Lesson to learn from Israel. Pfizer vaccine less effective than announced

[Cormoran]

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/19/single-covid-vaccine-dose-in-israel-less-effective-than-we-hoped

It is known that a single dose doesn't guarantee whole protection, but Israel's numbers are showing that delaying the second dose might be a losing strategy.

So if any of you has received the first dose but not yet the second, keep acting as if you had received none and stay safe.

@LizardWar

I think there was a strong suspicion that the current vaccines do not prevent transmission.

Nicola Sturgeon was very clear today that because of this, restrictions will be in place for the foreseeable future, primarily to prevent Long COVID.

She was hopeful that full lockdown will not need to be in force indefinitely. But this is certainly a possibility if there is an escaped mutant.

Indefinitely?? For real?!

I think the point is , if you have the first dose the chance of you needing hospital treatment if you get covid diminishes ( if you catch it after the 12 day mark, before that you don't have any protection I don't think ? ) , then when you have the second dose it is reduced significantly.
So if you have a massive population of say 66 million people and hospital beds for only 100,000 or so, reducing the number of people needing hospital treatment for covid, becomes a priority when the infection rate is high.

@LizardWar

I think there was a strong suspicion that the current vaccines do not prevent transmission.

Nicola Sturgeon was very clear today that because of this, restrictions will be in place for the foreseeable future, primarily to prevent Long COVID.

She was hopeful that full lockdown will not need to be in force indefinitely. But this is certainly a possibility if there is an escaped mutant.

Stay locked down indefinitely that will never happen

@MadameBlobby

This is hopeless. Wtf is the point of the vaccine id not to do what every other bloody vaccine on the planet seems to do and stop the spread of serious illness. I want the vaccine but to get my life back I’m not going to be that bothered if it’s not actually going to do that and we still have to put up with all this shit. What’s the point?

I can't live locked down indefinitely I won't survive I can't take much more

I'm not at all convinced about this strategy. We are now looking at new variants emerging left, right and centre and, to my mind, having a significant number of semi-vaccinated vulnerable/elderly people in the population is extremely risky. We may find that another mutation renders the Pfizer vaccine ineffective.

Indefinitely?? For real?!

Indefinite can mean either unspecified or unlimited. I'm guessing she means unspecified.

I only know what I read in the paper, I think that about 45% were over 55 and 55% under (if I remember correctly) so not the current target vaccination population, they also screened out people with severe allergies I think which is why the allergy reaction which is not unique to the covid vaccine was not picked up in trials, no-one in the Pfizer trial had a severe allergic reaction but quickly en masse a small effect was found. Most would not have had any severe conditions, and they wouldn't have included care home elderly or pregnant women for really obvious reasons.

That's not to criticise them, of course they would want to establish the effectiveness in a relatively safe but target population, widen it out a bit more in the phase 3 trials, then see how they perform in the real-world. I think the sample is very ethnically diverse which is good.

We know one dose isn't enough. No one has ever said it is

Haven't they?
The govt has said 90% immunity after one dose, what on earth is that telling us all?

The govt scientists tweaked how efficacy was calculated by altering the start day (for immunity) from day 1 to day 10 this upped it from 50% to 90%.

Totally against what Pfizer did in their trials.

I thought that use one dose didn’t be you protection and you had to continue to be careful until you had the 2nd dose

This is bullshit. Sturgeon it'll go on indefinitely?

The Israel vaccines are too early to even know how effective the 2nd dose is. There isn't even evidence for this thread statement. I think it's rubbish.

And. I heard today on the news that ministers are concerned that those who have had the vaccine won't obey the rules. What? Yes done public don't follow the rules. As always. But treat us with some common sense. I had it yesterday and I'm well aware I have to follow the rules. I find it offensive that ministers say this.

Important to remember that a single dose of either mRNA does not reliably protect. Tremendous variability in virus neutralizing antibodies after a single dose so that many would receive zero benefit from a single dose.
Prof Peter Hotez, vaccine scientist.
mobile.twitter.com/PeterHotez/status/1348027853712068609

(mRNA = Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, not AstraZeneca/Oxford. Israel are only using Pfizer.)

The data really hints at less chance of preventing transmission after one dose. The nAb titers are REALLY low until the boost.

I’m talking about transmission rather than severity. It is possible severity is significantly reduced after one dose, but don’t be surprised if the virus can move more easily between people after a single dose. That makes sense to me.
Andrew Croxford, Immunologist.
mobile.twitter.com/andrew_croxford/status/1351600385430073349

(BNT162b2 = the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine.)

The Israel vaccines are too early to even know how effective the 2nd dose is. There isn't even evidence for this thread statement. I think it's rubbish

Pfizer did the trials, they have the experience, if they say 50% after one dose and people need a 2nd dose to get 90% within 3 weeks, thats what we should do.

Arrogance to think otherwise.

The change to the Pfizer vaccine schedule does concern me. I appreciate I have no scientific abilities but do have thoughts and questions. Rightly or wrongly, I see the change in schedule similar to when antibiotics are not taken correctly and antibiotic resistant develops. In my unscientific brain, my concern is that a variant will develop caused by the vaccinated (not fully) and the unvaccinated mixing. The virus will “learn” how to evade the vaccine. I think the risk of this happening is higher as the vaccine schedule which has been studied is not being followed.

I hope this thread doesn't get deleted like the last one about possible problems with vaccines.

These are conversations we absolutely need to have.

The Guardian report is very limited.
How on earth can we truly know yet how effective the Pfizer vaccine is in Israel. The vaccine was only approved about 6 weeks ago. That NOT long enough to draw any conclusions about it. Even if people have received their second dose, it won't be long enough to evaluate if it was effective.
It most likely will be effective, because phase 3 trials concluded that.

Seriously please do not stress too much about this. Only yesterday the Israeli prime minister stated that the vaccine was going well, and it was an exit strategy. So a complete reverse of this news story.

Give it a few more weeks/months and then look at it again

And we have no plan B

I would like to think we are pursuing a zero Covid strategy too😢

The fundamental question - does it prevent serious illness? Have any of those catching it between doses been serious ill in hospital? Cos if not, then job done. It’s all we need it to do right now while we wait for the huge amount data they’ll be collecting to draw more solid conclusions about transmission and continued antibody levels etc etc

People are losing their marbles over these vaccines. It’s not perfect, we don’t have a complete set of data because we haven’t had enough time. But we do know that trials showed if helped enormously against serious illness even after one dose. And that is exactly what the NHS needs right now.

And ps. The vaccines have absolutely been tested on a wide range of people with a huge variety of illness and co-morbidity etc. I was invited on a trial because I have asthma but was actually cut as my asthma was deemed not bad enough for what they need to on. It was really interesting to learn who they were looking for.

We are not perusing a zero covid strategy. It’s not going anywhere.

@HugeAckmansWife

Spokesman on R4 tonight said the studies were v v limited numbers and no conclusions should be drawn.

This!

They have not yet studied 2nd dose after 12 weeks yet!

As usual press and posters on here theorising ahead of the data. Pessimism is their mantra.

@LizardWar

I think there was a strong suspicion that the current vaccines do not prevent transmission.

Nicola Sturgeon was very clear today that because of this, restrictions will be in place for the foreseeable future, primarily to prevent Long COVID.

She was hopeful that full lockdown will not need to be in force indefinitely. But this is certainly a possibility if there is an escaped mutant.

Oh god indefinitely? Lockdown forever?

Israel aren't giving the vaccine after 12 weeks but three weeks according to the Pfizer protocol.

There is not a strong suspicion that transmission could still happen. It is not yet known
*
"Strong suspicion is an understatement."

It is not yet known.*

Lockdown forever. I can’t deal with this!😭

We should have zero Covid policy too. Even though Wankcock says not.

It's not going to be lockdown forever is it, FFS! Get a grip!