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Lesson to learn from Israel. Pfizer vaccine less effective than announced

148 replies

Cormoran · 19/01/2021 19:13

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/19/single-covid-vaccine-dose-in-israel-less-effective-than-we-hoped

It is known that a single dose doesn't guarantee whole protection, but Israel's numbers are showing that delaying the second dose might be a losing strategy.

So if any of you has received the first dose but not yet the second, keep acting as if you had received none and stay safe.

OP posts:
HTH1 · 19/01/2021 22:30

This seems a bad strategy, for the same reason we are told to finish every course of antibiotics that we start (I.e. if we don’t, the medicine will become less effective and variants of the germs are more likely).

justasking111 · 19/01/2021 22:31

I assumed it was like vaccinating a puppy, until all innoculations are given, no walkies or mixing with other dogs. We have waited this long so I guess we have to wait somewhat longer.

One thing a vet did say is that if people did not complete a pups innoculations, they would start all over again with a pup. I thought that was interesting if the same applied with the covid jab.

movingonup20 · 19/01/2021 22:32

Our drs is booking the second doses for 3 weeks as per the original schedule. Other health areas are too as I have friends who had second doses this week.

Poppingnostopping · 19/01/2021 22:32

What's also interesting about this is that Israel are working with Pfizer in terms of providing them with all the clinical data on their vaccination programme (including when people develop antibodies on what date if they are in the test group) in exchange for priority access to the vaccine. This might also be a risky strategy if there was some major flaw in the vaccine, but now looks like an extremely good strategy because Pfizer gets the real world data and Israel gets enough vaccine to adhere to the schedule properly.

Three weeks may not have been tested up against two weeks, but the early data from Israel in that article suggests that it would not be good enough at two weeks (15 days, 33% less positivity, I guess that means cases compared with the control?) and doesn't map onto the better efficacy shown in the original trials. I also saw another article, which I can't find now, that shows that antibodies go crazy high after the second dose is given at three weeks, suggesting Pfizer had very good reason to select 3 weeks plus as their point for redosing, although of course, 4 or 6 might equally be great we just don't know.

I'm also guessing the UK isn't going to have the capacity to collect this type of data and so won't know what's going on, especially if they give the second dose at variable times (up to and beyond 12 weeks) and also if they mix vaccines due to lack of availability, perhaps data will be collected on the Oxford vaccine roll-out (she said hopefully).

Cormoran · 19/01/2021 22:33

There is so little info, we must use what we have. And the Guardian is quite reliable while we wait for something to be published on pubmed.

OP posts:
JabbyMcJabface · 19/01/2021 22:34

I think the virus may evade it, or it will not stop transmission. How can they vaccinate an entire population against a new strain every year?😢

They don’t need to. Only those most at risk and the people who care for them (including HCPs). Just like with the flu vaccine.

WiseUpJanetWeiss · 19/01/2021 22:34

@MrsKypp

I'd prefer to follow the manufacturer guidelines. They carried out all the clinical studies, not the UK govt.
The JCVI, MHRA and the Commission on Human Medicines are not the Government.

Independent SAGE agrees that this is the right approach under the circumstances and they are definitely nothing to do with the government.

tobee · 19/01/2021 22:35

I don't think the comparison with a course of antibiotics is correct.

Antibiotics, and their efficacy, has been studied for years. These vaccines have not been obviously. This is just a very limited set of data, studying some information after a very short amount of time.

But the press don't want that to get in the way of a good scare mongering headline.

WiseUpJanetWeiss · 19/01/2021 22:35

@Cormoran

There is so little info, we must use what we have. And the Guardian is quite reliable while we wait for something to be published on pubmed.
The Guardian piece is just reporting. It’s not science journalism by any stretch.
tobee · 19/01/2021 22:36

@Cormoran

There is so little info, we must use what we have. And the Guardian is quite reliable while we wait for something to be published on pubmed.

Yes but that's dangerous because people are coming to conclusions rather than understanding it as interim report and waiting patiently for more data.

2fallsagain · 19/01/2021 22:37

@LizardWar

I think there was a strong suspicion that the current vaccines do not prevent transmission.

Nicola Sturgeon was very clear today that because of this, restrictions will be in place for the foreseeable future, primarily to prevent Long COVID.

She was hopeful that full lockdown will not need to be in force indefinitely. But this is certainly a possibility if there is an escaped mutant.

I'm sorry are you suggesting that sturgeon indicated restrictions could go indefinitely? Really?
justasking111 · 19/01/2021 22:39

I do wonder if the covid vaccine will be given annually like the flu one. If you have to receive both I wonder what that will do to your system.

titchy · 19/01/2021 22:40

@Cormoran

There is so little info, we must use what we have. And the Guardian is quite reliable while we wait for something to be published on pubmed.
Lol. Guardian and reliable are not words often used in the same sentence!
WiseUpJanetWeiss · 19/01/2021 22:44

@Puzzledandpissedoff

The govt scientists tweaked how efficacy was calculated by altering the start day (for immunity) from day 1 to day 10 this upped it from 50% to 90% Totally against what Pfizer did in their trials

I wasn't aware of the UK scientists' "tweaking" the efficacy and wondered if you have a source please?

After all we're constantly told on here how impartial they are and how utterly impervious to government pressure, so if this is true I'd like to know what the motivation might have been?

They haven’t tweaked anything. They have just looked at the data.

For the first several days the infection rate in the vaccinated arm tracked the curve of the unvaccinated arm as you’d expect. From about 12-14 days the vaccinated arm curve levelled off dramatically.

If you consider all of the people in the vaccinated arm who got Covid at any time before the 2nd dose vs. all of the people in the unvaccinated arm who got covid before their 2nd placebo dose that shows approx 50% efficacy overall. But if you consider only the period after 12 days and before the 2nd dose that goes up to 90%. This is the right way to look at it - the lag should be ignored.

WiseUpJanetWeiss · 19/01/2021 22:45

@justasking111

I do wonder if the covid vaccine will be given annually like the flu one. If you have to receive both I wonder what that will do to your system.
Give you immunity to flu and Covid I would think. What else?
Calledyoulastnightfromglasgow · 19/01/2021 22:55

“Hopeful that restrictions wouldn’t be in place indefinitely”.

Really?! Really?!

cuparfull · 19/01/2021 22:57

Realistically people have to accept that the objective was never to stop people getting Covid altogether, but just to prevent many people having serious illness and/or dying and impacting on the health services.
And, hopefully, once we get to 85+% coverage, to reduce transmission rates and reduce risk of catching it.
Thus get as many injections into arms as possible as soon as possible.
Correct me if you will, but isn't the flu vaccination only about 65% effective? So vulnerable folk will still get flu but its less likely to kill.
We just have to get our heads round the fact we will be living with this for a long time and make suitable accommodations/adjustments.

ineedaholidaynow · 19/01/2021 23:05

My DM has now had both doses but the rules are still the same for her as everyone else, she is still in lockdown.

Motorina · 19/01/2021 23:12

@movingonup20

Our drs is booking the second doses for 3 weeks as per the original schedule. Other health areas are too as I have friends who had second doses this week.
My parents GPs are doing this too.

Which means that my mid 80s parents, both with serious heart conditions, have not had any vaccine, inspite of the practice having given more injections than there are 80+ and care homes in their patch.

They are making a big song and dance on their website about how wonderful they are for this decision. I am trying very hard not to be very very angry about this.

BungleandGeorge · 19/01/2021 23:18

I thought it was made very clear that vaccination didn’t change the need for hygiene measures and distancing. It appears that some people think they will be able to do whatever they like post vaccine, never mind the rest of the population who haven’t had it!

The Pfizer results are a bit controversial anyway because it appears that they excluded a whole lot of people with unconfirmed ‘covid like disease’ which if included would have brought their efficacy down. A reduction in severity is still a good outcome

BungleandGeorge · 19/01/2021 23:21

Very few second doses have been given when you look at the official tracker, some places did honour all those booked before the 4th jan or whenever it changed as it was too complex to alter all the appointments

tobee · 19/01/2021 23:39

Have we got any evidence that vaccinated people are ignoring the rules? Or is it just another guess?

boxingdayclearout · 19/01/2021 23:39

There is so little info, we must use what we have. And the Guardian is quite reliable while we wait for something to be published on pubmed.

I strongly disagree. The journalist who wrote the article is a foreign affairs correspondent, not with a scientific background. The Guardian have tended to be a bit biased towards the negative when reporting Covid based stories.

At the end of the day, it's a newspaper, and it's looking for headlines, sensational stories, and sales...

I do agree though that we should wait for published research papers. That's still a wee while away...

Poppingnostopping · 19/01/2021 23:57

www.haaretz.com/israel-news/thousands-of-israelis-tested-positive-for-coronavirus-after-first-vaccine-shot-1.9462478

Here's some more data for you. Not in a published research paper (yet) but they seem to be sharing the data they have as they go along.

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