COVID deaths recording

[rowmaccerd]

How comfortable are we all that the deaths being recorded are an accurate reflection of mortality because of COVID, rather than people "with" covid who unfortunately would have died anyway.

Is there anywhere other than Gibralter that actually breaks these figures down?

19th January
Deaths with COVID 42
Deaths from COVID 5
Total - 49

The UK would have just published 49 as their figure.

Sorry. Total should be 47.

So 10.64% of the figure the UK would publish are deaths "from" COVID

Doest seem like people want to hear it

twitter.com/GibraltarGov/status/1351524445219926017?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

And the stats published recently on excess deaths

I'm mystified by the of and with business

Also by the 28 days seemingly going to 60.

I have asked my MP and on here but don't seem to get answers that make sense.

It can be very difficult to tease out the "from" and "with".

I'm entirely confident that we have a large number of very real deaths happening that wouldn't otherwise have happened this year without covid, and also that many of these deaths take place 28 days of diagnosis.

@herecomesthsun

It can be very difficult to tease out the "from" and "with".

I'm entirely confident that we have a large number of very real deaths happening that wouldn't otherwise have happened this year without covid, and also that many of these deaths take place 28 days of diagnosis.

That is the point of the post. Given their small population and small number of cases they have teased them out.

"from" is about 10% of "with", so 100ish a day in UK averaged over the last few weeks

@herecomesthsun

It can be very difficult to tease out the "from" and "with".

I'm entirely confident that we have a large number of very real deaths happening that wouldn't otherwise have happened this year without covid, and also that many of these deaths take place 28 days of diagnosis.

I understand that in some cases

But this BMJ article talks about caution in giving the vaccine to the terminally ill.

If you already had a diagnosis of terminal illness and died with Covid, isn't that a clear difference between someone in the pink of health dying of Covid?

They did address this in several press conferences very early last year . Whitty originally said they would do the analysis when it calmed down, I think in late summer he said the deaths were about thirty percent over stated based on their analysis. Because they recorded every death where the patient had Covid, and it was on the death certificate as a secondary cause. So for example if you had stage four cancer and weeks to live and passed away you were still recorded as a Covid death.

Excess deaths though are published and in 2020 it was approx one percent increase over previous years. You can google the death stats for the Uk.

Here’s the link, it’s a very small increase, and in fact by nov last year deaths in the Uk were lower than 2019.

www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/death-rate

I'm about as comfortable about that as many seem to be about not counting any deaths from Covid after 28 days from testing. Maybe the true numbers will be counted one day and we'll all know how many early or unnecessary deaths were brought about by the mishandling of the pandemic in the UK.

@BonnesVacances

I'm about as comfortable about that as many seem to be about not counting any deaths from Covid after 28 days from testing. Maybe the true numbers will be counted one day and we'll all know how many early or unnecessary deaths were brought about by the mishandling of the pandemic in the UK.

Maybe, but I think its safe to assume the numbers will come down dramatically if its ever looked at properly

I think if you look at the excess deaths, compared to previous years, it's hard to argue that we are overstating the number of covid deaths. What else could those deaths be?

You've switched about your "from" and "with" figures compared to the tweet.

They might be 'with' Covid but some of those other health issues could have given those people a longer life than they otherwise will have had. And the fact that the hospitals are full despite other treatments being postponed and the much higher overall deaths than usual point to Covid being a big cause of death!

Maybe, but I think its safe to assume the numbers will come down dramatically if its ever looked at properly.

I disagree. Are you saying that you think there have been significantly more cases counted where Covid wasn't the primary cause of death than people who have eventually died from Covid but after the 28-day cut off? What are you basing this "safe assumption" on?

@Rosemary7391

You've switched about your "from" and "with" figures compared to the tweet.

Good point. So OP do you mean approx 90% rather than approx 10%

@herecomesthsun

It can be very difficult to tease out the "from" and "with".

I'm entirely confident that we have a large number of very real deaths happening that wouldn't otherwise have happened this year without covid, and also that many of these deaths take place 28 days of diagnosis.

Completely agree.

[quote Bluntness100]Here’s the link, it’s a very small increase, and in fact by nov last year deaths in the Uk were lower than 2019.

www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/death-rate[/quote]
Possibly some of the people who died in the first wave realistically had six months or so to live, so November saw a decrease to balance out some of the excess deaths we had already had.

Many vulnerable people also started shielding again at the end of the summer and I felt people were taking the pandemic more seriously at this point than they were in February/March time when it was all so surreal.

You've switched about your "from" and "with" figures compared to the tweet.
A case of reading what you want to read?
People are dying OF covid. They really are OP. It’s not made up. It’s not a conspiracy.
Why do some people refuse to accept that?

[quote Bluntness100]Here’s the link, it’s a very small increase, and in fact by nov last year deaths in the Uk were lower than 2019.

www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/death-rate[/quote]
This is a very misleading post. The 2020 figures are projections by the UN and do not take into account Covid!! I am reading that to mean that the UN projected these figures before Covidxwasxrven on the horizon. I suggest you go and look at the actual data from the ONS.The percentage increase is much much higher than 1%. I cannot work out if you are deliberately posting misinformation?

@Nuffaluff

You've switched about your "from" and "with" figures compared to the tweet. A case of reading what you want to read? People are dying OF covid. They really are OP. It’s not made up. It’s not a conspiracy. Why do some people refuse to accept that?

I don’t think the OP is in any way disputing that some people have died from COVID. They are just asking why the 2 figures (from and with) aren’t published like presumably other countrie(s) are doing.

@HappyFlamingo

I think if you look at the excess deaths, compared to previous years, it's hard to argue that we are overstating the number of covid deaths. What else could those deaths be?

You don't think turfing everyone possible out of hospital in march last year and denying people access to healthcare (or scaring the crap out of them so that they don't access it) might have had some impact on mortality?

I don’t think the OP is in any way disputing that some people have died from COVID.They are just asking why the 2 figures (from and with) aren’t published like presumably other countrie(s) are doing

This. Even Chris witty said there is a difference. It’s his term. It’s not something new or controversial. It doesn’t mean peoooe don’t die from it. But there is a difference between those who die with it v those who die from it.

I remember Vallance right back in March saying you had to look at excess deaths over the whole pandemic so at least 12 months more likely 18 months

I think the really simple way to check this is to google how to fill in a death certificate. What kills you kills you, so it could be a pneumonia, then you go back to work out what caused the pneumonia, was it covid ? that is included on the death certificate. Where you unwell with anything else at the time ? Something that meant you were less able to fight the infection and recover ? That is included too.
Please google how to fill in a MCCD, it explains it very well.