COVID-19 in 2021 - realistic outlooks please

[PumpkinPieAlibi]

Lots of back and forth on this board recently between those who insist most things will be back to normal by the summer and those who think we're going to have lockdowns for the next decade.

I don't think either is the case; there are some definite positives at the moment such as the speed with which vaccines have been found and are being rolled out and some significant negatives too e.g. the numerous variants and their transmissibility, lethality etc.

Can I ask for posters who want a balanced perspective i.e. not just happy news and positive vibes but a measured opinion based on the information that we have, to post here please? This entire situation is unprecedented and I'd like to discuss both the small victories and the setbacks as they occur.

I'll start - I think the vaccines will be a gamechanger (obviously) but I will admit to being very concerned about all the new variants and their impact on immunity. The situation in Manaus Brazil points to the Brazilian variant as possibly causing reinfection as over 76% of the population in Manaus was infected last year but there has been another huge surge in infections, including in people previously infected, recently.

So...based on the info that we have now, where do you honestly think we're heading in 1, 3, 6 months? I know I didn't see us here 3 months ago.

Schools back after Easter
Adults vaccinated by Autumn
Children included?
Second vaccination round kicks off at end of 2021 with tweaks to vaccine
Reopening of businesses gradually April / May /June (monitored by government to see effects)
Continued social distancing through 2021
Strict control at borders for a while until sure about new strains
Vaccination passport needed to travel
Hiding true situation at first budget so as not to scare people off spending
Horrific Autumn 2021 / Spring 2022 budgets to pay for everything

Just guessing though.

No expert here and just my own opinion but for me, I see hospital admissions decreasing slowly within the next two months, slowly restrictions will begin to relax but not immediately.

I can’t see school opening before Easter, they would really need to be the first major relaxation of lockdown and as Easter is early this year, beginning of April, I really can’t imagine they’ll open up beforehand.

Depending on hospital figures I would hope schools could possibly open after the Easter break, maybe.

Then we’re heading into May for hospitality hopefully opening but depending on local area numbers.

After that the warmer weather is on our side and we will hopefully be able to mix again with family.

After that more and more of the population will have been able to access the vaccine, the top 4 groups will (hopefully) have had their second vaccine and therefore we will be in a much better position to understand where we are at with regards to variants etc.

It’s so hard looking into the future. Almost a year ago who would have believed we would still be where we are now. Unthinkable really.

@OverTheRainbowLiesOz - thanks. This is exactly the kind of speculation I was asking for. Things will get better but you're right as to some of the long-term effects. I agree re: vaccination passports. At the very least, a negative test from no longer than 72 hours prior to travel would be expected. Plus with state-mandated quarantines, travel bans in certain countries and a general hesitance in the global population, I wonder what will happen to leisure travel in the future?

It depends on what the government does. If they open schools too early restriction in other areas will last longer. If they run out of vaccine restrictions last longer. If the new strains come to the Uk and spread/are vaccine resistant restrictions last longer.
I would like to think that relaxation will begin after Easter with almost back to normal by September. But it really does depend.

@JanieLane - It’s so hard looking into the future. Almost a year ago who would have believed we would still be where we are now. Unthinkable really.

It's shocking isn't it? I can be a bit pessimistic at times and a year ago, I remember being concerned at the news coming out of China and no one else seemed bothered so I rationalised that my anxiety was to blame. But 1 year later and it's beyond what I thought would ever happen.

But on the plus side, I also did not believe a viable vaccine would be manufactured before mid-2021 and we've done marvellously there as a global community so the whole thing has been mind-boggling in good and bad ways.

Risk of hospitalisation will be 50% by the 17th Feb, and an 80% reduction by 28th Feb. Combined with lockdown reducing overall cases, we should see relatively few people going into hospital with Covid toward the end of February.

As the figures go down public opinion will shift toward reducing restrictions. I see a few minor things announced in mid-Feb, to come into force early March, and then back to last summer rules by May.

February is going to see a real change in public opinion as the most vulnerable are protected by the vaccine and this will dramatically reduce NHS numbers.

In Israel not a single person of 128,000 monitored after receiving the vaccine (plus 2-3 weeks to take effect) ended up in hospital, and only 20 tested positive.

Be positive!

I think this year will be much like last year with restrictions in place through out the rest of 2021. Hopefully summer will open up a bit more but I don't think mass gatherings etc will happen, not sure about hospitality, perhaps similar to last year.

Hopefully next winter will be better new strains permitting and beyond that I think things like masks, social distancing etc are here for the next few years yet. I think that things will start to improve in 2022, with life looking more normal but there will probably still be tiers and local lockdowns here and there. Covid will remain in the background for sometime with occasional worries about new strains as they emerge before it slowly subsides into a low grade seasonal virus in the medium to long term.

I think the government will meet their first vaccination target in mid Feb. I think schools may partially open before Easter with primary schools back mid March in low transmission areas.

I think despite the assurance that schools will open first they may go for increased mixing outside from end of Feb. This seems to be a low risk way to demonstrate to people that lockdown isn't forever and things are improving.

After that I think everything else will ease assuming vaccine supply remains stable. I think borders are going to be closed in the medium term though. I don't think summer holidays abroad will happen. It feels as though the government are bunkering down... get things better here and then ensure we protect the vaccination scheme by keeping importation of other strains low.

*ease gradually

My opinion/guess.
Schools back after Easter, possibly some (exam years) back mid March if infection rates become low enough.
If vaccines are going well then also after Easter for non essential retail and dining out but only if food bought and eating outside. Social distancing still.
From May onwards then for bars and other entertainment but with social distancing until most if not all adults vaccinated.
Even then, I think most will be ready for the next vaccine so possibly social distancing over winter but with everything open.

This year will be worse than last year.

The vaccine will prove itself not to be the answer, at least in this country as the government is more concerned with number crunching.

We will be in lockdown for the vast majority of this year. It will be a shitshow. The NHS will collapse under pressure. And people will protest.

This country is proving itself to be a perfect storm in regards to this virus.

If the vaccination programme goes as well as it's going now at about 2.5 million a week, they should get to healthy adults in their 30s as early as late April/early May for first vaccination. That gives me so much hope! There are still other vaccinations likely to get approved soon too, Novavax, Valneva and J&J.

Along with infection rates hopefully going down through lockdown and the tiers after that, I think things will look a lot brighter by late summer/early autumn.

The new variants are the biggest risk at this point - as Matt Hancock said yesterday on Marr, the most worrying are the variants we don't yet know about... But on the positive side, Moderna is already working on an extra booster vaccination to make it more effective for the South African variant - hopefully the same could be done reasonably quickly by the other companies too if we get more new variants.

I think due to the worry about the new variants, foreign travel will be restricted for all of 2021 one way or another though.

I expect some social distancing measures to be in place for next winter such as masks.

If this continue on there current path

Towards the end of February. Back in tier system. Depending on what tier none essential shops open

First week in March reception, year 1 and 2 back to school. Teachers wearing masks but heaven knows if anything else will change

Years 3 to 6 back to school for last week before Easter holidays. As above re safety.

Secondary schools back after Easter. Teachers in masks and probably kids too. Other safety measures who knows

April/ May cafes, pubs, restaurants open

No big events or concerts all year

Have no idea how they will handle foreign travel long term

We hopefully will have every adult that wants the jab in the country vaccinated by August. Then in the Autumn new and improved jabs for the first priority groups again as annual thing

I also think that if the vaccine is proven to reduce transmission then the Government will target groups such as University students and older secondary school children.

Ripples. With respect. Don’t be a dick.

Do you feel better now Ripples?

With respect countessfrog,

If you dont like my comment, then, with respect, counter it respectfully.

All I’ll say is time will prove me either right or wrong. You being crude won’t prove absolutely nothing.

“Won’t prove absolutely nothing”

I could have worded that better!!!

I've been feeling very doom and gloom recently but the news this evening looks good.

I think Rainbows predictions seems realistic.

I would love it to be a few weeks earlier for schools and am really doubting my ability to mentally/emotionally cope with online teaching for another half term after this one. But I really don't want to lose any of the summer term so I see the wisdom is waiting. Maybe if it could just be a couple of weeks at the end of the Spring Term to get going then have a circuit break.

Maybe ( extreme wishful thinking here! ) being able to see vaccinated older family members in gardens at Easter.

I'm not sure they will hit the vaccine target. My area is still only on group 1, my parents haven't been contact yet (they live in the same county but different town) and I'm ECV. Think they are group 3 and I'm group 4
Surgery says vaccine supply is sporadic and they've done about 2000 vaccines in total
Which seems ridiculous when the next county had a centre that did 4000 vaccines in 9 days!

@OverTheRainbowLiesOz

Schools back after Easter Adults vaccinated by Autumn Children included? Second vaccination round kicks off at end of 2021 with tweaks to vaccine Reopening of businesses gradually April / May /June (monitored by government to see effects) Continued social distancing through 2021 Strict control at borders for a while until sure about new strains Vaccination passport needed to travel Hiding true situation at first budget so as not to scare people off spending Horrific Autumn 2021 / Spring 2022 budgets to pay for everything

Agreed

Agree with @OverTheRainbowLiesOz.

Home schooling is really hard and I feel so bleak about things right now when I think of doing it until after Easter. I’m not a good teacher and I can’t be that great a parent when I am trying to teach and also work. Something has to give and I end up doing a poor job at all three things. I’m sure it’s the same for many of you.

I see my 8 y o only child and how she’s changed over the past year - lost confidence in many ways and feels sad about not seeing her friends (only child).

I see the weekends looming before us and feel a mixture of relief at a break from homeschool but also that sense that we are running out of ideas for things to do and places to go.

I think much of 2021 will be like this, especially the bit before the summer.

It’s very hard but waiting until after Easter to open schools is the right thing to do I think, especially if we want to avoid new variants because the risk of that happening increases the more people mix. I think we probably just have to grit our teeth and stick it out because we all want this lockdown to be the last one in which schools are closed. I don’t think I could bear to see them open up again only to close. It breaks my heart.

On the plus side I do think the vaccination programme seems to be going pretty well. I’ll be 45 soon and the hope that I might get my first dose in maybe April or May is what’s keeping me going.

@ripples101 - that's an intense outlook.

I'll admit that I think the UK has messed up their response but any particular reason why you think it will get so bad?