Anyone else thinks that sooner or later we will have to accept herd immunity unless virus mutates out of being dangerous?

[YogaLite]

My friend has just got covid second time, both times unwell, both times confirmed by tests, first time last spring.

Could it be that virus stays in the body and resurfaces when run down, like eg HPV or Lyme?

Even if vax are effective for some, if they have to be repeated every 6-12 months in 2 doses, that's a mammoth task for health services.

We would never know for whom vax is effective anyway so the preventative measures will have to stay for foreseeable anyway but lockdowns are unsustainable long term.
What's left but herd immunity??

Herd immunity is bullshit.

Brazil teaches us this.

This tweet explains:
mobile.twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1349801906420371456

Hope your friend is ok

Well, in that case, maybe it's the case of survival of the fittest?

Well if we wanted to live by "survival of the fittest" we could just scrap all vaccines, universal healthcare provision and the entire benefits system couldn't we?

Coronavirus 19 will always be with us but we dont have to die of it in vast numbers, we just need to hang on a bit longer whilst we roll out this vaccine.

No, I think we should roll out the vaccine to everyone, annually if necessary, bring the number of serious cases / hospitalisations down to a level that the NHS can cope with, then ease our way out of the restrictions, crack on and put this whole sorry farce behind us.

You would do best to read the articles in the Twitter thread posted by inquietant

Even if vax are effective for some, if they have to be repeated every 6-12 months in 2 doses, that's a mammoth task for health services

In short, you can achieve herd immunity from vaccination or natural immunity after infection. What do you think is a bigger task for the NHS, vaccinating 80% of the population or, if we let 80% of the population become infected, caring for the approx 8% of the population that will require hospital treatment?

Vaccinations are a safe path to herd immunity.
The concept of herd immunity means protection for people who can't risk wild infection, that's the point of the vaccination programme. To achieve widespread immunity safely.

I dunno what OP is talking about, but yes I think the future will involve a mix of voluntary vaccinations & ongoing wild infections that mean a status quo of small numbers being harmed.

Herd immunity will be what anti vaxxers and those who cannot for a variety of reasons be vaccinated. Everyone else will have a two shot initial vaccination and then an annual booster. Hopefully it will be enough but it will need to be worldwide that the vaccinations are given.

Given your friend has had it twice, surely that shows there is no immunity for the herd? Look at Manaus in Brazil - huge infection & death in Spring, now being devastated by another wave of mass death.
What you mean by herd immunity is a collapse of health care for all conditions & huge drop in longevity & wellbeing. Is that the world we want to gift to our kids? And remember, you will age into risk - you may think you are invincible to it now, but what about in 5 years, 10 years? What if each time you catch it, there’s a debilitation of your immune function - how many rounds of infection can a healthy person take? We know people are being infected twice within one year - how many times do you throw the dice before you get a bad dose?
There are only 2 ways out of this - very effective mass vaccination or a ZeroCovid strategy.

Maybe we all need to take utmost responsibility ourselves (eg widespread masks) and vaccinations without relying on lockdowns knowing that NHS can't pick up the pieces if we don't?

On big scale, I am sure no government is worrying about individual cases except for own nearest and dearest although they can't openly say that.

The effect of widespread mask wearing on preventing transmission compared to lockdown is tiny. Off the top of my head, I think lockdown reduced the average number of daily contacts an individual has by 70%. That has a huge effect on transmission. You can't catch or pass on a virus if you don't come into contact with an infectious/susceptible individual.

As well as not overwhelming the NHS, we need to reduce the prevalence of the virus to slow the mutation rate. Say a viable variant arises in 1 in a million infections. If you have 1 million people infected each month, that is 1 a month. If you have 20 million people infected each month, that is 20 new viable variants. Furthermore, an epidemic doesn't just stop when the herd immunity threshold is reached, it starts to slow down because each infectious person is infecting less than 1 person. The more people that are infectious at the time we reach herd immunity, the greater the number of people that will still become infected before the epidemic ends.

Herd immunity is what the whole world is going for, but gained via a vaccine, no by natural exposure to the active virus.
Look at the effects of a controlled and minimised exposure of the population is having! Imagine if we had no controls!

But, eventually, in the future, once we are all vaccinated, yes we should find ourselves going on with our lives, and dealing with a few cases as they happen.

Your friend has been very unlucky. I hope she is ok. It is very unlikely to catch it twice. Some data on studies are emerging now that people are going through the second wave. But not impossible.
Your friend will hopefully benefit greatly from the herd immunity, if by any reason her body is not ammounting to a good response against the virus. Hopefully the transmission of the virus will be reduced by this herd immunity, and she will be protected from it by others.
At the moment, we are waiting for the data to be compiled and reported.
Fingers crossed.

I think it's likely more women and children get it multiple times as they get it more mildly.

Could it be that virus stays in the body and resurfaces when run down, like eg HPV or Lyme?

No. You can catch it twice because the natural antibody response fades in roughly 3 months. This is why there is no herd immunity to Coronaviruses or other flus.

Maybe we all need to take utmost responsibility ourselves (eg widespread masks) and vaccinations without relying on lockdowns knowing that NHS can't pick up the pieces if we don't?

How would they be economically better than a lockdown? Once the bodies start piling up people will 'take responsibility for themselves' by stopping all economic activity.

OP, given you clearly don't really understand how the vaccine works or how coronavirus behaves or what the purpose of a lockdown is, why do you have an opinion about what we should do?

There's a flu jab every year. By your logic op we wouldn't bother, it would all be a bit much.

Well @donquixotedelamancha, do you really have to be so harsh?
Ok, we may not gave a PhD in epidemology or even general biology, but people are trying to get their heads around it. They are obeying the rules by staying at home, so have come to MN for a chat over a cuppa. And are asking, and debating.
If you know the answer, you can try to help by explaining in a simple way.
But, why do you have an opinion? Seriously?
Now people are not allowed an opinion! Here we are! And we thought we had lost some freedoms due to covid. But no, due to the all gracious MN "elite", now we are not allowed to think, and don't you dare to write it down!
You are not the only one I have seen chasing OPINIONS!
This is a public forum. No Harvard's Commitee Meeting Room.
Go and have a read of the Human Rights section in the library when you are over there. See if you find something about expressing opinions.

Many people, including all health care workers, already get an annual flu vaccine. Surely it's not a big deal to add on one more?

MushMonster

You misunderstand me. People have the right to whatever opinion they wish. It's great if OP wishes to discuss this topic but I am surprised by her expressing a detailed opinion which a quick Google would reveal was based on some misunderstandings.

I don't understand why a lot of people have such specific opinions about areas they don't understand.

I don't hold opinions on how my car should be fixed by the garage, how good the current England manager is or how best to prepare my Chinese take away because I have no expertise in those areas.

When I don't know about something my opinions are vague and open to correction. That seems unusual.

Aye I often find that it’s always survival of the fittest until you’re not the fittest.....

If immunity does last 6 to 12 months, there will never be herd immunity. A huge number of people would have to catch it every 6 months over and over again to maintain the herd immunity.

I believe they will treat it like the flu, where they vaccinate the vulnerable and elderly each year and everyone else is left to their own devices, or can pay for the vaccine privately. The key thing is to protect the NHS, not protect individuals, so there would be no need to vaccinate every single person as many of us are at such low risk that even if a huge number of (for example) under 30s got it, it wouldnt affect t the NHS.

It is not missunderstanding. If someone is saying that other person has no understanding of a matter and questioning why someone has an opinion, it is directly an implication that they should not, according to the speaker. The sentence is crystal clear.
And if there is something we are all entitled to, that will be our own opinions, to discuss them freely, gather other's opinions, and change our opinion or not.

@SelkieQualia

Many people, including all health care workers, already get an annual flu vaccine. Surely it's not a big deal to add on one more?

Agreed, they could even do them at the same time to save appointments.

@ChocOrange1

If immunity does last 6 to 12 months, there will never be herd immunity. A huge number of people would have to catch it every 6 months over and over again to maintain the herd immunity.

I believe they will treat it like the flu, where they vaccinate the vulnerable and elderly each year and everyone else is left to their own devices, or can pay for the vaccine privately. The key thing is to protect the NHS, not protect individuals, so there would be no need to vaccinate every single person as many of us are at such low risk that even if a huge number of (for example) under 30s got it, it wouldnt affect t the NHS.

For SARS, which was a similar virus, immunity has shown to last for years. If the immunity for SARS Cov 2 (the virus that causes covid) lasts similarly, this would be great for us! I have read that it had more to do with TCells than antibodies. The antibodies test for covid does not seem to be giving all the answers regarding immunity. Let's cross our fingers! Hope for the best, and prepare for the worst!

Appreciate your thoughts.
I don't know what is the uptake of flu vax but even that is based on a kind-of prediction what type might be prevalent so no guarantee the covid prediction for covid vax will be accurate.

As they told us, the virus is here to stay, I wish we knew how we could become naturally resistant to it even if only like asymptomatic people are.

A recent study showed that immunity from infection lasts 5-8 months+.