Restrictions to be eased at Easter *MNHQ title edit to remind everyone not to get their hopes up.*

[sally067]

Not sure if it was mentioned in another thread but I saw tonight that it looks like the Government plans are that we will see this lockdown lifted at the beginning of April.

twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1351313981894483970

This thread of tweets seems to suggest that cities will likely only go back into Tier's 3 and 4 though so we'll still be in a lockdown of sorts until May regardless of the vaccine rollout due to the shear number of cases at present. I guess any hope of things opening in February or March were a bit of a long shot with the new variant.

All seems so endless. Easter is 12 weeks or 51 working days away. I've never wished my life away so much and really hope we get an early Spring.

I know people want the certainty of a specific date to look forward to but things don't work like that in a pandemic.
It's impossible to predict anything that far in advance. It depends on the vaccine supply and how effective the vaccine is at reducing infection and transmission, as well as people following the guidelines.

We wouldn't have had to save the NHS at all if people hadn't repeatedly fucking voted for Tory governments who have been defunding and dismantling it for the last decade

To be fair it's not just the funding, it's also the mismanagement and rubbish use of resources. Too much spent on admin and consultants and too little on healthcare and efficient communication.

It will depend on where we are at for vaccinations.

What i CAN see is problems with foreign travel. I suspect we may see borders closed well into the Autumn because other countries haven't got on top of their vaccination programmes even if we have.

Matt Hancock saying not to book foreign holidays was a big hint imo.

I also think that there will be wariness about new variants and problems getting special treatment because we are no longer in the EU (which we previously got prior to the end of transition). So even if say Germany and The Netherlands do well with their vaccination programmes other EU countries may be lagging behind considerably and thats going to be problematic.

Where we will be in July / Aug? Hard to tell really. I think we will probably still be mostly in Tier 2 with Tier 1 for some places.

I think the government will want tourism open for the season but will be wary about mass meet ups of 18 - 30s who will still only be getting their first vaccination around then.

They will not want problems going into the new school year, so i do think restrictions are going to be around longer than perhaps people want / expect.

Then i think all bets are off for the Autumn onwards. It really then depends at that point on how the virus is mutating and responds to vaccines and how successful the vaccination programme has been.

Ideas that we will be 'back to normal' this side of Christmas, i think are on the optimistic side at this point but that may change as the year progresses.

I'd make the most of the opportunities you are given within the limits of the law and the not as binding guidance.

I think its going to be a long year and inevitably harder than last. I think beyond that its quite hard to predict where we will be next January.

It would be daft to send the kids back to school in February, April would be more reasonable.

I think the government will want tourism open for the season but will be wary about mass meet ups of 18 - 30s who will still only be getting their first vaccination around then

And what about younger teenagers? I hope they can have some freedom this summer.

I hope some schools will return before April, April feels a long way away . I think it’s so much harder this time due to the time of year and people generally being fed up of it all. I understand why it has to be done and that we don’t want to ease restriction too soon but having kids off school until April after they had most of last year off just feels awful.

Tier 4 is lockdown with another name for anyone without school age children. The tier 4 message is stay at home, the lockdown message is stay at home it’s the same thing! I have a 5 month old and I would like to get some sort of normality into my maternity leave, tier 4 until May/June isn’t necessary. Adults lives matter too and I’m would not be happy about staying in tier 4 so children can go back to school. As a lot of other posters have said there will be an awakening and realisation once March hits and our lives have been like this for a year then the government will start to feel the pressure that people have had enough.

@november90 me too. So gutted the whole year has been like this :(

@MarinPrime

I know people want the certainty of a specific date to look forward to but things don't work like that in a pandemic. It's impossible to predict anything that far in advance. It depends on the vaccine supply and how effective the vaccine is at reducing infection and transmission, as well as people following the guidelines.

Im finding following the data gives me that framework just as well as a specific date. You can get an idea of dates from that.

Atm i think we are slightly behind the target set for vaccinations of the top 4 priority groups and thats going to have a knock on effect. There are also places which are about 2 to 3 weeks behind London and the SE in terms of the peak. After the first wave areas a few weeks behind London subsequently had additional problems because they hadnt got cases down. This time will be cases AND vaccination programme progress which will be the things that are important. Not all places will have done as well as others.

@Katie517

Tier 4 is lockdown with another name for anyone without school age children. The tier 4 message is stay at home, the lockdown message is stay at home it’s the same thing! I have a 5 month old and I would like to get some sort of normality into my maternity leave, tier 4 until May/June isn’t necessary. Adults lives matter too and I’m would not be happy about staying in tier 4 so children can go back to school. As a lot of other posters have said there will be an awakening and realisation once March hits and our lives have been like this for a year then the government will start to feel the pressure that people have had enough.

Yes same here. I’m not adhering to tier 4, not able to see my family just so schools can open. My child matters too, she needs social interaction and needs to see her family. If they open schools and keep us locked down I’ll be letting my family see her anyway so that she gets what she needs. It’s not just school age children that matter.

I’m not not seeing my family for another year. Once the vulnerable are vaccinated, I’ll be seeing them. What’s the point of the vaccine if they keep restrictions? I’m not expecting mass crowds or concerts or full attendance theatres etc but no-one is going to keep all this up once there’s been a significant vaccine roll out surely??

@Graciebobcat

It would be daft to send the kids back to school in February, April would be more reasonable.

I think the government will want tourism open for the season but will be wary about mass meet ups of 18 - 30s who will still only be getting their first vaccination around then

And what about younger teenagers? I hope they can have some freedom this summer.

Thats the other issue. Until they've vaccinated adults, children aren't going to be having big social opportunities other than in organised frameworks.

Everything will be controlled i suspect for a good while yet

It's important that everyone realises that vaccine no 1 only gives some immunity, the second dose produces the stronger immune response. Also not all people will be made immune by a vaccine even after 2 doses. The Oxford vaccine had about a 2/3 efficacy after 2 doses in the trials. We don't know what the delay between the 2 doses will do either, The Pfizer vaccine was tested with the 2 doses being 3 weeks apart.

@RedToothBrush they’ll disincentive travel eg akin to some Eastern Europe countries with enhanced home checks. However enforced border quarantine like Oz or extended border closure isn’t really an option for U.K. economically.

@MoirasRoses

I’m not not seeing my family for another year. Once the vulnerable are vaccinated, I’ll be seeing them. What’s the point of the vaccine if they keep restrictions? I’m not expecting mass crowds or concerts or full attendance theatres etc but no-one is going to keep all this up once there’s been a significant vaccine roll out surely??

They don't want mutations. That means keeping cases numbers down.

If we get a mutation which vaccinations are inaffective against we are right back to swear one.

These new variants are a game changer and are influencing decision making more than people realise.

The scientists are very very worried about this.

Whether the government actually listen is another matter.

Hancock has said that one of the criteria of reopening schools is related to there being no new varients taking hold in the UK. Which is telling...

I think it will be a VERY slow relaxation and withdrawing of restrictions from Easter through to the Winter. We really can't afford to relax things too quickly and end up with rising infections/deaths again.

The restrictions which will stay the longest are the things which can be controlled and policed, i.e. physical premises, etc. They may not all be high risk places, but they can be "controlled" by police, local authorities, etc.

I really don't think Rishi will do anything so stupid as "eat out to help out" again, and I don't think Boris will be telling people to go back to work on public transport! Hopefully, they'll have learned the mistakes of opening up too quickly.

Whatever re-opens, such as for pubs/restaurants, social distancing, drinks only with meals, limited numbers per booking, screens, taking details via track & trace etc., will be the "norm" for most of the rest of the year. Same with shops, many types will be pretty quick to re-open maybe after Easter, but social distancing, queues, masks, click n collect, screens at counters, etc will be with us most of the year.

I think public transport will continue to be operated at much lower levels, but with longer trains (where possible) for most of the year too. (I understand that local circumstances will dictate, i.e. where there are lots of commuters, you need more or longer trains to allow for social distancing).

Can't see schools re-opening until after Easter. Maybe back to restricted year groups between Easter and May bank holiday, with an aspirational hope to return to normal after the May bank holiday (but more likely no return to fully normal until September).

It all depends on the numbers of infections, hospitalisations, and deaths. We need several weeks of sustained falls back down to pretty small numbers, which probably takes us to March/April, and then "baby steps" of relaxations to ensure they don't start to rise again when things are re-opened. We need to maintain low levels via social distancing, restrictions, etc., until the majority of working adults have at least their first dose of vaccine which looks to be mid to late Summer.

I'm pretty optimistic about most things being open by September, i.e. shops, pubs/restaurants , schools & unis, etc, but with some social distancing, masks, etc still in operation in small/confined areas.

why not just set it as 'when cases reach 'x' and there is 'y' spare capacity in the NHS, we will then do a,b,c'. You know, actual numbers and science?

might also give some incentive for the antimask and pro-partying fuckwits to wear masks and not party, and for everyone else to treat them as they deserve.

*back to square one not swear one!

When are people going to wake up and see that the problem isn't a comparatively mild winter virus - IT'S TORIES.

Only the terminally stupid think it's a mild winter virus. This is why we are in lockdown again. Idiots pretending it's only flu and not keeping to the rules are helping it kill people.

@Katie517 couldn't agree with you more. People accepted doing their bit initially but a year or more is inhuman to have your life taken away from you like this x

Ideas that we will be 'back to normal' this side of Christmas, i think are on the optimistic side at this point but that may change as the year progresses.

I genuinely don’t think the British public will stand for another year of hefty restrictions, and definitely not another Christmas of not seeing family. What’s the point in protecting the lives of (predominantly) older people if they don’t get to see their families?

By that stage my parents will be the wrong side of 75 and I suspect they’ll be starting to think they’d rather take the chance and see their grandkids when the time they have left is starting to disappear anyway.

I'm pretty optimistic about most things being open by September, i.e. shops, pubs/restaurants , schools & unis, etc, but with some social distancing, masks, etc still in operation in small/confined areas.

Pretty much where i am.

No festival type events though.

@JabbyMcJabface

Ideas that we will be 'back to normal' this side of Christmas, i think are on the optimistic side at this point but that may change as the year progresses.

I genuinely don’t think the British public will stand for another year of hefty restrictions, and definitely not another Christmas of not seeing family. What’s the point in protecting the lives of (predominantly) older people if they don’t get to see their families?

By that stage my parents will be the wrong side of 75 and I suspect they’ll be starting to think they’d rather take the chance and see their grandkids when the time they have left is starting to disappear anyway.

Im not expecting hefty restrictions but i am expecting somethings until the late autumn.

Just from a selfish point of view, I haven't seen my family including elderly parents for nearly a year now. My mental health is at rock bottom and it seems there is no light at the end of the tunnel.

Only last week they were saying current restrictions could ease in March, but now could go on for months.

Many businesses will never reopen.

The Government and scientists do not care about mental health and the increasing amount of suicides.

Those begging for lockdown to remain until summer must be loaded, have no job worries, big houses and live with or near their loved ones.

@Beefcurtains79

“ I'd be happy to stay in lockdown until autumn to be honest. I'm sick of the uncertainty of 'will we won't we' go back into lockdown. I want it over and done with and if that means another 9 months of lockdown, so be it.”

Let them eat cake eh?

Let me guess. You have a secure job/income and don’t live alone?

Lockdown for 9 months isn’t an option for a huge amount of people.

@RedToothBrush

It will be Tier 4 or 3 at Easter at the earliest.

That means the only difference will be schools will be open in some places.

And they are unlikely to reopen schools AND shops in many places at the same time because of the effect on the R. So you can probably expect T4 in most areas following lockdown (after Easter) and will remain in that for a number of weeks while they see how the R does. And only THEN are they going to even consider reopening shops. (so T3 for the worst hit places is only likely the end of April at the earliest.

We still won't have done enough vaccinations (remember you still need 2 to 3 weeks for immunity to kick in - the scientists won't want to lift restrictions too early for that reason too) and the hospitals and case levels will only be getting back on track around then...

I think T3 is most likely option for many places at the start of May. T2 SHOULD follow relatively soon after that.

But yes I wouldn't be making plans to see many people prior to that. Its not happening. They don't want to fuck it up again.

If only the Government had gone into the November lockdown earlier and ended it more cautiously we would not be in such a bad position now