"Vaccines won't end lockdown" - WTAF ?!?

[NinetyNineRedBalloonsGoBy]

Can someone explain why not? I just don't get it. If vaccines don't end lockdown what will?

These aren't rhetorical questions, I have 2 degrees so I'm fairly well educated, but I just do not understand how this will ever end if the vaccines aren't the way out.

I'm not sure I can cope with this no-life-life beyond March.

I keep seeing this headline too. If the vaccine won’t help us out of this mess why are we giving it to people?
I can cope with this if there’s a clear end in sight ;even if it’s in the distance) but not the thought of it just going on & on

They're worried about variants coming in but won't shut the borders.

They will, eventually. But we won't have nearly enough people vaccinated by March to convince the government to let us out and risk another wave. And even with vaccinations, some people will still get Covid, just like some people get flu.

God, I'm bored of stuff being quoted out of context to scare people.

The vaccine reduces the likelihood of you getting severe symptoms if you are infected. This relieves pressure on the NHS as even if the same number of us catch it, fewer of us should need hospital care.

The more people are vaccinated, the more we can relax lockdown.

But there’s a tipping point - if the virus is allowed to run rampant and infect everybody, then a lot of us would still get serious symptoms and be very ill/die.

So it has to be managed carefully.

We also don’t know yet how long protection from the vaccine or from recovery will last, or how infectious or dangerous new strains will be.

We should all be prepared for lockdowns coming and going and some kind of tier system for at least the remainder of this year and most likely into 2022.

When you see a headline like that, you should read the story accompanying it.

There are some unknowns, the answers for which should be known in a few weeks to a few month's time.

1. Do the results from the trial carry over to the real world? Data from Israel should tell this soon
2. Does it work for the elderly?
3. Does it prevent transmission?
4. What level of the population needs to take the vaccine before there is herd immunity?
5. What's the right interval between doses?
6. Does the vaccine work with the various variants?
7. How long do the vaccines offer immunity?

The facts so far are
a) the efficacy in trails is very good (at least for Pfizer and Moderna)
b) the virus mutates slowly than flu and other viruses
c) the vaccines target the spike protein which makes the virus deadly (so, in theory, should work with most deadly mutations too)
d) vaccines trigger strong immune responses

But a lot of things could go wrong too. Keep a close watch on Israel and UK numbers in the coming weeks and months and we should have the answers.

I am optimistic and keeping my fingers crossed.

I think if still tiers or lockdown and masks etc feck it don't have vaccine save the most of rollout. And both vallance and whitty have said irrespective of vaccine restrictions are here to stay. What's the point then

Jesus Christ. This is like the tenth thread on this

They also don't want people thinking once they have the vaccine they are "safe" as you won't be able to get them to stick to the rules as easily.

Short term, no they won't, because it takes time to vaccine enough people.

Longer term, yes they will. In the same way that here in the UK we don't need to worry about measles outbreaks or polio outbreaks or smallpox outbreaks any more. (All of those were more transmissible and more lethal than covid.)

It will eventually, but not immediately. Isn't that clear enough?

Thank you @Daddeee that explains it better than all the news articles I've read on this.

Vaccines dont work on their own. They arent a complete solution. In order to be effective they also need low community spread so R number to be low.

They will just not straight away. Not without suppressing growth

Mutations within the UK, variants coming in, pace of vaccination ...

I was looking at the A/H1N1 'Spanish flu' pandemic and there were similar forces and no vaccines and it lasted (in waves) for 3 years, getting weaker after the supposed worst wave in the autumn and winter of late 1918 into the start of 1819.

We'll be fortunate to get the timing right of our vaccination programme versus mutations versus the approach of the autumn and winter months in 1921.

As we've thrown everything into vaccines, given the seriousness of the disease, the way we are administering the vaccines and the take-up rates need to be top notch in order to be not locked down in October onwards. And I have my doubts tbh.

P.S. I'm fed up too, OP.

Because mutations. Because transmissions.

Well, the vaccines WILL be ending my lockdown whether the government are on board or not.

@feelingquitehopeful

Well, the vaccines WILL be ending my lockdown whether the government are on board or not.

Me too

My neighbour who was vaccinated in mid December is now positive in bed and quite unwell. His grandparents caught covid from a vaccinated paramedic. This is a small community with a local hospital so cases are know individually. Both grandparents now in hospital. Also local care home has had an outbreak despite everyone bring vaccinated including all the staff before Christmas. Doesnt look like the vaccine is going to fix this to me either.

The vaccine is known (even without the contentious delay to the second dose) not to work for 2 weeks after delivery. All of the cases of people vaccinated with it now would have got it in that period
Dr Fauci in the US said that the one shot J&J shot was looking good and that was a real game changer (as it’s one shot) and we have that as well
Supply of the vaccine is the issue of everyone could be done and done again within 3 weeks it would be fine. Israel is starting to look good

Nothing is going to stop covid .. as in it's here to stay forever. But that's nothing of anything. Eventually enough people will have had it or they will have been vaccinated (if the gvmt don't fuck that up but I don't know I trust them with the whole bigger gap between doses thing. Nah I don't trust the government at all they've screwed everything up )....but I mean the illness? It's not going it's here to stay. It might stay as it is but we become protected from it ... Sadly some people will still die of it, just as they die from flu, and indeed other things - some people tragically die from chicken pox .... Or it might eventually mutate to just become a mild cold...who knows .. but covid-19 in and of itself is never going to now go.
Restrictions will though. Headlines like that are pure fear mongering and best avoided if this sort of thing bothers you.

Sorry I pressed enter too soon - vaccines won't end lockdown either - again bullshit headline.... What will end lockdown Is the nhs being able to cope with it's workload. Vaccines are never 100% effective. There are going to have to be an absolute ton of people vaccinated for it to help ... The nhs being able to cope with it's workload will be what ends lockdown though because thats why we are locked down in the first place....

What will end lockdown Is the nhs being able to cope with it's workload

Exactly this.

Vaccination is one means to this end.

The faster route is lockdown. New infections have fallen considerably, but they are still too high and NHS is still overstretched. The peak numbers of new infections are still working their way through the system, and the levels infected this week are not yet low enough to see any significant easing.

But lockdown is bringing the numbers down. The easing will come, but it's still a few weeks away.

Vaccination with one jab should show an effect on patterns of hospitalisation, but it takes 2-3 weeks from first shot to any level of protection, and 2-3 weeks from second shot to the higher protective level.

It's quite important that people understand the lag. Someone immunised this weekend isn't considered protected at all until the first weekend in February, will have their second shot no later that weekend 17/18 April, and be considered as fully protected as the jab can confer over the first weekend in May

Being vaccinated doesn't mean you have a covid passport, I think is main message.

Until "they" see the hospitalisation & death numbers are right down in spite of loosening restrictions, then nothing ends lockdown. Vaccination stats aren't enough to stop lockdown without demonstrable proof that huge harm has stopped happening.