COVID-19 in 2021 - realistic outlooks please

[PumpkinPieAlibi]

Lots of back and forth on this board recently between those who insist most things will be back to normal by the summer and those who think we're going to have lockdowns for the next decade.

I don't think either is the case; there are some definite positives at the moment such as the speed with which vaccines have been found and are being rolled out and some significant negatives too e.g. the numerous variants and their transmissibility, lethality etc.

Can I ask for posters who want a balanced perspective i.e. not just happy news and positive vibes but a measured opinion based on the information that we have, to post here please? This entire situation is unprecedented and I'd like to discuss both the small victories and the setbacks as they occur.

I'll start - I think the vaccines will be a gamechanger (obviously) but I will admit to being very concerned about all the new variants and their impact on immunity. The situation in Manaus Brazil points to the Brazilian variant as possibly causing reinfection as over 76% of the population in Manaus was infected last year but there has been another huge surge in infections, including in people previously infected, recently.

So...based on the info that we have now, where do you honestly think we're heading in 1, 3, 6 months? I know I didn't see us here 3 months ago.

@manicinsomniac

Maybe ( extreme wishful thinking here! ) being able to see vaccinated older family members in gardens at Easter.

I can see that happening

Fingers crossed we stay on target

The thing is, the patients filling ICUs are not the 70 and 80 year olds (who are largely made 'comfortable' in general covid wards) but the 40, 50 and 60 year olds and they won't be vaccinated until May / June, so pressure may continue for a while

Less worried about the Brazilian variant as I have read multiple times that it's literally a few weeks to tweak the vaccines

The 60 and 50 year olds should be vaccinated with first dose by the end of March.

One dose gives very good protection from serious illness and hospitalisation with both Pfizer and the oxford.

In my view all bets are still off
May be in 6-months time when we've seen what happens with all these new variants...

@Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum

The 60 and 50 year olds should be vaccinated with first dose by the end of March.

One dose gives very good protection from serious illness and hospitalisation with both Pfizer and the oxford.

That's not scheduled to happen by March

LimitIsUp

Boris has openly said he wants it to happen by the end of March.

If we continue to vaccinate at are current rate it will happen. If they ramp it up to 500k or more a day. Which is looking very likely. Then mid March is a real possibility now.

Truly But won't we have to start again at the end of Feb because groups 1-4 Will need their second dose? My grandparents had their 1st dose before Christmas so will need the second fairly soon. Will we have enough supply and personnel to be able to do more 1st doses at the same time as the 2nds? I thought everything would stall for a few weeks.

Has @ripples101 read the news about the AZ vaccine not being very effective at all.... news just coming out from the EU??

Maybe that’s what’s behind that post

Worrying if true!

The first month was vaccination numbers were much lower. So mathematical it is very possible to finish the priority list in March. We do need to get over 500k a day though.

Then hopefully by Easter we will have another vaccine or two approved as well. Else things will get slower.

@MrsMercedes

Has *@ripples101* read the news about the AZ vaccine not being very effective at all.... news just coming out from the EU??

Maybe that’s what’s behind that post

Worrying if true!

You obviously haven't read it properly. It is name calling from a gutter paper because the EU order for the vaccine has been cut down. The manufacturer can't produce as much as they need.

I think mask wearing and social distancing is here till summer 2022.
And nowhere will go below tier 2 when things start opening up again

@Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum I suggested ripples had. I haven’t, I just saw the thread about it. I’m not wasting time reading all the links....... I’ll wait for tomorrow’s news when a more measured report will be available

As I said......worrying if true

I hope that happens Truly - but I think there are some supply side issues? For example Pfizer who have said they need to slow / halt production temporarily to make some changes to their manufacturing plant (which when completed will increase production)

Would be fantastic however if the vaccination programme continue on its promising trajectory

Judging by the political stumbling of Sturgeon in a interview. Then telling off she got from Westminster I think we have enough

No guarantees but the first list should be ok

I think we'll be back to Tier 1 / Tier 2 during the summer but then Autumn and Winter 2021 will be dire again.

I don't have a huge amount of optimism around the vaccine given new variants, delayed second doses, general government incompetence.

I think next year we will finally be in a place where the pandemic is much more controlled but then we have to face up to how to pay for it all, and that will be brutal.

Sorry that sounds gloomy!