Covid 19 Pandemic could last 4-5 years?

[onlychildandhamster]

www.ndtv.com/world-news/covid-pandemic-could-last-4-to-5-years-singapore-minister-lawrence-wong-2358187

It is a small country 8 timezones away so the opinion of one of its ministers should theoretically not matter. BUT

1. Singapore is closer to the normal than the UK. As of today, there have only been 29 deaths since the start of the pandemic and only 300 plus active cases, the vast majority of which were imported rather than locally transmitted (meaning they were detected upon arrival or during quarantine).
2. Singapore is not under lockdown, schools are open, there are concerts, social gatherings up to 8 people are allowed, restaurants and shops are all open and yet there is a low number of infections for now. So they are basically at the place that UK wants to be even without mass vaccination. They would be able to vaccinate the whole population by this year.

1. in the West no politican would say this as it is electoral suicide. In singapore, the same party has been in power for over 50 years so they aren't worried about winning elections to put it mildly. You can argue that in the west, people wouldn't stand for this and everything would be opened up post vaccination. It reminds me of the time in the summer when the uk government opened up restaurants for Eat out to help out. Massively popular, seemed ok at that time because infections were low but ultimately we had 2 subsequent lockdowns so we weren't out of the woods. AIBU to think we could all be vaccinated, everything would be opened up, a new strain develops (esp in the developing nations which aren't vaccinated) and then we would be in square one again. I don't think we would be in lockdown for years but I am not sure the UK government is being honest with us that vaccination may not equate the end of all Covid 19 restrictions. AIBU.

@vera99

I doubt it but if it is allowed to let rip in poorer countries then more toxic variants will begin to proliferate as they have already . We will then have to ensure our borders are watertight to protect our population. Therapeutics as sort of Covid morning after pill may end up being more important than vaccines.

I think this is going to be the case, too, @vera99 - that it will be treatments, rather than prevention, that will provide more breakthroughs the more we understand what we're dealing with. An analogy would be Fleming discovering that mould (penicillin) treated otherwise fatal infections.

[quote onlychildandhamster]@IcedPurple He is in charge of the covid 19 response in Singaproe.

What about the pensioners who were booking their overseas holidays after receiving their jab. I thought Boris said the vaccine was our road map out of this mess?[/quote]
He has also said don't think you can have the jab and just swan off somewhere or wander round the shops. It's the way out but not a simple cure of all problems.

@IcedPurple My thread wasn't that the vaccine doesn't work, my thread was that covid 19 would continue to affect our lives five years from now even after the vaccine. Whether new variants develop, whether it is because people from overseas bring the virus back from unvaccinated countries, no one knows. But we should be prepared for restrictions in the foreseeable future and how strict they would be, i guess no one knows at this stage.

Right wing populist government’s, such as ours, have all performed badly.

It's not just about going back to normal within Singapore. Singapore is so dependent on other countries - business, tourism, imports - none of this will go back to normal until the rest of the world gets a grip on covid. And Singapore will continue to suffer economically until it can open its borders.

@Blacktothepink

Right wing populist government’s, such as ours, have all performed badly.

I think you'd find Singapore a little bit more right wing than the UK...

@emptydreamer It is quite right wing in terms of the tax policies and the way it treats disabled people, single mums, people who don't fit the narrative of the 'worthy poor' and 'self reliance'. I also wouldn't call it populist, I would call it technocratic- the policies are all exhaustively drafted by civil servants who map out various scenarios. Its not really right or left in that way- they just want to do what works.

But when the ruling party was founded, it was a democratic socialist party- party constitution was based on the UK Labour party and several members were staunch Fabians. So there are aspects like the public housing scheme that offers 85% of Singaporeans subsidized home ownership of government built apartments that are remarkably socialist.

I would say that- countries with a low level of polarization with weak leaders have done badly. Look at UK/USA. Our inequalities (not just economic but also political) have been simmering for years. This means we can't come together to solve an actual problem.

*countries with a high level of polarization with weak leaders have done bad

Probably weak leaders and polarization go hand in hand, since divide-and-conquer is a low hanging fruit/quick and dirty way to go about things

Overall cases in Israel haven’t really dropped but that is mainly because very few people seem to be taking lockdown seriously. However the number of cases in people who have had their second vaccine has fallen sharply and the health authorities hope this will be reflected in falling cases shortly. Over 25% of the population have had their first injection and 10% both injections. Interestingly they are now prioritising all school staff, 17-18 year olds and pregnant women as well as all over 40s

@atomt

Sadly I think the Singapore minister is probably right and nobody will be safe until everyone is safe.

This. This has been said all along by scientists too.
It's going to raise an interesting moral/ethical question soon - when the most vulnerable groups in our country have been vaccinated, should we divert vaccination supply to developing countries to protect their most vulnerable rather than continue quickly vaccinating the healthy under 50s here?

Yes we should.

I would say that- countries with a high level of polarization with weak leaders have done badly.
That I agree with. Someone said to me the other day that the current crop of UK politicians is formed of people who genuinely did not expect to deal with real disasters and emergencies during their time in the office - max stress they were prepared to tolerate was political point-scoring against them or tabloid scandals about their dirty laundry - and I was impressed how accurate that was. It is not only about the ruling party, it is applicable probably to everyone at the top, including the opposition.

@onlychildandhamster

So countries that have had very low case / death rates might take longer to be fully back to ‘normal’ due to their low tolerance of deaths. (Although for what is worth, I’d be thrilled if we lived like they are during 2021)

So if Singapore or NZ vaccinate and then go back to ‘normal’ / open borders and have 200 deaths a month then that would seem terrible as they’ve barely had any - if we vaccinate and go back to ‘normal’ and had 200 deaths a month, we’d all tolerate that (as suggested by Chris Whitty).

*200 deaths a month is made up - I don’t actually know what a ‘tolerable’ number would be