Genuinely not moaning, and not asking for a friend asking for me.....Anyone know how accurate the vaccine calculators are

[FinallyFluid]

Please and thank you.

I am CEV and the calculator says this Tuesday.

Personally I am expecting the end of February and anything else will be a bonus.

They're just a guide based on current rates of vaccination and the current priority list.

I guess what I was wondering has anyone been projected to X date and been called near to that date.

I am safe and well, and grateful for a roof over my head, I am just bored and amusing myself.

There are only so many sausage rolls a girl can make, and only so many sausage rolls the inmates can eat.

All they do is apply a mathematical formula to your age. If it turns out they were right is a coincidence

They bear zero realation to the real world.

@Ch3rish

All they do is apply a mathematical formula to your age. If it turns out they were right is a coincidence

They bear zero realation to the real world.

Thought as much, but it was post here or make banana bread ....again.....

If you’re CEV then you are in group 4 along with the 70-74 year-olds. So I’d expect in the first half of February.

Thank you puzzled.

The data available to the algorithm is the number of people in each age group, and the number of CEV, hopefully by age.

The assumptions of the model are

1. how many are being vaccinated each day or week (some models allow you to change this according to what is being reported on the news)
2. That priority groups are being vaccinated in order, eg all 80+s before they start on the 75-80

It then does the same calculation as you would, ie - there are X people in a higher priority group than you still waiting for a vaccination (and Y people in your group).

N people per week are being vaccinated, so you will have to wait at least X/N weeks (and you may have to wait (X+Y)/N weeks if you're the last person in your group to be vaccinated).

So it may be "just" a mathematical formula. But I can't see any better way of doing it short of today actually making an appointment for everybody in the country - and that would be liable to huge change because of missed appointments and re-bookings, fluctuations in the supplies of vaccine, staff administering the vaccines going off sick, etc.

They bear zero relation to the real world is a bit of an overstatement, to say the least.

It's also going to depend where you live. A few areas are already onto group 4, others are barely halfway through group 1.

If someone had the urge to do it, the algorithm could be changed to allow for area - the data is available (because that's why supplies to the N have been throttled back).

I’m CEV and it’s telling me to expect first jab between 26/01 and 07/02

I had it yesterday.....

I am mid fifties with autoimmune disease, but not on any immunosuppressant drugs, so it isn’t clear whether than will affect my position or not. Anyone have any idea ?

@iVampire those are the dates that come up for me, not heard a thing yet, although in a way I’m pleased it’s not next week as I have my ongoing treatment scheduled and would prefer to leave at least 72 hrs between the two. Might not make any difference but I’m sure that’s what is recommended for the flu vaccine?

I’ll update here when I hear anything.

@SirVixofVixHall Check the underlying medical conditions list on here. People who’ve been shielding are in group 4. People with the other conditions listed and in group 6.

www.gov.uk/government/publications/priority-groups-for-coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-advice-from-the-jcvi-30-december-2020/joint-committee-on-vaccination-and-immunisation-advice-on-priority-groups-for-covid-19-vaccination-30-december-2020

Thank you Quantum

Following in from my post yesterday, I’ve literally just had a text inviting me to have the vaccine. Appointments all available for this week!

So I’m my case, the predictor was spot on!

Mine has shifted out by a week, they are allegedly two days ahead of schedule around here and the local post master told a friend that some of their elderly customers are on their second jab.

I am developing Stockholm Syndrome, so another week won't make much of a difference.

@JanieLane

Following in from my post yesterday, I’ve literally just had a text inviting me to have the vaccine. Appointments all available for this week!

So I’m my case, the predictor was spot on!

I want to say enjoy but that is weird.....

So I will say YAY.

My parents are 79, so group 2, and predicted end of Jan/Feb.

But had their's about 2 weeks ago. I think that was due to their area being super efficient and ahead.

You can book it online if you are eligible

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4145026-If-you-are-eligible-you-can-book-your-vax-online

My Mum is 83 and received her letter a couple of weeks ago. The first appointment she could actually book was for 6/2!

Gibsons

Computer says no......

@FinallyFluid

Gibsons

Computer says no......

Ok, so that means your letter hasn’t been generated yet. However, once it has been, you’ll be able to book online, even if you haven’t received your letter yet. Check daily

Thank you I will.