays. Booking flexible flights.. or flights 1-2 days in advance so that you wouldn't be caught out if a country suddenly introduces travel bans/quarantine restrictions...[/quote]
Again, I don't see the relevance to the topic of this thread.

Vaccines work. They're not the only solution, but they are massively effective.

@Australia77

Deputy Health Minister Yoav Kisch said Tuesday that the restrictions and vaccination program were not yet having the desired effect on infection rates.

“We are not seeing the decline [in infection] that we wanted to see — yesterday 8,571 new cases were diagnosed, and we are still at over 1,100 critically ill patients,” he told Army Radio. “The big fear is that a strain of the coronavirus will arrive [in Israel] that will be resistant to the vaccine. It worries us a lot.”