I am very tired of the whole pandemic and my mental health is suffering.
My eldest DC is going to end up with substantially worse exam results than without a pandemic, and both primary and secondary remote provision was until this month, let’s be kind and say “ropey” at best. All my DC massively miss their friends and social activities.
I want nothing more than for normal life, socialisation for my kids and schools fully open.
I do not think this is a reasonable aim any time soon.
There seems to be a LOT of misunderstanding about vaccination.
Firstly, if you vaccinate all the most vulnerable groups by mid Feb and reduce deaths massively this does not mean it is ok the let the virus circulate more.
The “most vulnerable groups” referred to are the top four. It is right that giving these groups at least one jab will very likely substantially reduce deaths (third image attached is from www.actuaries.org.uk). This is absolutely fantastic. However, it will NOT alone stop the NHS being overwhelmed if things like schools reopen. These groups are not the ones in intensive care mostly, and many many of the people who become ill enough to need hospital admission and then recover are under 70.
If community transmission stays at high rates or increases again the NHS will be overwhelmed EVEN IF those top 4 groups have substantial immunity, because younger patients will need weeks of hospital and ICU care. Some will die, and if there are too many not all will get good enough care or an ICU bed if they need it.
Death is not the only measure. Many of those who have survived ICU or long hospital ward stays and some of those who were ill at home suffer long term health consequences. Things like needing oxygen at home months later, being unable to resume usual day to day activities, heart damage and all the long covid symptoms people talk about. It is a nasty disease for lots of people, including people who are not elderly and did not have anything wrong with them beforehand.
Hospitals are full to bursting right now and will take some weeks to be less full, as people don’t recover and go home instantly. Some people who will get ill enough to need hospital or ICU from the current wave aren’t in there yet. Reopening things like schools will lead to increased community rates more generally as children are vectors.
Secondly the idea of vaccinating teachers. There are nine priority vaccine groups. The top four prevent the majority of deaths. The next five then have the biggest impact on serious disease, i.e. likelihood of needing ICU or hospital stay. If teachers are in one of these groups as well as being a teacher then they get their first jab when their turn comes. If they are not, then because vaccine supply is limited letting teachers go first means others at higher risk of death or serious disease wait longer. This not only seems morally wrong, but also means, yes you guessed it, it’s a worse strategy when the NHS is already struggling.
Vaccinating teachers does not address the reason for school closures which is to reduce community transmission as others have said. It is the limited vaccine supply that limits the speed of the vaccination rollout.
The first two attached images show the national data which illustrates that the vast majority of ICU admissions are really not elderly or clinically vulnerable.