Restrictions to be eased at Easter *MNHQ title edit to remind everyone not to get their hopes up.*

[sally067]

Not sure if it was mentioned in another thread but I saw tonight that it looks like the Government plans are that we will see this lockdown lifted at the beginning of April.

twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1351313981894483970

This thread of tweets seems to suggest that cities will likely only go back into Tier's 3 and 4 though so we'll still be in a lockdown of sorts until May regardless of the vaccine rollout due to the shear number of cases at present. I guess any hope of things opening in February or March were a bit of a long shot with the new variant.

All seems so endless. Easter is 12 weeks or 51 working days away. I've never wished my life away so much and really hope we get an early Spring.

@LizFlowers

Shehz21: I don't know a soul in RL who is in favour of lockdown. ... I do, plenty of them. They generally feel that if we had had a longer, proper lockdown first time around we'd have got it under control and wouldn't be in this position now.

People have to stick to the guidelines if we are ever going to beat this thing. It's a pain but it will be worth it.

We DID have it "under control" last June. Numbers of infections, hospitalisations and deaths were very low in July. Trouble is that too much was re-opened too quickly. By the end of August, infection numbers were starting to rise again, and restrictions weren't brought back quickly enough to stop the exponential growth getting hold. We should have been bringing back restrictions as soon as infections started to rise. Unfortunately, too many people naively thought that rising infection numbers was only due to more testing and were in denial that it was coming back again! Add into that far too many people thinking we'd beaten it and were ignoring the restrictions that remained in place. Plenty of people thought foreign holidays were essential. Some people in London, in July, actually believed London had acquired herd immunity (as their case numbers were tiny), so were actually calling for a lifting of all restrictions there and ignoring restrictions anyway. Rather than lifting restrictions too quickly and heading back to normality at that time, we should have kept more restrictions in place and waited a little longer. Unfortunately, the great general public were too impatient for that and, aided and abetted by the media, pressurised the government to open up too much, which ultimately led to more restrictions and lockdowns. We can't make those mistakes again this time. This time, we have to come out of it slowly and permanently with no going back to restrictions/lockdowns if we get it wrong.

@JabbyMcJabface

Ideas that we will be 'back to normal' this side of Christmas, i think are on the optimistic side at this point but that may change as the year progresses.

I genuinely don’t think the British public will stand for another year of hefty restrictions, and definitely not another Christmas of not seeing family. What’s the point in protecting the lives of (predominantly) older people if they don’t get to see their families?

By that stage my parents will be the wrong side of 75 and I suspect they’ll be starting to think they’d rather take the chance and see their grandkids when the time they have left is starting to disappear anyway.

People have been posting this kind of thing since March last year.

How they won't stand for another 3 months, 6 months, year or whatever of restrictions. People won't do another lockdown. Etc etc.

I see no sign of a revolution and don't think that's true at all - it was said after the first lockdown that we couldn't do it again and yet we had the tier system, lockdown in November and here we are again a month into a 4-5 month stretch with the possibility that might rumble on and on.

I think if we had another couple of years of lockdowns people would generally comply and follow the rules.

“ I'd be happy to stay in lockdown until autumn to be honest. I'm sick of the uncertainty of 'will we won't we' go back into lockdown. I want it over and done with and if that means another 9 months of lockdown, so be it.”

That makes sense, I agree in theory and it would suit me but not everyone will be able to stick to the guidelines and I am aware of people suffering great hardship. If we could pull together to help others in need it would be a great thing - surely possible from behind our computers. Those who can afford it, donating a little money, for example.

@MaMaD1990

I'd be happy to stay in lockdown until autumn to be honest. I'm sick of the uncertainty of 'will we won't we' go back into lockdown. I want it over and done with and if that means another 9 months of lockdown, so be it.

I'm fascinated by responses like this. 9 months of lockdown? Are you reading up on the effect of lockdowns? I actually find it quite a selfish approach.

People are crumbling, emotionally, physically, financially and we then we have others happy to have lives on hold indefinitely as long as everyone's else's lives are on hold too.

It's utterly heart-breaking and scary reading about people dying of covid. Lockdown brings - cancer treatments on hold, screening cancelled, education stopped, children's mental health plummeting, PND soaring, domestic abuse increasing, people on route to poverty. But yeah let's just stay in until October because the in and out approach is frustrating some people.

I really don't think people will comply with several years of lockdowns.

@november90 @Dollywilde FWIW I had a crappy covid mat leave too (solidarity) and actually have found things better since going back to work. I enjoy a bit more structure, love that DC is having contact with kids and playing at nursery and then I feel I have more enthusiasm for the wet walks, playing at home on my non working days than I did when it was relentlessly all day every day. Hope you're both ok its a crap time to be a new mum. Hang in there .

God this is bleak

I can't see anything offensive in @wanderings post? It seems sensible.

For those happy to stay in lockdown till Autumn what do you think will happen to the economy it’s fragile now.

Adults lives matter too

Of course all lives and all people matter, its desperately sad.
Personally , having struggled very hard to build some sort of retirement life...classes, groups, shopping, holidays....the usual stuff, to have it taken away overnight is devastating.

The lack of coherant communication from the government is dire.

Comparisons with WW2 are pretty pointless but could we just have some sort of coherant message and some shred of hope.

This is the loneliest, most divisive thing.

Glad my kids can at least go to school!

We DID have it "under control" last June. Numbers of infections, hospitalisations and deaths were very low in July. Trouble is that too much was re-opened too quickly. By the end of August, infection numbers were starting to rise again, and restrictions weren't brought back quickly enough to stop the exponential growth getting hold. We should have been bringing back restrictions as soon as infections started to rise

I think this point has been made today by Patrick Valance. Rather politely whilst quoting Einstein (see upthread).

@sally067 do you honestly think people who have been vaccinated will comply with lockdowns for another year?

They need a new strategy really. Apart from the doom mongers on here who would happily stay locked up forever. A year is pretty much the maximin people will not see family for.

[quote JabbyMcJabface]@sally067 do you honestly think people who have been vaccinated will comply with lockdowns for another year?[/quote]
Exactly. Total madness.

I'm not thrilled but think it's the most likely scenario - assuming the numbers are going down by then.

And no people won’t comply once they are fully vaccinated. They need to work out a way out of these restrictions. Or we won’t have an economy left.

Regarding my imitation of Saint Boris:
No apologies, no regrets.

Should the cartoonists who satirise him every day apologise to him?

[quote JabbyMcJabface]@sally067 do you honestly think people who have been vaccinated will comply with lockdowns for another year?[/quote]
Maybe not in terms of meeting with people in households but I'm talking in terms of the government ordering what can open. Pubs, restaurants, hairdressers, non essential shops, etc are hardly going to open if they aren't allowed to and to me that means we are still in lockdown.

@user1497207191
I really hope your predictions are how we progress through this year. They seem sensible and allow small glimmers of hope on the journey. If the grand reopenings take place in one week, it will send us back in lockdown for longer. We need to take baby steps and ignore the tantrums.

@rosie1959

For those happy to stay in lockdown till Autumn what do you think will happen to the economy it’s fragile now.

But having yet another false start, opening things up for a couple of months, and then closing it all down again would knacker the economy even more.

No sane person can think the extra economic activity from a few foreign holidays and the eat out to spread covid scheme last Summer can in any way make up for the restrictions and lockdowns from September onwards, culminating in the current lockdown.

When we come out of the lockdowns/restrictions this time around, there has to be no going back. We have to be 100% certain that we can finally control it.

The constant moving to/from different restrictions/lockdowns is far more damaging to the economy due to the uncertainty and extending the restrictions.

I would actually support a move to Tier 3 but keeping schools closed, before I would support opening the schools and keeping everything else shut again.

The damage is done re education for this year, and I say that as someone with a primary school DD, who (if we are out to Easter) will have had just 7.5 weeks in school in 12 months. Sending them back for a couple of weeks pre Easter to then be off again is more unsettling for the kids in terms of routine than leaving be, particularly if we're still playing bubble hokey-cokey. It causes a heck of a lot of mixing, as well, because there is no pretending schools can distance with current measures.

Tier 3 but no schools keeps mixing down but allows businesses to open, families to see one another a bit, kids exercise and activities to go ahead, gyms to open, and the risk of transmission is lowered without schools, so this could possibly be opened more. I'm in G Manchester - Tier 3 has been our norm for a year. It's liveable with, with the exception that my DD hasn't actually been able to 'play' in person with a friend for a year now.

It's counter to the understood rhetoric re schools, I know, but I would stay put until scientists say numbers low enough, then move to Tier 3. If we could aim for that by say mid March (conceivable on current trend), and stay there until after Easter to see what affect, that would give families chance to have a break, see each other, etc without the increased risk of transmission. By then, the weather should have improved, so outdoor mixing much, much easier to achieve.

Schools could then return in a staggered format after Easter, with regular testing for all, and a good number of vaccinations done. Masks mandatory in secondary and upper Primary. Review again and back in full time for the summer half term to allow grading and transitions.

Then release again for the summer and vaccinate like crazy.

I understand why schools are important, but, honestly, the In/out, bubbles popping, no distancing set up we had in Autumn was just stupid. DD had to isolate twice, including her half term. It's just not helpful and its not less stressful than planned home-schooling. Too, schools going back does mean other restrictions have to be tighter, so their return guarantees a tightened Tier 4 for longer. Our kids surely deserve a chance to actually see their families, see their friends, get their hobbies back, have an actual holiday break, as well as being stuffed full of English and Maths? We need to give the poor little sods chance to have a childhood, too, and that's more than school.

@Delatron

And no people won’t comply once they are fully vaccinated. They need to work out a way out of these restrictions. Or we won’t have an economy left.

We won't have an economy left if we come out of this lockdown too quickly and end up having to go back into another lockdown. You have to remember, we don't even know if the vaccine will be effective to get the infections/hospitalisations/deaths down to permanently low levels. The hope is that restrictions can slowly be lifted as more and more people are vaccinated - but if infection rates/hospitalisations and deaths don't reduce significantly and level out at low numbers, then some restrictions will stay for longer.

I would actually support a move to Tier 3 but keeping schools closed, before I would support opening the schools and keeping everything else shut again.

Trouble is that people can't work if their young kids aren't at school.