Primary schools back sooner than expected?

[deeplybaffled]

It’s hard to know what to believe, but PHE now seem to be suggesting that primary schools can safely return after half term - which seems to contradict all other recent reports and government comments
focussing around Easter!

Wakes are starting to open after half term - be interesting to see in what capacity which will be confirmed next week apparently.

I started a new thread with this but perhaps it would be more useful/of interest as part of the discussion here.

Minimal transmission in primary school children in Norway (ages 5-13)

www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.26.1.2002011

[quote bumbleymummy]I started a new thread with this but perhaps it would be more useful/of interest as part of the discussion here.

Minimal transmission in primary school children in Norway (ages 5-13)

www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.26.1.2002011[/quote]
I expect average class sizes of 20 help too.

Of course. But it shows that schools can be safe.

Excellent thread on school transmission:

twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1346362159446577154?s=21

Norway one- august to nov. No new variant.

This stood out for me in the above thread:

Recent analyses from the ONS suggest that 2-12 yr olds are 2x and 12-16 yr olds 7x more likely to be the index case in a household compared with adults. And both 2-12yr olds & 12-16 yr olds are 2x more likely to transmit to contacts in the household compared to adults.

This isn't just about schools, this is about hospitals and how much infection we can cope with in the community.

Also, we found that with rates of 350-400 plus in nov, there was considerable disruption to education due to classes and teachers self isolating, teachers taking time off due to their children self isolating or actually being ill.

Many areas have this level now or higher.

Once we have have the sections of the population that are the most likely to die or have serious infection then there is no point in trying to suppress the virus in the community. By all means vaccinate the teachers but once you have reduced the risk of death and serious illness in the over 50s and vulnerable, where 99% of the deaths and serious illness is seen then the NHS can deal with the 1% in the under 50s who may have serious infection.
Allowing the virus to spread rapidly through the healthy population who are going to be vaccinated anyway will lead to a rapid recovery.
We have 12 months of stats that give a clear risk indicator. We know that the healthy under 50s have incredibly low risk in fact probably less than risk of dying of flu. Very few under 50s would consider having a flu vaccine and don’t spend the winter self isolating or social distancing.
It’s a novel virus but we have a massive amount of data world wide to reassure us that once the vulnerable are protected we can just get on with life.

• vaccinated - missed out in first sentence

I agree Angrymum

@Angrymum22

Once we have have the sections of the population that are the most likely to die or have serious infection then there is no point in trying to suppress the virus in the community. By all means vaccinate the teachers but once you have reduced the risk of death and serious illness in the over 50s and vulnerable, where 99% of the deaths and serious illness is seen then the NHS can deal with the 1% in the under 50s who may have serious infection. Allowing the virus to spread rapidly through the healthy population who are going to be vaccinated anyway will lead to a rapid recovery. We have 12 months of stats that give a clear risk indicator. We know that the healthy under 50s have incredibly low risk in fact probably less than risk of dying of flu. Very few under 50s would consider having a flu vaccine and don’t spend the winter self isolating or social distancing. It’s a novel virus but we have a massive amount of data world wide to reassure us that once the vulnerable are protected we can just get on with life.

er....what about mutations? What will you do if the virus mutates into something SOOOO much worse? By letting it run free that is what you do realise that is a very possible outcome. What if lets say it runs more in children? What if the virus mutates to such a degree that they become vunerable. What you are saying is way too simplistic. In the last few months of this pandemic it has mutated several times. The virus has got both far more infectious and more deadly. I think there is NOTHING reassuring in that!

@HauntedPencil

Wakes are starting to open after half term - be interesting to see in what capacity which will be confirmed next week apparently.

If it happens. I think it is incredibly foolish unless they reduce class sizes hugely and impose other mitigations.

I don't agree.

What do you propose we do - lockdown forever? We are seeing case numbers here not seen since the beginning of October.

The return will likely be just infants & some key groups, and monitored.

@HauntedPencil

What do you propose we do - lockdown forever? We are seeing case numbers here not seen since the beginning of October.

The return will likely be just infants & some key groups, and monitored.

No if course not. Things need to be made safer until adults are vaccinated.

You've said below you don't think it good enough to relax even when all the over 50s are done, just in case there is a mutation. That's just not feasible.

We could be looking at September, even later.

With no schools at all?

@Fortherosesjoni70 it could just as easily mutate into something milder.

It should mutate into something milder according to science I believe?

I am fed up now with people calling for lockdown forever. This is nuts.

I simply don't understand the resistance to making schools safer.

Make schools safer.

In other countries they've opened schools with safety measures and HAVEN'T had a second wave. Their kids are still in school.

It's really not rocket science. The very basic recommendations to reduce airborne spread in schools have been ignored again and again.

Who is resisting it?

DfE - they explicitly advise against masks in the classroom and have given no extra money to schools for - for example - increased ventilation measures.

They also threatened to take schools considering blended learning to court.

Also are against rotas (even though some schools doing them now to manage numbers as far as I can tell).

@IloveJKRowling

I simply don't understand the resistance to making schools safer.

Make schools safer.

In other countries they've opened schools with safety measures and HAVEN'T had a second wave. Their kids are still in school.

It's really not rocket science. The very basic recommendations to reduce airborne spread in schools have been ignored again and again.

Have those countries had the new variant yet?

An I see - yes. There are also some resistant parent groups re masks etc (which I find bizarre)

Have those countries had the new variant yet?

The reason new variants can take over is when they're given an environment in which to thrive. We gave the new variant the perfect environment: lots of people crammed indoors 30+ to a room for hours on end, no masks.

Look at this. english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html