Can we unlock the schools at start of Feb?

[MeandT]

I'm totally supportive of the lockdown BUT by the end of next week, case numbers nationally will be the same as they were at end of November. Hospital admissions are falling again.

Rather than going back into tiers with the shops and food pubs open (where all the spreading happened in December), can we not issue all the teachers with N95 masks (and vaccines for the clinically vulnerable), make all the kids wear triple layer face masks all the time, and just get on with the important job of educating this country's kids in person? Starting again 1st of Feb.

AIBU to ask if we can send the kids back as soon as we hit the case rate we unlocked at on 2nd December?

IABU= no way, the cases will shoot up too quickly again, even if they all wear masks all day.

IANBU = yes, get them back before half term, the only reason it went nuts in December was because everyone was out Christmas shopping and seeing family.

[quote Thewiseoneincognito]@Wheresmykimchi

🦆🦆🦆🦆 for your biscuits[/quote]
Ducks don't eat biscuits Hun x

Until there is some sustained drop and control of numbers, schools won't fully open. No idea of when this will be or what is around the corner. Nobody knows. It won't be February based on the situation now. After that who knows?

People have such a poor understanding of statistics that it is reckless to bandy around ‘ ‘30% more deadly’.
The hard of thinking don’t grasp that 30% of an infinitesimal risk (for the vast majority of the population) is still an infinitesimal risk.
Those for whom dying of Covid is a measurable risk will have been vaccinated by mid/Feb.
At that point there is no excuse gor keeping schools closed.

"The hard of thinking don’t grasp that 30% of an infinitesimal risk (for the vast majority of the population) is still an infinitesimal risk.
Those for whom dying of Covid is a measurable risk will have been vaccinated by mid/Feb.
At that point there is no excuse gor keeping schools closed"

Rather arrogant and conceited post

Given that you think others are hard of thinking here's a couple of reasons schools will likely still be closed to pupils mid Feb.

Even if we vaccinate the top 4 priority groups they won't be protected until 3 weeks afterwards.

The people vaccinated account for the majority of deaths but not the majority of hospitalisations and only a quarter of those in ICU whom as I'm sure you know are being looked after by 1 nurse between 3 to 4 patients which is not sustainable.

At current r rates we may still have 20000 cases a day in mid Feb. That's people testing positive so Infections could be significantly more

We do know that infections were spreading in schools with the old strain and they will certainly spread much easier with the new one since SD is non existent in classrooms.

As someone who gas been infected and seen dozens of colleagues infected too most of the people I know have recovered but suffering various symptoms and fatigue months later. It is possible that these symptoms will be more common too with the new strain.

Ultimately the experts with a lifetime of experience will make the call based on the data and new findings at the time but even Boris seems to managing expectations about schools being back. Are he and all the members of sage hard of thinking too?

@EmmanuelleMakro

People have such a poor understanding of statistics that it is reckless to bandy around ‘ ‘30% more deadly’. The hard of thinking don’t grasp that 30% of an infinitesimal risk (for the vast majority of the population) is still an infinitesimal risk. Those for whom dying of Covid is a measurable risk will have been vaccinated by mid/Feb. At that point there is no excuse gor keeping schools closed.

I’m not very awake but is it that simple (I would love it to be). ?

It’s not solely about mortality at this point is it? In some areas hospitals are swamped, my local ones are having to send patients 2 hours away to a Nightingale , police are having to help drive ambulances and there were tents put up to deal with the queue of ambulances outside one of the hospitals.

The most vulnerable being vulnerable helps a lot once enough time passed for them to develop a response to it but a lot of patients in ITU are now younger and staying longer as thankfully survive but putting huge pressure in the NHS.

Numbers of cases are thankfully falling but Whitty made the point that they are falling from an extremely high level and it wouldn’t take much for them to rise again. The more cases in circulation the greater the chance of further mutation .

I got the impression from yesterday’s briefing that mortality is one piece of the data that they are considering and there are others that have to be taken into account so unfortunately not as straightforward as what you are saying, but really hope I am wrong.

@EmmanuelleMakro

People have such a poor understanding of statistics that it is reckless to bandy around ‘ ‘30% more deadly’. The hard of thinking don’t grasp that 30% of an infinitesimal risk (for the vast majority of the population) is still an infinitesimal risk. Those for whom dying of Covid is a measurable risk will have been vaccinated by mid/Feb. At that point there is no excuse gor keeping schools closed.

While transparency from the government on the risk posed is important, I thought they made a mistake using that statistic to scaremonger yesterday evening when the evidence appears to be very uncertain still and like you say the risk to most is still so smalll. It seems to have backfired to a degree. I think they know they're fast losing or have indeed already lost majority support for this lockdown and school closures lasting much longer.

Fully agree with you regarding mid-february reopening, last year's mistake of allowing the months to roll on when all children could actually have returned to school before the summer holidays can't be repeated. A month's time isn't 'soon' where schools reopening is concerned, still feeling really positive about the vaccine rollout.

1. Mortality isn't everything but 100,000 people have died of Covid in 10 months. Of it had been the new variant, it would have been 130,000. 30,000 more people dead who shouldn't have been. That's not infinitesimal and it's offensive to say so.

1. It's been repeatedly pointed out that "protect the NHS" is the point of the lockdown. The vaccine will protect people from dying. It's being given first to those most at risk at death. But those are not the only or even the majority of people in ITU. As someone pointed out on another thread, if 50% of the people currently in ITU are in the categories not likely to get a vaccine for a while, and we open up society, including schools, we only need one doubling of the cases and subsequently admissions, to see ITU full again - just of younger and younger people each time. Then the rest of us will get no healthcare whatsoever again. We can't have that.

Anyone stating mid Feb as an acceptable date to get schools fully reopened is deluded. The NHS is about to endure the toughest months ahead and the last thing we need is 11 million kids mixing indoors. I cannot understand how anyone would think this is the right thing to do. The vaccine roll out is progressing but the benefits will just not impact on this current wave.

there are many, many teens and children whose mental health will be improved by online learning and not being in school.

I'd love to see evidence of that. Could you please provide a link?

Anyone stating mid Feb as an acceptable date to get schools fully reopened is deluded. The NHS is about to endure the toughest months ahead and the last thing we need is 11 million kids mixing indoors. I cannot understand how anyone would think this is the right thing to do. The vaccine roll out is progressing but the benefits will just not impact on this current wave

You took the words right out of my mouth. I find it unbelievable that anyone could think schools should be opened to all very soon, when we are right in the eye of the storm with enormous case numbers, huge death numbers and the new variant making things tougher.

@mrshoho

Anyone stating mid Feb as an acceptable date to get schools fully reopened is deluded. The NHS is about to endure the toughest months ahead and the last thing we need is 11 million kids mixing indoors. I cannot understand how anyone would think this is the right thing to do. The vaccine roll out is progressing but the benefits will just not impact on this current wave.

I agree with you. There is another thread on here where people seriously think its ok to send their child back to nursery just because they are sick of taking them for a walk every day. People want the schools open because they are finding it hard having their children at home. We need to find ways to help people cope with homeschooling. We all want things to get back to normal, but I'm afraid that's not going to happen just yet and we've got to accept that and do the best we can.

I have a couple of kids who normally have lots of absence caused by anxiety, telling me that they much prefer the set up we have now. I’ve also got kids who have sat silently in my class doing next to nothing now producing work and asking questions. One size does not fit all and it is foolish to think that lockdown is having same effect on all children.

Then perhaps having had the experience of supporting a child through a complete mental health breakdown in the past and now seeing my younger DC's MH deteriorating as a result of this isolation from the classroom and peers (and mine have eachother's company and are close), I have a different perspective.

It won’t be the same for everyone but there’s no doubt the negative impact is there. Changes this time have helped here but I really feel for children in this.

There’s a thread for primary age dc atm, so many finding it hard.

I’m really curious about when some people here think schools can actually open. For some it seems like ‘Never’ if they think we should wait until the virus goes away

We was tier 3 previously and cases was low. We are on track to vaccinate the vulnerable shortly however because the South are doing poorly at keeping up they are reducing our vaccine availability

I do not think there should be any rush to return secondary students to school full time. I think online teaching is absolutely effective for my subject (maths) and the focus should be on providing and improving online access. I have no desire to return to the horrendous disruption and poor quality provision that we had before Christmas. What we have now is more effective.

I think people are comparing online provision to a normal year. This is ridiculous. You need to compare it to students being absent for a random two weeks out of every half term, being taught cover lessons by non specialist teachers for two more weeks, and receiving substandard lessons for every week as the teachers struggle to teach both online and at home simultaneously.
Unless you can ensure that the chaos scenario won’t happen, you’d be better off opting for online.

@bumbleymummy

I’m really curious about when some people here think schools can actually open. For some it seems like ‘Never’ if they think we should wait until the virus goes away

who are you referring to when you say some people here think this?

@bumbleymummy

I’m really curious about when some people here think schools can actually open. For some it seems like ‘Never’ if they think we should wait until the virus goes away

How very odd; I haven’t seen anyone say this.

The government need a plan for reopening schools, other than telling all schools to reopen as before at full capacity, as that wasn’t a very good plan.

I’m hoping that’s what Gavin Williamson is now spending his days discussing with head teachers, PHE, unions and the DfE. Unfortunately it might take time and money.

"The hard of thinking don’t grasp that 30% of an infinitesimal risk (for the vast majority of the population) is still an infinitesimal risk."

I think that the most shocking thing about @EmmanuelleMakro's supercilious and sneering post is that she professes to be a teacher.

@bumbleymummy

I’m really curious about when some people here think schools can actually open. For some it seems like ‘Never’ if they think we should wait until the virus goes away

As soon as possible but at the moment it isn’t clear when that will be.

@bumbleymummy

I’m really curious about when some people here think schools can actually open. For some it seems like ‘Never’ if they think we should wait until the virus goes away

For the sake of the wider community, we shouldn’t open schools until mitigation measures (masks, lower R rate, ventilation, rotas, social distancing...) are put into place as they contribute to high infection rates, leading to an overwhelmed health system.

With my logical brain, therefore, I know we shouldn’t open them too soon because of the impact on infection rates, but I would be prepared to go back into school to teach (thereby allowing schools to open) when I have had the vaccination and I am less likely to die when I catch Covid. I think I would move out to the house to keep my family from harm though. I speak only for myself and not the wider teaching community.

@MarshaBradyo I’m sorry I didn’t reply to you earlier. The figures for working parents of primary age weren’t given by me but seem reasonable given we work from 21-67 (approximately). I have seen them mentioned on the data thread too. I thought it was an interesting point as we are all rather insular and lots of people are focused on opening other businesses before schools to protect their livelihood. They will begin to push and this government is fickle in swapping its affections. I agree they are still saying schools are a priority at this current time, as are the opposition.

If I have an agenda, it is to push school staff to the top of the list for vaccines once the over 70s are vaccinated. Certainly before schools are opened, anyway. I actually love my job and being with the children (I’ve been teaching for over twenty years) but I can’t do it whilst there is a strong possibility I will be very ill or die if I catch the virus from an unsafe working environment.

I hope a part of the government’s plan for reopening schools fully is that all teachers and TA’s are vaccinated first. If this doesn’t happen nothing will have been gained from the latest lockdown.

Before Christmas my school was hit very hard and we ended up with every year group in isolation and a very long list of children with confirmed Covid.

In addition to that, we also had at least 8 staff that I know of, who went on to have a Covid positive test. I haven’t seen all staff, so numbers could be higher.

The colleagues I have spoke to said it was awful. Weeks on, one colleague describes it as feeling like a permanent hangover...headaches, foggy brain, aching, fatigue, general feeling of unwell and residual breathlessness. He’s a healthy 40 year old rugby player. Another colleague is still so sick, so hasn’t returned to online learning. These are people who caught the virus before Christmas.

We are not going to have our full cohort of staff if we open too soon either. And if more go off sick with the virus because we open too soon, schools will close again due to lack of staff.

‘Opening now’ is not the answer. The answer is to wait, tolerate and when we do go back, it will hopefully be at a time that we can concentrate on recovery.

• That is how the 40 year old male colleague feels now, weeks after Covid btw, not the symptoms at the time.